Political Hay
Will Obama Continue to Defy Gravity?
It depends.
Since his very convincing election victory last November, and the sweep of both houses of Congress by the Democrats, President Obama has dominated the playing field, scoring at will on a number of budget and programmatic issues and accelerating federal spending, taxes and debt at levels unprecedented since World War II.
Still, if the polling data is to be believed, there are clouds on the horizon. The Obama administration’s alliance with Democrats on the Hill, which has unleashed this tsunami of red ink, appears to be the cause of growing unease among Americans occupying the center-right of the political spectrum.
This past Friday, July 24, was the first time President Obama’s performance approval rating has ever fallen below 50 percent among likely voters, according to the tracking polls at Rasmussen Reports: 51 percent now disapprove.
Indeed, Rasmussen finds that just 25 percent believe that the economic stimulus package has helped the economy.
And this Monday, July 27, Rasmussen Reports indicates that their daily tracking poll showed that 40 percent strongly disapprove of President Obama’s performance versus 30 percent who strongly approve.
Voters are also beginning to reassess the President’s ideological coloring. “Obama is now seen as politically liberal by 76%. That’s up six points from a month ago, 11 points since he was elected, and the highest total to date,” reports Rasmussen. “Forty-eight percent (48%) now seem him as Very Liberal, up 20 points since he was elected.”
The new USA Today/Gallup poll shows that 59 percent of Americans say President Obama’s proposals to address the major problems facing the country call for too much spending. Fifty-two percent say Obama’s proposals call for too much expansion of government power. These numbers are driven primarily by Republicans and independents. Republicans react negatively to his spending by 90 percent and by 80 percent to the expansion of government power.
“Of more concern to the Obama administration, perhaps, is the finding that clear majorities of 66% and 60% of independents, respectively, say Obama’s proposals involve too much spending and too much government expansion,” says Frank Newport of the Gallup organization. Moreover, “Obama receives his lowest approval ratings (out of seven issues tested in the July 17-19 poll) on handling the federal budget deficit (41% approve; 55% disapprove).
Over at WorldNetDaily, brother Patrick Buchanan asks, “Has Obama’s luck run out?” (July 23). Hyperbole aside, Buchanan notes that Obama “is 10 points below where Nixon was after a full year, and on economic issues — unemployment, the deficit spending — he is under 50 percent.”
“From North Korea to Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran and Honduras, and from the economy to healthcare to carbon emissions, things are not going Obama’s way,” says Buchanan.
Will the President continue to defy gravity, using his immense good will, poise and personality to shepherd an extremely liberal agenda through Congress? Mr. Newport from Gallup does note “that two-thirds of Americans believe the challenges Obama faced when he became president are ‘more serious than the challenges other new presidents have faced.’” I guess that excludes Abraham Lincoln or Franklin Roosevelt. Nevertheless, and allowing for short historical memories, Americans do cut President Obama some slack given what are very extraordinary and frightening circumstances.
“The key for the Obama administration will be what happens as a result of the government spending and activity in the months ahead,” observes Newport. “If the economy picks up significantly within the next year and the unemployment rate drops, it will be easier for the administration to argue that its extreme measures have been worth it. If, however, the economy stays in the doldrums, then these data reinforce the conclusion that Obama’s actions will provide potent fodder for critics to assail in forthcoming election campaigns.”
Given the American economy’s historic resilience, one has to bet on some kind of economic recovery. The recent run up of the stock market seems to divine such an eventuality. But it may be a slow, jobless recovery. What does that mean in states such as Michigan and Ohio? Real estate and home foreclosures are still sticky wickets in California, Nevada, Arizona and Florida.
Another variable in the political equation is: what do the Republicans have to offer by way of alternatives, both in terms of policy and candidates? Certainly, the GOP’s gubernatorial candidates in Virginia and New Jersey are top drawer. But how solid is its field of congressional candidates across the country? It takes a horse to beat a horse.
Finally, in the case of the White House itself, the GOP bench is not very deep, although Romney’s economic background may be just what the doctor ordered in these troubled times, notwithstanding his earlier flip-flopping on the right to life. Gingrich would be fun to watch in presidential debates, but he carries a lot of personal baggage. Palin and Huckabee, the evangelical wing of the party so to speak, have strong but narrow constituencies.
The future is not foreordained. I saw a recent report indicating that if the economy continues to fizzle, Hillary Clinton might challenge Obama in a primary. For political prognostication, that is going out on a long limb. Yet, it may be time, at least for the GOP, to start thinking outside the box. Paul Ryan (R-WI) for President?
About the Author
G. Tracy Mehan, III served at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in the administrations of both Presidents Bush. He is a consultant in Arlington, Virginia, and an adjunct professor at George Mason University School of Law.
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Melvin| 7.28.09 @ 6:35AM
Do you want to send shock-waves through the electorate, Federal Reserve moguls, the political elites on both sides of the aisle.
Elect Ron Paul for President. Electing Ron Paul would be like give a gasoline enema to the status quo. The place would literally explode.
Ron Paul is the everything that the Republicans and Democrats are not.
Ron Paul believes in fiscal responsibility, less government intrusiveness that would cause a bureaucrat to have convulsions like a dying cockroach.
People, we have absolutely nothing to lose on this. We tried the Republicans who failed miserably, and now the Democrats want to turn us into the European Union, so what's left but to try the Libertarian Party?
Libertarians are not perfect but we are sure a damn sight better than the current parasitic political scum that infests our government like a incurable social disease.
I noted earlier that electing Ron Paul would be like giving a gasoline enema to the political status quo, now who wants to go to WalMart and buy some matches for 2012?
Rocco| 7.28.09 @ 7:03AM
I also tend to think Ron Paul would be the one to clean house, but he would need a sympathetic Congress to enact his program. I don't know how likely that would be, but I would hope for the best.
On another matter, in the run-up to the election, I did a full court press on people I knew, explaining who Obama was, how dangerous he was and what he would likely do. Those who did not vote (not to vote was to vote, in my view), and those who voted for the messiah, I am NOT letting off the hook. I hold them responsible for the predicament our country is in. I remind them at every turn and embarrass them, asking them how they like their "hope and change." More often than not, I don't get an answer or I see a head hung in shame. People who should have known better I hold accountable for this mess, and until they acknowledge their foolishness (several have, thank God), I will continue to hold them accountable.
Agreeing with Melvin's post, I would suggest either the Libertarians or the Constitution Party as alternatives.
Paul Ashley| 7.28.09 @ 7:53AM
Given Congressman Paul Ryan's excellent article in this forum, in which he spelled perfectly the philosophical and economic reasons not to go Obama's route on healthcare, and the better solution, I'd vote for him fro President in a minute. I spoke with his office the other day and suggested that article be given to every GOP congressman to use as talking points.
Soon after that I heard Michelle Bachman on a local radio station blow an open invitation to spell out the GOP alternative, instead reiterating what's wrong with the BO plan, which at this point we all know. She's got good ideas but if they're not voiced, what good are they.
+1 then on PR for Pres!
SeymourGlass| 7.28.09 @ 8:58AM
Looks to me like somebody needs to move to France...
Bruce| 7.28.09 @ 10:21AM
I fully agree with Paul Ashley. Ryan shows that he knows the issues, and can articulate alternative solutions.
franklin| 7.28.09 @ 11:02AM
Obama is not defying gravity. He is being held up by a left-wing media hot-air balloon.
Tim| 7.28.09 @ 11:46AM
You'll know it's on the rocks for Obama when Time and Newseek roll out the race card as excuse for his failures.
Al Adab| 7.28.09 @ 12:09PM
Conservatives have many voices in the fray. While the left mistakes personal popularity for policy strength Conservatives must more clearly articulate their policies whoever the speaker of the day might be. We should not make the same mistake as the opposition in believing all this is about a cult of personality or about the messenger.
If our values are true, if Freedom is of timeless value, then those voices raised together can make the case. Right now, today in America, it is of more importance that the voice is heard than it is who delivers it. Those who follw a "Leader" either a Ceaser or a dictator, and ignore principle do so at all our peril. We stand with the Constitution and with American traditions of Liberty not with the face of the day.
All that being said we are fortunate to have several such spokesmen on the national scene. Who ultimately emerges as future candidates remains to be seen, but some will. When they do, we shoudl support their candidacy as long as they stand for the Constitution and America's way of life.
Steve| 7.28.09 @ 12:35PM
Tim, in case you didn't notice our President, this last week, rolled out the race card. This is always an indication that the liberals are in some kind of trouble. The Cambridge incident looks like a "crisis not to be wasted" by the White House. Rahm Emmanual must be ecstatic given the problems the President is experiencing in the polls and with his health care proposal. I find it amusing that John Conyers finds the diversion of attention from the work in Congress an annoyance.
Tim| 7.28.09 @ 1:20PM
Steve
Yes,but really I thought that was a massive gaffe attributable to his reflexive racialism. He suppressed it during his campaign but obviously his black identity was the thing that carried him to power in Chicago.
I grant you though, now that I think about it, perhaps he did plan it. If so he must have thought he'd be delivering a masterful blow , or taking some sort of victory lap by deliberately and publicly slamming the police.
Too bad then (for Obama), that it blew up in his face like a gag cigar in a Three Sooges short.
End of the world by design| 7.28.09 @ 5:04PM
By Dr. Elias Akleh, Information Clearing House,
In mid 1970s the American Power Elite drew a “Grand Plan” to control and to monopolize global oil and nuclear energy resources, for he who controls energy resources determines the fate of nations. The base of this “Grand Plan” is the invasion of energy rich countries to directly control their resources, and to create subservient governments that would exploit their own people as cheap labor to harvest energy for the United States.
The collapse of the Soviet Union had created a window of opportunity for the United States to ensure and to affirm its global superiority through expansion and controlling energy resources without any real opposition. The attacks of 911 were necessary requirements for the Bush administration to wage a “global war against terror” that would serve as a cover up for American hegemony. President Bush borrowed Mussolini's fascist motto of “If you are not with me, you are against me” and turned it into “You are either with us or with the terrorist” to terrorize weaker nations into accepting American expansions.
Part of the “Grand Plan”, which deals with the Arab World (Middle East) and South East Asia, was handed down to the Bush/Cheney administration for execution. The invasions and destructions of Afghanistan and Iraq are just the beginning. Iran, Syria, and Lebanon are next. Controlling Iran is very important to the American administration. Iran sits on a lake of oil and has large deposits of uranium that, when mined and refined, could make Iran a super global power. Controlling Iran leads to the containment of China (America's greatest competitor), who depends heavily on Iranian oil to satisfy its growing hunger for energy. Geographically Iran makes the shortest and the most economical route for Kazakhstan's oil pipeline from the Caspian Sea ,north, to the Persian Gulf south with all the oil-tankers traffic. Iran also fits perfectly within the line of American hegemony in South East Asia. Listening to Bush's speeches – especially his speech to the United Nation last September 2006- one can detect his “enthusiasm” for “spreading democracy and freedom” into the “despotic Middle East” with Iraq as an example.
The Bush/Cheney administration started its overt aggression against Iran immediately after 911 attacks. Bush described Iran as one of the “axis of evil” sponsoring “terrorist” groups such as the Lebanese Hezbollah and the Palestinian Hamas, who are in reality defending themselves against Israeli aggression. After the American invasion of Iraq the American administration accused Iran of instigating a civil war in Iraq by supporting Shiites against Sunnis, and of opening its borders wide for terrorists to enter Iraq. The administration is accusing Iran of building a nuclear bomb, and is continuously threatening its government to abandon its nuclear “ambitions” or else face dire consequences including nuclear strikes (a paradox of using nuclear weapon to stop the proliferation of nuclear weapons). Condoleezza Rice, the Secretary of State described Iran as a “central bank for world terrorism” that is threatening the stability of the Middle East.
Michael L. Hauschild| 7.28.09 @ 5:16PM
The last paragraph of Mehan’s piece hints at the “Clinton” scenario of comeuppance. However I feel the time frame will be sooner rather than later. A blowup in the issues of State” will give Hillary the window of opportunity, and the means to usurp the Sultan, Lord knows she already harbors the motive.
Hilary| 7.28.09 @ 10:06PM
The Republicans only care about rich people.
They use their Fox News, talk radio, WSJ propaganda machine to brainwash us into believing that "the government" is some sort of alien third party instead of the People themselves.
There are corporations and there are the People (the government). The corporations, via the propaganda machine, divide the People.
Cow Rie| 7.28.09 @ 11:36PM
Who said Obama had a mandate?
Palin has a narrow constituency? Spoken like a moderate republican whimp.
Oh, Hilary....you are a simpleton.
Emo| 7.29.09 @ 10:19AM
""
Hilary| 7.28.09 @ 10:06PM
The Republicans only care about rich people.
They use their Fox News, talk radio, WSJ propaganda machine to brainwash us into believing that "the government" is some sort of alien third party instead of the People themselves.
There are corporations and there are the People (the government). The corporations, via the propaganda machine, divide the People.""
Hilary:
It is the rich who are Democrats. OF the top 25 richest congressional districts, 20 are held by the Rats. Also in case you havent noticed, Obama has been very generous giving bailouts to wall street and industry with very little for the middle class
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