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The Public Policy

Misreading the Numbers

Vice President Joe Biden is the gift that keeps on giving. You really can't say that he's put his foot in his mouth again. That would suggest there's some other place for it. Biden has said the Obama administration "misread" the numbers on how bad the economy was.

Well, they had the full cooperation of the Bush administration in what all acknowledge to have been the most cooperative transfer of power in history. Why did they misread?

Now, the operative question is this: Has Obama's team also misread the numbers on health care reform? The big number, the number which drives all the other numbers is 45.7 million. That's the number of Americans said to be lacking health insurance. If that number is accurate, it's still less than one in six Americans. But is it accurate?

Pulitzer Prize-winning columnist George Will has raised serious questions about that 45.7 million figure. He notes that 39% of the uninsured live in the border states of California, Texas, Arizona, New Mexico, and Florida. An estimated 21% of the uninsured are not U.S. citizens. That's 9.7 million, a huge chunk of that fabled 45.7 million figure.

A further 9.1 million of the uninsured have household incomes of $75,000 or greater. These folks could afford insurance but choose not to be insured. There are, Will notes, 14 million Americans who are already eligible for currently funded programs -- like SCHIP, veterans' benefits, Medicare, and Medicaid.

The more closely we examine these figures, the more that number of 45.7 million begins to melt away, like an iceberg floating south. As long as there have been governments, they have been mesmerized by numbers -- some of which prove to be seriously inaccurate.

Winston Churchill wrote about one of the most celebrated examples of government's self-deception by numbers. During World War I, the British Admiralty weighed in strongly against a convoy system for their merchant ships to meet the threat of death-by-strangulation from Germany's U-boats. The great and powerful Sea Lords said there was no way the Royal Navy could protect all 2,500 voyages per week of merchant ships with their small number of 50-60 Navy destroyers. Convoys would not work, the Sea Lords said adamantly.

With the very life of his country at stake, Churchill showed how the Admiralty's numbers did not hold up. Those 2,500 voyages per week actually included thousands of small ships plying their usual coastal trade. The absolutely essential overseas trade -- Britain's lifeline -- consisted of no more than 120-140 voyages a week. "The whole edifice of [the Sea Lords'] logical argument collapsed when the utterly unsound foundation of 2,500 was shorn away," Churchill wrote. Convoys were instituted -- and saved Britain.

Will the crisis atmosphere about health care also dissipate in the hot glare of more accurate numbers? Will we find the crisis to be rather like that southbound iceberg, or like the Admiralty's inflated 2,500-voyage figure?

We may not think the life of America is in as great jeopardy now as Churchill's Britain was when menaced by the U-boat. But it surely is. If we take a giant step toward government control of health care, we will step irretrievably closer to a regime where government decides who shall live and who shall die. That is a menace quite as threatening as a ring of hostile U-boats.

Letter to the Editor

topics:
Health Care, Barack Obama, Joe Biden

Ken Blackwell is a former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations Human Rights Commission and a senior fellow at the Family Research Council.

Comments

JP| 7.13.09 @ 7:04AM

Once you peel away the illegal aliens (9 million), families who choose not to insure (8 million), the young (9 million), and those eligble for SCHIPS (11 million), you are left with about 8-9 million uninsured.

What the Dems and Obama propose is to spend about $1.2 to $2 trillion (of which they do not have) guarentee that less than 3% of the population has health insurance. Congress probably won't vote on this until Autumn. The GOP has a prime oppurtunity to defeat this attempt by the Far Left to take control of a huge portion of not only our economy, but our lives.

Last month, during an AMA meeting, President Obama was asked by a doctor whether the members of the First Family and Congress would be subject to the Universal Health Care laws they were proposing. Of course the President could not answer the question.

Geoff| 7.13.09 @ 7:22AM

This is written by the same guy who thought that Obama actually "wrote" his two books???
Read the American Thinker to see what a know-nothing Blackwell appears to be, defending the indefensable.

moron| 7.13.09 @ 7:26AM

Misread the numbers?? Name one Congresscritter that read the TARP bill or the Cap and Tax bill!!! ZERO. All should be imprissoned for life. Treason. And the health care bill is not even WRITTEN!! Nor will it be read or understood. Before being allowed to vote all bills must be read and a competency test given with a test score of 95 or greater for being allowed to vote on any bill. What a bunch of retards.

Robert Rosencrans| 7.13.09 @ 7:40AM

All you need is a polar bear on that southbound iceberg wearing a "I survived Al Gore" T-shirt.

Howard| 7.13.09 @ 9:04AM

Please remember that the Democrats motive is not really health care coverage. It is political power. Illegals will be drawn more to the Democrats. Independent GOP leaning doctors will become employees of the state, even if indirectly. Obama aims to achieve a Socialist style country. By controlling more and more sectors of the economy, we will become England circa 1947.

homefry| 7.13.09 @ 10:05AM

Mis read the numbers? So now are they claiming that times are even worse than back when fdr was stinking up the WH? Remember? uhhbama said we were in worse times since the depression, now he says he under estimated that?

Seymour Kleerly| 7.13.09 @ 10:51AM

How about the "misunderestimations" on everything from the Bush Administration! Did you ever write about that!

A Genius Among Us| 7.13.09 @ 12:26PM

President Barack Obama has selected Dr. Regina Benjamin, an Alabama family physician, as the U.S. surgeon general.

Check this video out
http://www.wkrg.com/news/video_external/a_genius_among_us/18757/

Old Texican| 7.13.09 @ 12:43PM

(I have copy/pasted this comment here after having written it this morning under the "reader mail" thread.)

Michael
I am praying sincerely and daily that you are correct that the grass roots can turn our direction.

What I have tried to do here at amspec. is weave a cautionary thread.
On any number of occasions I have advocated for "empty hands" in our refusal to be intimidated.

I have also suggested a (short), national sitdown as a possible signal to the DC jerks that we productive types can only be whipped financially to a degree until we get balky.

I must remind you that the war has already been declared on us. US venture capital has already "gone gualt" as a result.

I must also take you back to economics 101.
There are only two sources of income:
1. Person at (productive) work.
2. Dollars at (productive) work.

Most Americans have not yet "personally" felt the impact of "venture money" going gualt. We all hear that "small business" is the jobs creator...and sustainer in the country...but most folks have not connected the dots quite yet.
.........Venture capital is the life blood of small business...

Obama and crew are selling our children into debt servitude to the Chinese and other foreign opponents such as Saudi Arabia and yes, even Iran, buying oil from them instead of developing our own internal resources.

I believe Obama and crew KNOW they have a limited window to put us under their thumbs. I have never even imagined an administration spending so much "political capital" in such a short period of time. Why do you, sir, think that is?
We have to graduate to economics 303 now.

Certain companies will "buddy up" with the crew in order to be eaten last. (yep)

What happens though AS the millions of small unrepresented...un-lobbied for companies quietly close their doors, or fail to grow and hire?

In ECON. 303, we discover that the "velocity" of dollars changing hands is almost as important as the number of dollars "in the float" in measuring the strength of a free economy.

Many people...many people... have stopped spending anything over subsistence even now.

Most of them are just waiting...waiting...for "common sense" to take over. What if it does not before many many lose everything they have worked for?

Do they all move back to the farm?
Do they bow in servitude to the government and go on the dole?

I certainly do not know.

I do know that "shots fired" is the very worst thing that could happen in our country.

We sometimes forget to look over our shoulder to check out a hostile world outside our borders. For over 60 years, our economy has formed the "benchmark" and foundation for the economies of the world. Our military has been the "cop on the corner".

I can ony conclude that our present congress and administration are doing one of two things.

Either they are absolutely clueless......

Or .....................................WHAT?

So here on am spec (and around) I try to step back from the day to day tempests in a teapot to try to understand the broad outlines of what is happening to us...and pass that understanding on to others. With our 2010 census surely screwed, and legitimate vote counts thrown out across the country, how do you suggest we proceed?

THE MONEY-KING| 7.13.09 @ 1:16PM

The conservatives are on the verge of losing the health care debate, because their mind are too entrenched in support for those likes of those who prefer mutiny over true victory.

****************
20 THE MONEY-KING.

And see some churches of the present day !
The lofty dome of consecrated bricks,
Where all the " orders " in disorder mix,
To form a temple whose incongruous frame
Confounds design and puts the Arts to shame !
Where " styles " discordant on the vision jar,
Where Greek and Roman are again at war,
And, as of old, the* unrelenting Goth
Comes down at last and owerwhelms them both !

Once on a time I heard a parson say,

(Talking of churches in a sprightly way,)

That there was more Religion in the walls

Of towering " Trinity," or grand " St. Paul s,"

Than one could find, upon the strictest search,

In half the saints within the Christian Church !

A layman sitting at the parson s side,

To this new dogma thus at once replied :

" If, as you say, Religion has her home

In the mere walls that form the sacred dome,

It seems to me the very plainest case,

To climb the steeple were a growth in grace;

And he to whom the pious strength were given


THE MONEY-KING. 21

To reach the highest were the nearest Heaven ! "
I thought the answer just ; and yet tis clear
A solemn aspect, grand and yet severe,
Becomes the house of God. Tis hard to say
Who from the proper mark are most astray
They who erect for holy Christian rites,
A gay Pagoda with its tinsel lights,
Or they who offer to the God of Love,
A gorgeous Temple of the pagan Jove !

Immortal Homer nd Tassoni sing

What vast results from trivial causes spring ;

How naughty Helen by her stolen joy

Brought woe and ruin to unhappy Troy ;

How, for a bucket, rash Bologna sold

More blood and tears than twenty such could

hold !

Thy power, O Money, shows results as strange
As aught revealed in History s widest range ;
Thy smallest coin of shining silver shows

X

More potent magic than a conjurer knows !

In olden times if classic poets say
The simple truth, as poets do to-day

Old Texican| 7.13.09 @ 1:35PM

OK Money King

These are no days for clouded poetry.

Please get your thoughts in prose.

Here is prose| 7.13.09 @ 2:25PM

This is an email that I have just sent my conservative friend. He took issue with the fact that I recommended that Obama nominate a Latino for the Supreme Court at my blog, back when he was still trying to figure out who would be his nominee.

What the nomination of a qualified Latino judge does is do away with all the conservative bases phony arguments, because the Republicans tremble with fear of losing more Latino voters.

The Republican Party is in their rut because they refuse to reach out to qualified people like me based on the stereotypes that they create for people like me.

I have been called a socialist, communist, I have also even been told to go get a Gubment job, because they don't won't my kind on their team, so it is my agenda to use my informed knowledge to help the Democrats demoralize the conservative movement until they have no alternative but to reach out to Americans who are deemed to be unworthy of their respect.

I believe with all my heart that the conservatives in American history have been consistently losing because they count out, or under estimate those that Jesus chose to educate.

I said this before; Harriet Tubman was a black ugly former slave who could be easily considered as a good for nothing, but the liberals allowed her to accomplished more than any of today's conservatives because they seen value in her.

In many ways, the same can be true about today’s liberals.

http://www.edexcellence.net/flypaper/images/20080910harriettubman.jpg

CheshireCat| 7.13.09 @ 3:57PM

Obama’s economic plan will work perfectly. I have worked it all out mathematically.

Let me see now, four million times five million is twelve million, and four billion times six billion is thirteen billion, and four trillion times seven trillion is … … oh my! We shall never get to economic recovery and prosperity at that rate! However, the multiplication table doesn’t really apply. Let’s try geography. Iraq borders Pakistan, the center of the Universe was Iraq but now it’s Afghanistan, America has 57 states, Minnesota is in the tropics. No, that’s all wrong, But geography doesn’t really apply either, I’m certain! Let’s try religion. Jews were behind 9/11, Palestinians are victims, Saudi Arabia is our good friend and Islam is a great religion of peace. No, that’s all wrong too! Maybe if Obama just starts over and this time he reads the directions then perhaps directly he will be able to direct us all in the right direction.

JeffW| 7.13.09 @ 4:03PM

Sorry Prose,
You might want to take another look at which party plays the racism game and uses those they claim to help. Try researching which parties where for slavery, which party actually pushed to give voting rights etc. All I see from your post is spouting of the same, victimhood liberal slant that all conservatives are bad. I prefer to give the job to the most qualified person. Not the person that scores the highest on the Affirmitave Action check off sheet. As far as I am concerned race/ethnicity shouldn't even be on a job application

Jim M| 7.13.09 @ 4:14PM

By Larry Kudlow, edits (in blue) by Jim Mouradick, RHU (Registered Health Underwriter)


It looks like President Obama’s big-bang health-care reform is going down to defeat. This is good. But my question is why do we need it at all? According to a recent ABC News/USA Today/Kaiser Family Foundation survey, 89 percent of Americans are satisfied with their health care. That could mean up to 250 million people are happy. So why is it that we need Obama’s big-bang health-care overhaul in the first place?

There’s more. According the U.S. Census Bureau, we don’t have 47 million folks who are truly uninsured. When you take college kids (as long as kids are full time students, up to the age of 28, let them continue on as a dependent under their parents’ plan) plus those earning $75,000 or more who chose not to sign up (they have chosen to self insure their health care costs), that removes roughly 20 million people. Then take out about 10 million more who are not U.S. citizens (in CA these individuals would qualify and are usually eligible for MediCal and CHIP’s), and 11 million who are eligible for SCHIP and Medicaid but have not signed up for some reason.

So that really leaves only 10 million to 15 million people who are truly long-term uninsured. (actually 6 million, but the self insureds and non-citizens have been added back, but true long term uninsured’s who cannot afford coverage would be 6 million---cost to insure them would be under $15 billion annually. Do it with voucher’s that can be used to purchase or for tax credits to make it even for everyone. This would make employee benefits taxable, but the vouchers would /could be used as a tax credit to cover same).


Summary on Uninsureds:

Earning over $75,000, self insured-1 7 million

College Students, cover as dependents-2 13 million

Non-US Citizens-3 10 million

Not signed up, but eligible-4 11 million

Sub Total 41 million

ACTUAL LONG TERM UNINSURED 6 million

1-This group can afford coverage, but have made a conscious decision to self insure their health care

2-Currently, most carriers cover dependent children, if they are full-time students, up to age 25, need to increase this to age 28

3-Almost every adult Non US citizen qualifies for state/federal Medicaid (MediCal IN CA), due to their earnings level. Their children also qualify for super low costs/free state/federal CHIP’s and SCHIP’s programs and/or Medicaid

4-Almost every low income adult US citizen qualifies for state/federal Medicaid (MediCal IN CA), due to their earnings level. Their children also qualify for super low costs/free state/federal CHIP’s and SCHIP’s programs and/or Medicaid

Yes, the (6 million) need help. And yes, I would like to give it to them. But not with mandatory coverage, or new government-backed insurance plans, or massive tax increases. And certainly not with the Canadian-European-style nationalization that has always been the true goal of the Obama administration and congressional Democrats (and where all 300 million of us will end up, as a result of these 6 million uninsureds).

Instead, we can give the truly uninsured vouchers or debit cards that will allow for choice and coverage, and even health-savings accounts for retirement wealth. According to expert Betsy McCaughey, instead of several trillion dollars and socialized medicine, this voucher approach would cost only about $25 billion a year.

But the Democratic agenda has never really been about just the uninsured. And it certainly hasn’t been about real cost-cutting or true market choice and competition. Nor has it been about tort/trial-lawyer reform. Instead, the Democratic agenda has always been a class-warfare, anti-business attack on private-sector doctors, hospitals, insurance firms, and drug companies. It’s all about control, knocking down their profits, and telling them what to do. (Havinga “public option” [Government run health care plan) to “keep the insurers honest” is a canard of the highest order (a: false or unfounded report or story; especially : a: fabricated report b: a groundless rumor or belief].


The government, based on history, can NEVER do it better, nor do it for less, EVER. Initially, the government option will be cheaper, because the government can hide their losses for years, and are not accountable for them (see Social Security, or Medicare, or any other government spending/entitlement programs historical cost compared to budgeted costs…they never come in at or under budget, ever). When the government has driven the individual carriers out of business, we will have the single payer plan that all this sham/scheme is designed to bring about. For example, if the government could do it cheaper, they would be paying the Medicare claims themselves (currently done by insurers). The truth is they can’t. They’ve never have been able to, and they never will.


Allowing a “public option” is the passage into a one way revolving door into the single payer world, wherein Doctors and patients will never make medical decisions again. Once the single payer status is achieved, we will look like Canada, function like an HMO in all respects, regardless of what label we put on it.

Because government planners know best, right? Wrong. Absolutely wrong.

Grzmlyk| 7.13.09 @ 4:16PM

You have a blog?

What a great country America is. Someone without a thought in their head can be a blogger.

I'm not aghast at your nonsense, but I shudder to think what the brain scans of your readers must look like.

Then again, two cats and a parakeet aren't expected to think.

Which is why, no doubt, ACORN has registered them as reliable Obama voters.

Grzmlyk| 7.13.09 @ 4:20PM

BTW, my comment is directed at "prose."

Is that you, marcell?

Marcell| 7.13.09 @ 4:55PM

Yeah.

=)

Anthony| 7.13.09 @ 4:57PM

Numbers, schmumbers, so Obama, Geithner & Joe the wonder dog are a little off. Don't you know it was George Bush who told the staff to remove all the zeros from the W.H. computers? No wonder Lord Obama is off to a bit of a slow start. But let's cut Biden some slack here, like most idiot savants, Biden can rattle off the train schedule from Wilmington Del. to D.C., say in February 1947. Bet you folks can't do that, besides, what Biden does is so above your pay grade, you all just wouldn't get it. In fact, you all kinda remind me of Sarah Palin, you know?

Marcell| 7.13.09 @ 5:15PM

JeffW

Conservatism is the epitome of white supremacy. It doesn't take rocket science to realize why the South has shifted dramatically from the Democratic Party to the Republican Party since the 1960's. The equivalent is true about Black Americans who use to solidly support the Republican Party & now overwhelmingly support the Democratic Party.

Most Blacks don't care to equate themselves with the white supremacist rhetoric that most of you right-wingers whole heartedly support, you confederate flag loving Dixiecrats.

Wow, "The Repugs are always trying to misinform people."

Old Texican| 7.13.09 @ 6:28PM

Hey Marcell
What happens to folks like you when we "white supremicists" turn off your money faucet?

You can't live off the money Obama promised you if we don't earn it and get it redistributed.

Living in Texas, I have quite a few friends of the black and hispanic persuasion who feel the same way.

Marcell| 7.13.09 @ 8:16PM

I'd rather earn a living selling out of touch politicians the info they need to win, being that most of you are so deep in the forest that you can't see the trees.

But, I know that people like you are more in the business of seeing people like me sucking off the tit of the Gubment out of fear that one day we may rule the world, & unlock the mysteries / the well known secrets about your kind, something I & others like me could care less to indulge in.

The Bill of rights are far more important that any third world abubica doctrine.

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William| 7.13.09 @ 9:27PM

"We may not think the life of America is in as great jeopardy now as Churchill's Britain was when menaced by the U-boat. But it surely is. If we take a giant step toward government control of health care, we will step irretrievably closer to a regime where government decides who shall live and who shall die."

So true. And that would be a government deserving violent overthrow.

Sic semper tyrannis.

Judge Mentday| 7.14.09 @ 10:33AM

I prefer to give the Supreme Court job to the judge who has the lowerest percentage of cases overturned. Who that is, we'll never know, because that's not in BO's agenda. For all we know, it may be a hispanic woman! How about a little due dilligence!

Hooray for Moron's truly bi-partisan post. Quit fighting amongst parties and look what's actually going on!

Seer| 7.14.09 @ 10:43AM

Obama talks about countries that "spend less" than the U.S. on health care, but what he doesn't want to explain is how they RATION care to do it.
Take the United Kingdom, which is often praised for spending as little as half as much per capita on health care as the U.S. Credit for this cost containment goes in large part to the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence, or NICE.

What NICE has become in practice is a RATIONING BOARD.

NICE reduces spending by limiting the treatments that 61 million citizens are allowed to receive through the NHS.

A health-care system dominated by government always ends up with some version of a NICE board that makes these life-or-death treatment decisions. The Administration's new Council for Comparative Effectiveness Research currently lacks the authority of NICE. But over time, if the Obama plan passes and taxpayer costs inevitably soar, it could quickly gain it.

Obama claims that he can expand subsidies for tens of millions of Americans, while saving money and improving the quality of care. It can't possibly be done.

The inevitable result of this plan will be some version of a NICE board that will tell millions of Americans that they are too young, or too old, or too sick to be worth paying to care for.

THIS is what happens with a single payer, government CONTROLLED health "care" system!

As Bill Clinton said in 1993 about HillaryCare, this is how to "weed them out" - the elderly and chronically ill- because of COST!!

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TAKEbackMEDICINE.org » More On Numbers and the Illusion of Information links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:

…numbers often quoted as evidence somehow of an inferior healthcare system here in the US. IN keeping with the spirit of that posting, we would like to draw your attention to a great piece on The American Spectator called Misreading The Numbers. Although his aim is to tackle the slurry of numbers being bantered about relative to HCR, he starts with a really great piece of instructive history: “Winston…

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krulayar| 8.11.09 @ 2:56PM

Video update: english version

The sign of The Almighty's arrival: A face in the sky video
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bIsZ9bXqhxA

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