Since his very convincing election victory last November, and the
sweep of both houses of Congress by the Democrats, President
Obama has dominated the playing field, scoring at will on a
number of budget and programmatic issues and accelerating federal
spending, taxes and debt at levels unprecedented since World War
II.
Still, if the polling data is to be believed, there are clouds on
the horizon. The Obama administration’s alliance with Democrats
on the Hill, which has unleashed this tsunami of red ink, appears
to be the cause of growing unease among Americans occupying the
center-right of the political spectrum.
This past Friday, July 24, was the first time President Obama’s
performance approval rating has ever fallen below 50 percent
among likely voters, according to the
tracking polls at Rasmussen Reports: 51 percent now
disapprove.
Indeed, Rasmussen finds that just 25 percent believe that the
economic stimulus package has helped the economy.
And this Monday, July 27, Rasmussen Reports indicates that their
daily tracking poll
showed that 40 percent strongly disapprove of
President Obama’s performance versus 30 percent who
strongly approve.
Voters are also beginning to reassess the President’s ideological
coloring. “Obama is now seen as politically liberal by 76%.
That’s up six points from a month ago, 11 points since he was
elected, and the highest total to date,” reports Rasmussen.
“Forty-eight percent (48%) now seem him as Very Liberal, up 20
points since he was elected.”
The new USA Today/Gallup poll
shows that 59 percent of Americans say President Obama’s
proposals to address the major problems facing the country call
for too much spending. Fifty-two percent say Obama’s proposals
call for too much expansion of government power. These numbers
are driven primarily by Republicans and independents. Republicans
react negatively to his spending by 90 percent and by 80 percent
to the expansion of government power.
“Of more concern to the Obama administration, perhaps, is the
finding that clear majorities of 66% and 60% of independents,
respectively, say Obama’s proposals involve too much spending and
too much government expansion,” says Frank Newport of the Gallup
organization. Moreover, “Obama receives his lowest approval
ratings (out of seven issues tested in the July 17-19 poll) on
handling the federal budget deficit (41% approve; 55%
disapprove).
Over at WorldNetDaily, brother Patrick
Buchanan asks, “Has Obama’s luck run out?” (July 23).
Hyperbole aside, Buchanan notes that Obama “is 10 points below
where Nixon was after a full year, and on economic issues —
unemployment, the deficit spending — he is under 50 percent.”
“From North Korea to Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran and Honduras,
and from the economy to healthcare to carbon emissions, things
are not going Obama’s way,” says Buchanan.
Will the President continue to defy gravity, using his immense
good will, poise and personality to shepherd an extremely liberal
agenda through Congress? Mr. Newport from Gallup does note “that
two-thirds of Americans believe the challenges Obama faced when
he became president are ‘more serious than the challenges other
new presidents have faced.’” I guess that excludes Abraham
Lincoln or Franklin Roosevelt. Nevertheless, and allowing for
short historical memories, Americans do cut President Obama some
slack given what are very extraordinary and frightening
circumstances.
“The key for the Obama administration will be what happens as a
result of the government spending and activity in the months
ahead,” observes Newport. “If the economy picks up significantly
within the next year and the unemployment rate drops, it will be
easier for the administration to argue that its extreme measures
have been worth it. If, however, the economy stays in the
doldrums, then these data reinforce the conclusion that Obama’s
actions will provide potent fodder for critics to assail in
forthcoming election campaigns.”
Given the American economy’s historic resilience, one has to bet
on some kind of economic recovery. The recent run up of the stock
market seems to divine such an eventuality. But it may be a slow,
jobless recovery. What does that mean in states such as Michigan
and Ohio? Real estate and home foreclosures are still sticky
wickets in California, Nevada, Arizona and Florida.
Another variable in the political equation is: what do the
Republicans have to offer by way of alternatives, both in terms
of policy and candidates? Certainly, the GOP’s gubernatorial
candidates in Virginia and New Jersey are top drawer. But how
solid is its field of congressional candidates across the
country? It takes a horse to beat a horse.
Finally, in the case of the White House itself, the GOP bench is
not very deep, although Romney’s economic background may be just
what the doctor ordered in these troubled times, notwithstanding
his earlier flip-flopping on the right to life. Gingrich would be
fun to watch in presidential debates, but he carries a lot of
personal baggage. Palin and Huckabee, the evangelical wing of the
party so to speak, have strong but narrow constituencies.
The future is not foreordained. I saw a recent report indicating
that if the economy continues to fizzle, Hillary Clinton might
challenge Obama in a primary. For political prognostication, that
is going out on a long limb. Yet, it may be time, at least for
the GOP, to start thinking outside the box.
Paul Ryan (R-WI) for President?
