The relationship between Dmitry Medvedev and Vladimir Putin has
taken a back seat to Russia’s current economic and political
problems. Both men are being judged by their public quite
differently than if there hadn’t been such an avalanche of
negative events.
The economic downturn appeared to be something Medvedev was more
qualified to handle, but his portfolio as president doesn’t not
require him to be in that role. It is Putin as prime minister who
has had to lead the government response in complicated
eco-political matters — often with mixed results. A good example
has been his reaction, or non-reaction, to the emergency appeal
to the European Union and the United States by the president of
Ukraine, Viktor Yushchenko.
The pro-western Yushchenko called for help in keeping legitimate
democracy alive in his country by countering what he
characterized as a “constitutional coup” plotted by his political
rivals, the ambitious PM Yulia Tymoshenko and the pro-Russian
opposition leader (and former PM) Viktor Yanukovych. Hovering
above all this maneuvering is the ever-present threat of
destabilization of the Ukrainian pipeline umbilical cord with
Russia that is so important to both countries.
At another time one could have expected Putin to jump in as
deus ex machina to solve the problem and show his and
Russia’s friendly importance to their neighbor. Instead Putin so
far has stayed clear of the Ukrainian tar pool and concentrated
on Russia’s domestic scene. Medvedev, no fool himself, also found
it more appropriate to focus his attention on the murder of two
law enforcement officials in Dagestan.
Vladimir Putin, playing to his Leningrad home region, however,
decided to assume the role of the stern father figure (aka
old-time Soviet commissar) and react sternly to the shutdown of
three industries in the community of Pikalyovo. He stomped into
town, called a meeting with the industry owners, brought in the
media, and proceeded to “make them an offer they couldn’t
refuse.”
The result was that the good people of Pikalyovo were instantly
reemployed, another economic problem was solved, and Vladimir
showed once again he was the guy who could get the job done.
Putin’s sometimes coarse language and tough guy image played well
when he first arranged for his young heir, Dimi, to take over as
president. It was accepted that Vlad would be able to run the
country with Medvedev fronting the show. But Little Dimi has
shown he’s not the simple toady he was thought to be.
Dmitry Medvedev has displayed an excellent grasp of world
politics, and for that reason has impressed the Russian media
with his acceptability on the global scene. Medvedev’s softer
language and more urbane manner have received high marks from the
better-educated segments of the Russian public, who also favor
his grasp of the academic aspects of Russia’s economy.
The Russian GDP has been down approximately 9.5% in the past
twelve months (as opposed to less than half that amount in the
European Union overall). No amount of intelligence and good
manners, however, makes up for that financial shortfall. The
political blame game appears in full play. Differing approaches
to solving Russia’s economic problems have appeared to cause some
dissension between Putin and Medvedev — fed by rivalry between
their economic advisors.
Recently Putin staffers reportedly have placed the blame at
Medvedev’s door for Russia losing a billion dollar refueling
aircraft contract with India to France’s Airbus A330MRTT. The
PM’s aides said that high-level diplomatic connections with India
on large-scale defense matters fell squarely into President
Medvedev’s corner, yet he was too busy with other things to
properly follow up. This sort of backbiting has become de
rigeur among the competing presidential and prime
ministerial staffs.
On the geo-political front involving the former Soviet Union
(FSU) countries of Central Asia, Medvedev clearly has sought the
lead. Last year Medvedev announced Russia had “privileged
interests” in neighboring countries. In the subsequent months it
became clear that the strategic and mineral-rich nations of
Central Asia were a priority. Kyrgyzstan moved quickly in
February to evict the Americans from their base at Manas and
Medvedev was credited in Moscow with a behind-the-scenes role.
Just this week Putin has sought to regain the international
commerce spotlight from Medvedev by announcing Russia would join
the World Trade Organization only as part of a trade bloc with
Kazakhstan and Belarus. And so it goes.
The scorecard shows that in spite of his continuing special
relation with the security services, Putin appears to have lost a
degree of popular political appeal. Dimi stepping aside for Vlad
in the future is no longer a given.
