These are hopeful and perilous times in Tehran. Ever since the blatant fraud of Iran's June 12th presidential election, popular opposition to that country's ruling clerical order has been on the rise, leading more and more observers to wonder whether Iran could really be on the cusp of another revolution.
Maybe so. But any analysis of the current situation in Iran must begin with the acknowledgement that revolutions, properly understood, are notoriously hard to predict. Almost no one in the West accurately forecast the single largest totalitarian collapse in modern history, the fall of the Soviet Union, despite a plethora of Kremlinologists who made it their stock-in-trade to understand the levers of Soviet power. Still, as great thinkers like Hannah Arendt and Eric Hoffer have detailed, there are at least two variables that are useful for gauging the strength and viability of a revolutionary movement over time.
The first is leadership. Ideological movements need charismatic personalities capable of harnessing popular discontent and channeling it in a coherent direction. Three decades ago, Iran's Shah was swept from power by just such a leader, the Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, whose fiery sermons and radical ideas about Islamic government ignited the imagination of dissatisfied Iranians.
Today, things are very different. The mass protests visible on Iran's streets are certainly emotional and evocative, but for the moment they remain chaotic and unfocused. The Iranians participating in them are doing so as individuals, driven by justifiable personal outrage over a stolen election and regime repression, rather than as a collective animated by a coherent political vision. Mir Hossein Mousavi, the soft-spoken "reformist" presidential challenger at the center of the current controversy, has proven to be little help on that score. In his speeches and pronouncements, Mousavi has made clear that his goal is not an abandonment of Khomeini's Islamic Revolution, but what amounts simply to a cosmetic reform of it. More authentic opposition leaders, meanwhile, are notably absent -- a casualty of the West's preoccupation with Iran's nuclear pursuit in recent years, which has allowed the regime to systematically eliminate potential opponents unnoticed and unhindered.
The second variable has to do with the use of force. In authoritarian and totalitarian regimes, the guys with the guns matter a great deal. When those forces remain loyal to their government in the face of public unrest, as they did in China in 1989, the results are often brutal. When they do not -- like, for example, in the case of Ceausescu in Romania -- the regime in power invariably totters and falls.
So it is with the Islamic Republic. Since taking power in 1979, Iran's ayatollahs have put a premium on the use of force as an instrument of domestic politics and foreign policy. Their weapons of choice are the feared Revolutionary Guard and its domestic derivative, the Basij, which cumulatively serve as the enforcers of clerical doctrine. And so far, neither organ shows much sign of parting ideological ways with their longtime leaders, nor do its members give any indication of having second thoughts about turning their weapons on their own countrymen. Until they do, the possibility of a repeat in Tehran of China's bloody Tiananmen Square massacre remains real.
Iran's clerical leaders have said as much. "It must be determined at the ballot box what the people want and what they don't want, not in the streets," Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei warned on Friday. "I call on all to put an end to this method.... If they don't, they will be held responsible for the chaos and the consequences." The regime's brutal crackdown on protesters over the weekend, and the specter of worse yet to come, has made clear that he is a man of his word.
It is still to early to tell if the revolutionary stirrings visible on Iran's streets will wither on the vine. What is already clear, however, is that a struggle is underway for Iran's soul. It will be determined by the coherence and organization of Iran's political opposition -- and by the ruthlessness of the regime that it is confronting.
Driver| 6.22.09 @ 6:56AM
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Alan Brooks| 6.22.09 @ 8:23AM
hope the Revolutionary Guards are killed like National Socialists were in '45.
Son Of Sam| 6.22.09 @ 9:27AM
The downfall of the Evil Empire may or may not have been acurately predicted, but there WERE people who were actively pursuing this goal. Chief among them was the President of the United States of America, Ronald Reagan. Part of the reason that the Wall came down and communism crumbled is beceasue he and others like him worked to help MAKE it happen. they stood foursquare for freedom, and were unapologetically on the side of people the world over who were trying to gain their own. They didn't just sit on the sidelines and mumble spineless, sniveling crapola about not wanting to "interfere". That's a recipe for giving the hardliners the go ahead to crush the protesters in any situation. it's the coward's response to the neighborhood bully.
Now, before all the Kool Aid chugging ObamaNazi clones get their underwear in a knot, try and think a little: no one is saying to send in troops or tanks or planes. What the President should be doing however is to remind the thugs running Iran right now that they are not above the law, that human rights violators the world over have been brought to justice, and as they said in Chicago in '68, "the whole world is watching"
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Alan Brooks| 6.22.09 @ 9:38AM
Ahmadinejad is closer to his 72 baby prostitutes than he knows--a guy in his position eventually goes on a PERMANENT vacation.
Tim| 6.22.09 @ 10:12AM
How can there be a revolution without a leader?
Jeff R| 6.22.09 @ 11:31AM
Supreme Caudillo Ali Khamenei is a man of his word because he doesn't wish to dangle from the end of a rope on a tall tree.
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S.L. Toddard| 6.22.09 @ 2:52PM
Here is a must-read piece - truly insightful and dead-on-target - from a prominent defender of the American Constitution on (what now passes for) the "right wing" movement and the alleged "Liberal" Media:
The predominant attribute of the right-wing movement is self-victimizing petulance over the unfair treatment to which they are endlessly and mercilessly subjected. Last week, C-SPAN broadcast a Commentary Magazine event that almost certainly set a record for most tough-guy/warrior nepotism ever stuffed onto a single panel, as it featured William Kristol (son of Irv and Gertrude), John Podhoretz (son of Norm and Midge), and Jonah Goldberg (son of Lucianne). Jihadis around the world are undoubtedly still trembling at the sight of this brigade of Churchillian toughness.
Exemplifying the deeply self-pitying theme of the entire discussion, Jonah continuously insisted that conservative magazines are so very, very important to the political landscape -- indispensably so -- because conservative voices are frozen out of mainstream media venues by The Liberal Media, so that poor, lonely, stigmatized conservatives can only get right-wing opinion in places like Weekly Standard and National Review. In between Jonah's petulant laments about how conservative opinion cannot be heard in The Mainstream Media, Bill Kristol talked about his New York Times column and his Washington Post column, John Podhoretz told stories about his tenure editing The New York Post Editorial Page and Charles Krauthammer's years of writing a column for Time and The New Republic, and Jonah referenced his Los Angeles Times column. None of them ever recognized the gaping disparity between those facts and their woe-is-us whining about conservative voices like theirs being shut out of The Liberal Media. So important in conservative mythology is self-victimization that they maintain it even as they themselves unwittingly provide the facts which disprove it.
Today, National Review's Andy McCarthy advises readers that -- shock of all shocks -- The New York Times today, for some indiscernible reason, for once actually allowed his opinion to seep into its rigidly leftist pages:
Here's Something You Don't See In the New York Times Everyday [Andy McCarthy]
Namely, my opinion — on the controversy over the Uighur detainees at Gitmo.
He can't just say that he has a contribution in the Times today. Everything has to be accompanied by a self-pitying grievance lest the victimization be undermined. Thus: it's such a shock when one encounters a strong conservative voice like McCarthy's in The Liberal Media. The leftist censoring editors at the NYT must have been out sick yesterday, as only that could explain how they let such a brave right-wing voice slip through. Something like that basically never happens because conservatives are treated so unfairly in the media and are excluded from those venues, and it's specifically shocking and rare that opinions from someone like McCarthy would ever, ever be found in a place like The New York Times:
New York Times, January 29, 2009: "A Steppingstone for Law’s Best and Brightest," by Benjamin Weiser:
“Of all the clubs I’ve ever been in, it’s the best one to be in,” said Andrew C. McCarthy, a 1990s terrorism prosecutor who is now a commentator for National Review, but who leapt to the defense of his Southern District colleague Patrick J. Fitzgerald when he was attacked by conservatives for prosecuting I. Lewis Libby Jr.
New York Times, January 23, 2009, Room for Debate: "The Risks of Releasing Detainees":
The Times reports today on the case of a former Guantánamo Bay detainee who has emerged as the deputy leader of Al Qaeda in Yemen. . . . We asked these experts — several of whom were in earlier discussions on the legal challenges of closing Guantánamo and on the effects that torture charges have on its closing — for their response to this case. . . . Andrew McCarthy, legal affairs editor at National Review.
New York Times, January 13, 2009, Room for Debate: "The Challenges of Closing Guantánamo":
We asked these experts what the hardest challenge the new administration will face, and how that might be resolved. . . . Andrew McCarthy, legal affairs editor at National Review.
New York Times, January 3, 2009: "Early Test of Obama View on Power Over Detainees," by Adam Liptak:
Still, Andrew C. McCarthy, a former federal prosecutor who has generally supported the Bush administration’s approach to fighting terrorism, said Mr. Obama’s hands are tied. He cannot, Mr. McCarthy said, continue to maintain that Mr. Marri’s detention is lawful. “I don’t think politically for him that’s a viable option,” Mr. McCarthy said. “Legally, it’s perfectly viable.”
New York Times, December 5, 2008: "5 Charged in 9/11 Attacks Seek to Plead Guilty," by William Glaberson:
“These guys are smart enough to know that they’re not ever going to see the light of day again,” said Andrew C. McCarthy, a former federal terrorism prosecutor who is chairman of the Center for Law and Counterterrorism in Washington. “I think they’re trying to make as big a publicity splash as they can.”
New York Times, November 24, 2008: "Judge Rules That Suspects Cannot Be Detained Because of Ethnicity," by Liz Robbins:
Andrew C. McCarthy, a senior fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies and a former federal prosecutor, said the ruling “sharpens a question that needs to be addressed: What is the proper consideration of factors like ethnicity in questions of surveillance?
“The police officers want to know what the rules are. It may turn out to be bad to the American people if it tells them to do something that is counter to common sense.” Common sense, Mr. McCarthy said, dictated that the police should be able to take race and ethnicity into account in surveillance.
New York Times, November 21, 2008, "Judge Declares Five Detainees Held Illegally," by William Glaberson:
But Andrew C. McCarthy, a former federal terrorism prosecutor, said the decision highlighted the difficulties of courts’ reviewing wartime decisions about who qualifies as an enemy combatant. Mr. McCarthy said those were decisions “our system of divided powers consigns to military professionals in the executive branch, not judges.”
New York Times, November 14, 2008, "Post-Guantánamo: A New Detention Law?," by William Glaberson:
Some lawyers warn that given the nature of evidence against some Guantánamo detainees, prosecutors may not be able to convict them. “We have lots of information that is reliable, that tells us someone is a threat and that cannot be proved in court,” said Andrew C. McCarthy, a former federal terrorism prosecutor who is now director of the Center for Law and Counterterrorism.
New York Times, August 8, 2008: "With Fewer Terror Trials, Manhattan Court Quiets Down," by Benjamin Weiser:
Andrew C. McCarthy, a former assistant United States attorney who helped to prosecute the landmarks bomb plot, said the Siddiqui case demonstrated that “we’re actually starting to get to a place where we’re developing some coherent principles about which cases ought to go into which system.”
New York Times, June 6, 2008, "Adviser Says McCain Backs Bush Wiretaps," by Charlie Savage:
Andrew C. McCarthy, a National Review columnist who has defended the administration’s legal theories, wrote that Mr. Holtz-Eakin’s statement “implicitly shows Senator McCain’s thinking has changed as time has gone on and he has educated himself on this issue.”
New York Times, September 20, 2007: "Big Terror Trial Shaped Views of Justice Pick," by Adam Liptak:
“The tools we had to charge terrorism were appallingly bad,” said Andrew C. McCarthy, the lead prosecutor. . . .That view, Mr. McCarthy said, has turned out to be naïve, and he has proposed the creation of a new national security court to address the problem. In his Wall Street Journal article last month, Judge Mukasey said Mr. McCarthy’s proposal and similar ones “deserve careful scrutiny.”
In fairness to McCarthy, his whine that his opinion doesn't appear in The New York Times "every day" is, I suppose, technically true. There do appear to be some days -- not many -- that the Times publishes its newspaper without including views from Andy McCarthy (though in January alone, one encountered his opinion in its pages on 4 separate days).
If you subject yourself to the establishment media, there are few things more difficult than avoiding right-wing polemicists (even the supposedly "liberal" cable network, MSNBC, has a 3-hour show hosted by a movement conservative (Joe Scarborough) and only 2 one-hour shows hosted by ostensible "liberals"). The Washington Post Op-Ed page is and has long been a veritable museum showcasing neoconservative tripe. And that's to say nothing of overtly right-wing outlets like Fox News and The Wall St. Journal Editorial Page.
But no matter. Their orgy of self-pitying grievances has no end. As they tell it, unless you read The Weekly Standard or National Review, it's basically assured that you never encounter right-wing opinion, because the media hates them, silences them, and shuts them out. Nothing is rarer than Andy McCarthy's opinion being heard in The New York Times. And the American media -- which even Scott McClellan mocked for being "too deferential" to the Bush administration and which is owned by America's largest corporations and richest elites -- is devoted to proselytizing a leftist agenda. Like everything else, it's all so, so unfair to our stalwart right-wing warriors.
Red Phillips| 6.22.09 @ 5:04PM
I have no doubt that the press is largely left-wing. But it is also tightly centrist. That is why when it does call for opinions from the right it goes to predictable neocon outfits like National Review, the Weekly Standard, or the AEI. Neoconservatism, as essentially a type of liberalism, provides a pseudo foe against which liberalism can, in the words of Sam Francis, "shadow box." What you will not see is the media asking Chronicles Magazine or TakiMag for an opinion or having one of their writers on as a talking head. If you want to know something about American conservatism THE expert on the subject is Paul Gottfried, but when have you ever seen him on TV discussing conservatism? Sadly, the neocon foot soldiers here don't even realize that they are the lap dog of the left, the pseudo opposition.
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DaveS| 6.22.09 @ 8:42PM
Khomeni fomented a revolution from a tent in rural France. Who says a revolutionary leader must be physically among the revolutionaries? Hello, BOH. Oops: sorry, not up to the task.
Pingback| 6.22.09 @ 8:59PM
The Obama Moment: What Iran, Golf, Ice Cream and Hungarians have in common « Jim Blaz links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:
S.L. Toddard| 6.22.09 @ 9:11PM
"I have no doubt that the press is largely left-wing."
The main stream media is mildly "left wing"on social issues, but what it is above all things is an organ of the Establishment, wholly owned by the same corporations that own both major parties. But how is any of it truly antagonistic to the neoconservatives? Whence comes their persecution complex? The MSM is egalitarian, feminist, globalist and interventionist, so that yes it is "left wing" as you and I understand it, but no more so than the neoconservatives. Neoconservatives can be heard barking at the moon, loudly, at all hours of the day in the MSM. The neoconservatives who led the charge to war with warnings about the dire threat posed by Saddam Hussein and predictions of grateful, confetti-tossing Iraqis cheering our soldiers through Baghdad - these depraved and thoroughly discredited charlatans are still given voice in the MSM, despite having been so horribly wrong about so many things that it seems almost unrealistic now that the American public bought it. It's literally embarrassing. Throughout the Bush years the MSM served as a nothing less than megaphone for Bush admin claims and propaganda. There was effectively NO opposition from the MSM during the Bush years, apart from petty, personality-based sniping ("Bush is a dum-dum!"), while all the while acting as stenographers for the White House press secretary. They loyally and faithfully shoveled Bush's justifications for war to the American people like good, worshipful servants - unquestioningly and uncritically. They were accomplices in selling that war to the American people no less than the Democrats and, like the Democrats, they were hardcore enablers of the worst crimes of the Bush presidency.
I suppose it would be correct to say "The MSM, much like the neoconservative-run GOP and the Democratic Party, is 'left wing'". But it remains absurd in the extreme for the neoconservatives to point at the MSM as though they ever formed some sort of antagonistic opposition, or lived up to their proper role as gov't watch dogs, critical of gov't claims, and as a check on the abuse of power. That is a role they have long since abdicated.
John II| 6.22.09 @ 10:02PM
Toddard: I am very troubled by your recent endless postings. I have read them. In other words, I am probably the only person in the universe who has read them--because I doubt that you yourself even read them.
To be "conservative" above all means NOT to be an ideologue: that is, not to be a person who is disconnected from concrete events in deference to preconceived notions about all events.
On a more positive note, to be "conservative" means to respect argument. The two most extreme positions (fanaticism and skepticism) both have something in common: they reject argument. YOU reject argument, Toddard--or rather, you ignore it.
Read one full issue of National Review or The Weekly Standard (both of which are dismissed reflexively by the one called "Red," your alter ego, as "neoconservative") and TELL me: what specifically do you disagree with in what specific issue of which magazine? JUST ONE GODDAM ISSUE, Toddard, of each magazine: stem to stern. Then tell me what SPECIFICALLY you disagree with. TELL me!
And now back to my review of the Creature from the Black Lagoon series, starting in 1954. I am recapitulating my experience at the Kiddie Day Matinee back in the fifties, when a box of popcorn cost a dime and a box of Junior Mints cost a nickel. Perhaps we can at least agree on what ideological predisposition is primarily responsible for the debasement of the currency over the past two generations.
S.L. Toddard| 6.23.09 @ 7:37AM
"Read one full issue of National Review or The Weekly Standard (both of which are dismissed reflexively by the one called "Red," your alter ego, as "neoconservative") and TELL me: what specifically do you disagree with in what specific issue of which magazine? JUST ONE GODDAM ISSUE, Toddard, of each magazine: stem to stern. Then tell me what SPECIFICALLY you disagree with. TELL me!"
No thank you.
Pingback| 6.23.09 @ 10:06AM
Iran’s Election and President Obama’s Response « Mark12ministries’s Weblog links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:
John II| 6.23.09 @ 12:51PM
S.L.: Fair enough. But at least you have to admit that I've inspired you to become laconic.
S.L. Toddard| 6.23.09 @ 2:46PM
"But at least you have to admit that I've inspired you to become laconic."
You know, I always thought the etymology of "laconic" was fascinating. Etymology is something I've always found fascinating, but that word in particular I remember sort of slapping myself on the forehead and exclaiming "No kidding!"
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John II| 6.23.09 @ 4:39PM
In those idiot student evaluations to which the contemporary academic is subjected (another lovely practice bequeathed by the sixties, whereby the responsive student and the slacker both have exactly the same influence on the teacher's fate), one enterprising student complained that my expectations are "relentless and spartan, though I think I probably learned more than I would have otherwise."
Spartan. I'd prefer to think that my disposition is Athenian, but if a student can use that kind of lingo to insult me, I've done my job and I'm happy.
S.L. Toddard| 6.24.09 @ 1:43PM
I always assume "spartan" to mean something akin to "austere". I take it he meant to imply that you conduct your classroom with Spartanic discipline?
You teach HS or college?
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