In 2001 the hulk of an old Soviet aircraft carrier arrived in
Dalian, China. Having been towed from the Black Sea through the
Bosphorus Strait halfway around the world, the engine-less
warship is now nearing complete modernization. The Chinese have
arrived at the point where they will soon launch their first
operational aircraft carrier and will have taken their first step
in creating a worldwide naval presence.
This aim was made quite clear last week at the 60th anniversary
of the establishment of China's communist naval force. The
Peoples Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) is the actual translation of
the name of the Chinese navy and it was through an official
invitation from this organization that the United States had an
honored place in the ceremony. Recognizing the importance of the
occasion, the U.S. was represented by the Chief of Naval
Operations, Admiral Gary Roughead. Pointedly there was no
Japanese naval representative; they hadn't been invited.
When the Chinese carrier is launched, it will have waiting for it
a complete battle group of guided missile destroyers and escort
frigates, as well as nuclear and conventional submarines along
with support ships. One of Taiwan's principal defense think tanks
has already projected 2015 as the date when Chinese naval power
will be physically capable of challenging the U.S. Navy in the
Taiwan Straits. But even before then the PLAN expect to have a
blue water naval strength operating to protect its sea lanes.
It is estimated that approximately 80% of all imported crude and
refined oil products destined for China passes through the
Malacca Strait that currently is being patrolled by the U.S. 7th
Fleet. China seeks to have a major role in the future in policing
its own strategic economic routes, and projecting force
throughout Asian seas is a top priority. It is not merely a
matter of pride, although that is part of it.
China has felt exceedingly vulnerable at sea ever since the shiny
new modern navy of the Qing Dynasty was destroyed by the Japanese
Imperial Navy in 1894. It's a long time to wait for naval
"social" acceptance and the newly rich PRC has no intention of
waiting a moment longer. China already has ships operating in the
western Indian Ocean and Gulf of Aden, participating in
international anti-pirate operations.
Recent challenges to and harassment of an American intelligence
surveillance vessel in the South China Sea was a signal that the
PRC has no intention of allowing U.S. naval patrols free access
to this region, which Beijing contends is within PRC territorial
limits.
The United States of course insists this area is strictly in
international waters and countered with claims that the Chinese
were building a new advanced nuclear-armed submarine that was
being hidden from world view.
None of these contretemps prevented Admiral Roughead
from being the guest of the commander-in-chief of the PLAN,
Admiral Wu Shengli. After all, just a little more than a year ago
CINCPAC, Admiral Tim Keating, declared in a high level military
meeting in Beijing that an "honest and true friendship" had been
created with his Chinese Communist counterparts. Not too long
afterward the harassment in the South China Sea occurred.
Diplomatic niceties aside, Beijing intends to challenge the
American dominance of the Pacific that has existed since the end
of World War II. The PRC is making an investment in its
international status as an economic power by building a naval arm
that it counts on to become an influential force in its own
right. All of this is merely a reflection of China's ambition to
join the United States and Russia by mid-century as a military
superpower.
The PRC is very conscious of its financial leverage
internationally as well as its obvious role as the United States'
principal banker. The interest its earn annually on the U.S.
Treasury paper it owns can easily be translated into the expense
of modernizing Beijing's naval ability. The PLAN is a major
beneficiary of the changed international financial scene.
There will be many more mao-tai toasts exchanged in the
future between admirals of the U.S. Navy and their PLAN
counterparts -- of that one can be sure. It is equally sure that
the Peoples Liberation Army Navy will grow speedily into a more
modern and powerful force. The days of American dominance in the
Pacific have been challenged. It is no longer if but when Beijing
will reach its naval ambition of equality. Is the U.S.
contemplating anything in response?
