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At Large
Conventional Wisdom on North Korea
Recent judgments about the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) have become instant dogma as far as media commentators and thus the public are concerned. Some may end up as truth, but others are on rather shaky ground. Conventional wisdom is not necessarily a good intelligence guide:
• "The Chinese do not want another war to start with North Korea because hundreds of thousands, maybe millions, of North Koreans will flee across the border to China and Beijing doesn't want to be responsible for these refugees."
Beijing may not want another war to begin between the U.S. and the DPRK, but it's not for that reason. The last thing they want is the American dollar to be depreciated by new major war expenditures. The Chinese hold so much U.S. paper now that the lost value of these holdings would be immense. As for the N. Korean refugees: When did it occur that the People's Republic of China had such a soft heart as to be unwilling to use their own military and security forces to drive unwanted Korean refugees back from where they came?
• "Kim Jong-il is crazy and can't be expected to make logical decisions."
Kim Jong-il may have some exotic tastes -- lobster, cognac, women and westerns (actually he seems to prefer musicals) -- but that's not crazy. He's just your average, everyday, pampered potentate who is quite convinced (by his father, among others) that the United States wants to take over the DPRK in order to add it to its existing "puppet," South Korea. He also has an army of 1.5 million who will fight fanatically for any reason he evolves and can sell to his nearly equally loyal, if ambitious, generals. Kim is petulant, a bit paranoiac, puffed up, but not "crazy."
• "The U.S. can stop North Korea from shipping weapons and perhaps sensitive nuclear hardware to other countries by embargoing its ships."
Even if Washington eventually can get the United Nations to strengthen its sanctions, and granting it may be easier for Pyongyang to ship by sea, that is certainly not the only way N. Korea can export banned goods. As has been pointed out often, China is the DPRK's primary trading partner and it is from that country that Pyongyang now receives most of its food and energy supplies. In turn, much of the exports to China in the form of minerals and certain manufactured products also go by way of rail. The Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) has considerable commercial interests in many economic areas. What would stop it or other Chinese entrepreneurs from accepting rail shipments from N. Korea with convenient bills of lading and then shipping them to third countries?
• "The North Korean army has antiquated artillery and tanks that would be no match for the American and South Korean weaponry, to say nothing of air assets."
One has to hope this is true, but the suspicion exists that the difference in quality of ground weaponry is at the very least equaled by the North's clear superiority in numbers. As far as ground-to-air missiles are concerned, the Chinese and Russians have for many years assisted in their development to defend key installations.
• "The DPRK currently has at least several nuclear devices that could be dropped by air on selected South Korean and Japanese targets. This does not include the in-progress development of nuclear-tipped missiles of medium to long range."
This is perhaps the least understood but the most problematic of issues accepted at the core of North Korea's war-making potential. As a "doomsday" scenario or simply an opening salvo in an offensive war declaration, the first use of N. Korean nuclear weapons just doesn't make military sense. To be fair, however, much that the regime of the Kims has done doesn't make sense in normal terms of logic. But there is the rub. North Korea under Kim Jong-il defies the classic sense of logic yet it fits perfectly with its own logic as an extraordinarily self-defensive nation. The question therefore exists as to why Pyongyang would go to so much trouble in defying the world by building a nuclear arsenal when it could gain so much by not taking that route. The answer may lay in lack of intent to use the weapon while enjoying the respect it offers -- respect that is more important than immediate national economic benefit. Of course, it is also the ultimate instrument of leverage.
It is clear that both the accepted claims and counters suggested are themselves open to challenge. The important thing is to remember all that passes as conventional wisdom should be challenged -- even the challenges to that wisdom.
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Curly Smith| 6.26.09 @ 7:56AM
If the media CW is that "Kim Jong-il is crazy and can't be expected to make logical decisions" then why were the media so insistent that Bush negotiate with him? Or, are they suddenly of the opinion that Clinton made the world less safe with his "cash for nukes" because it only encouraged bad behavior? And, how is the CW on Kim Jong-il any different from the CW on the Mad Mullahs? Why was the media again insistent that Bush negotiate with the other crazy people who can't be expected to make logical decisions? Oh, right, got to protect Obama from the coming excrement storm... poor Obama, he did everything that he could but he was dealing with crazy people.
Big J| 6.26.09 @ 8:07AM
Somebody pinch me, please. I don't like this parallel universe I woke up in on January 20th.
Climate change is destroying our planet, so we MUST pass legislation to stop it, NOW! The economy be damned!
The health care crisis has to be addressed NOW! The government can do a much better job than the private sector addressing this issue. No, it won't be like Medicare or Medicaid. Move along, folks: nothing to see here.
It is perfectly acceptable for a nation with nuclear capability to continually threaten the United States with annihilation and total destruction. WHAAAAT?!
Can this really be happening? The state-run media has obtained laryngitis, the White House says exactly the opposite of what it is really doing, and the Republicans have no spine.
We are in serious trouble here.
Tim| 6.26.09 @ 8:46AM
There is no logical reason for North Korea to start a war. Unfortunately history is full of illogical wars.
The Japanese in 1941 seemed to know that they could raise hell for about 12 months before being swept away. Instead of foregoing war they gambled on us quitting forst.
Thomas| 6.26.09 @ 10:21AM
Kim & Co are not crazy. They are running another giant shakedown against the U.S. And whether the media reports it or not, the DPRK is a wholly owned subsidiary of the PRC. During the '90's, the U.S. tried to buy North Korea off by giving Kim money, oil, food and any number of other things, gratis. Kim took everything and continued developing missilery, nuclear devices and proliferating them. In the new century, they tossed out the UN inspectors, ramped up their nuclear development, and began shooting missiles all over the Sea of Japan. The U.S. response was a lame attempt at multi-party talks, including their sponsor, the PRC. When the expected pay-offs did not materialize under the Bush administration, the DPRK stepped up their campaign under the Obama administration. The question is why?
The answer is simply because the leadership of the DPRK, and most of the rest of the world, do not expect the U.S. to do anything to them except buy them off. Since 1812, no one has ever threatened or attacked the U.S. expecting the U.S. to retaliate. The DPRK is running a protection scam designed to elicit a payoff from the U.S. And, the PRC, always on the lookout for a way to distract the U.S. from their activities, is allowing this continue. The PRC has the power to stop any DPRK activities by simply halting the food and fuel shipments that keep North Korea alive. North Korea does exist in a vacuum anymore than does any other nation on the planet. The problem does not originate in North Korea, but in China. Until the North Korean problem is viewed that way and the PRC is held responsible, nothing will change.
Old Texican| 6.26.09 @ 11:19AM
I read a famous General's words: "One must never bet on what an opponent MIGHT do, but rather plan around what an opponent can and cannot do."
Tony| 6.26.09 @ 11:41AM
One scenario that hasn't been mentioned is perhaps the most likely. Kim's entire purpose in life has been to accomplish what his father failed at - conquering South Korea. Kim wants to go down in history as the great Chosun warrior who "reunified" Korea in the face of the powerful United States. That's what those nukes of his are for. If Kim's death is imminent, an invasion of South Korea is probably equally imminent.
ncatty| 6.26.09 @ 11:59AM
It suits the interest of China to have the Korean peninsula remain divided between North and South. They don't want a united Korea, no matter who would win.
Curly Smith| 6.26.09 @ 12:07PM
If the CW is that Kim Jong-il is crazy then why isn't the media all over Obama for deliberately provoking him by moving a ship based missile defense system to Hawaii? Shouldn't Obama try to deescalate the situation by saying "Nuke Hawaii? Well, OK, if you think that will help your standing in the world community, go ahead, and let me apologize for our actions during the Korean War." instead of "Try it crazy man, our technology is better than your technology! I dare you to try it!!"? And, why aren't the Democrats all over Obama as well? Surely, his actions are much more provocative than Bush's discussions with Poland which outraged the Left and Russia since Russia could easily overwhelm the missile shield.
To build on what Thomas and Tony said... since we strongly suspect that the PRC is pulling the strings, how do we know that this all isn't just a test to gauge how Obama would react to an attack on Taiwan? In a matter of a few months you could see a reunified Korea and China. Who really thinks that we'll anger our largest creditor just when we need to borrow a lot more money to implement Obama's Health Care scheme?
Old Texican| 6.26.09 @ 12:58PM
Curly
You are a smarty pants. I had not even thought that far ahead.
I know some South Koreans though...
...and some taiwanese...
China/N Korea just might play hell trying to root those folks out.
Pyongyang Business Risting| 6.26.09 @ 2:35PM
Big trouble in little China! You wait and see! Teach rookie president a resson he never forget. You wait.
Marc Jeric| 6.26.09 @ 4:29PM
The root of the North Korea troubles lies with Carter, Albright, and the Clintons. Those troubles continued by the Republican wimps Bush & Co. The question today is this: Are we to wait for NK nuclear bombs falling on Seoul or are we ready to stop it before it happens?
Thom| 6.26.09 @ 5:12PM
Conventional Wisdom has enabled more wars and resulted in more needless deaths than any other single cause..... in a part of the world where losing better than ten to 1 over a decade isn't considered losing I wouldn't put my faith in any Western reasoning coming out of the Washington DC area.....
Robert| 6.26.09 @ 5:20PM
Why is obama sending the US missile defense to protect Hawaii? He's scared the Taepo dong might blow the lock off the safe where the Certificate of Live Birth is hidden.
Curly Smith| 6.26.09 @ 7:02PM
Thom said "Conventional Wisdom has enabled more wars and resulted in more needless deaths than any other single cause..."
If I remember correctly, the Conventional Wisdom in 1861 was that there'd be one big battle and the Civil War would be over. Of course, those in the North were absolutely certain that they would win and those in South were absolutely certain that they'd win. Four years and 600000 dead soldiers and an undetermined number of dead civilians later the North limped home in victory.
Conventional Wisdom is a killer...
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Howard| 6.27.09 @ 5:23PM
Good point about Obama not apologizing for the U.S. involvement in the Korean War. I'm sure the Left has it as the North defending themselves from the Imperialist South, therefore invasion. And I'm sure Obama doesn't want to annoy his left wing base. So, an apology first, and then our Great Leader will talk to their Great Leader and peace will ensue.
Richard Baker| 6.28.09 @ 9:57AM
Robert:
Good message. The Kenyan can't have that document ever come to light. The Constitutional crisis would be monumental. The criminal cases would be epic.
Thom| 6.28.09 @ 5:07PM
Conventional Wisdom said the Japanese could not possibly sail across the Pacific and attack us at Pearl successfully or defeat us in a long term conventional war…. Got half that right.
Conventional Wisdom said the Germans could not possibly attack through the Ardennes…. They did it twice, the second time in terrible weather.
Conventional Wisdom said the Allies could not possibly invade France given the weather in the Channel June 5th -12th . Daah…..
Conventional Wisdom said the Germans had nothing left except “old men and boys” around Arnhem in Sept 1944…. The Brits have a different view of "boys" where as the 12 SS Hitler Youth is converned around Caen.
And of Course the Civil War where actually the South knew it couldn’t win using conventional tactics and methods….
The list is endless of professionals letting their desire to be right and unwillingness to admit that they might not be superior to their adversary dictate their conventional wisdom and conclusions. A third of our WWII dead perished in Korea and Vietnam because Conventional Wisdom said we couldn’t lose against a tiny third rate power and people…..
Yes, Conventional Wisdom kills a lot of good people…. An another phrase for conventional wisdom is “yes man”.
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