By Quin Hillyer on 4.16.09 @ 6:09AM
The economics of the temporary high.
Let's cut through all of Barack Obama's baloney. His speech on
the economy at Georgetown University on Tuesday was a testament
to the massive ego of a callow leader with grandiose pretensions
bordering on megalomania. Everything he outlined in his vision
for a near-Utopian economic future is designed to come about
through the intervention of a government central planner -- his
own Oneself -- combined with the coercive force of government to
make it happen. It's a promise of economic growth at the point of
a gun, at least tacit if not explicit -- and all as if some
genius in the Oval Office or elsewhere in Washington has the
wherewithal to know exactly how and where to "invest" and to
"regulate" and to "stimulate" and to "reform" (the latter
meaning, in most cases, to have government either take over
something or else kill something it currently considers
politically incorrect).
Others who actually understand economics -- unlike Obama --
already have been pointing out all the flaws in his radical
change we dare not fall prey to. And others doubtless will take
on the task of pointing out all of his speech's fallacious logic,
deliberate misrepresentations, smoke- and-mirrors accounting, and
convenient fictions in political narrative.
What's left for forward-looking conservatives, then, is to figure
out how to keep Obama's false Utopia from becoming a reality
before a somnolent American public wakes up. And we cannot do it
-- absolutely cannot -- unless we understand, and prepare for,
the reality that proto-fascist Keynesian economics will appear to
work in the short term. Conservatives are justly warning that
Obama's economic interventionism is a profoundly dangerous new
opiate that eventually will lead our free economy into a
quivering, junkie-like existence. But we make a big mistake if we
don't realize that opiates do produce a real (if short-term)
high.
All of the cash being pumped into the American and world
economies, literally out of nowhere, through bailouts and
stimulus packages and Federal Reserve actions and
probably-illegal commitments to the International Monetary Fund,
will create an illusion of recovery. By late summer or early
fall, Obama will be claiming credit for the apparent
effectiveness of policies that never were needed in the first
place. And, like any good opiate, its first "relief" will seem to
be substantial and reasonably long-lasting. So watch for
everything to seem on the right track from, say, sometime in
August all the way through next spring -- and for Obama to claim
the mandate due a miracle worker.
Then look for the economy to start slowing down again, just as
the New Deal economy slipped back into the doldrums after the
first shot of FDR's financial heroin wore off. And Obama,
ever-ready, will tell a credulous public that the six prior
months of apparent recovery were proof that he knows what he is
doing, and that the current slowdown is evidence that we need
more of the medicine. He will reprise, almost word for word,
these passages from his Tuesday speech at Georgetown: "All of
this means that there is much more work to be done. And all of
this means that you can continue to expect an unrelenting,
unyielding, day-by-day effort from this administration to fight
for economic recovery on all fronts. But even as we continue to
clear away the wreckage and address the immediate crisis, it is
my firm belief that our next task is to make sure such a crisis
never happens again…."
Like a long-successful drug pusher, Obama will tell us that what
we need is one more shot of his potion, one more sprinkling of
his magic dust. And he'll say that those who would deny Americans
his cure, those benighted and greedy conservatives, are not to be
trusted because it was their fault we had been down-and-out in
the first place. And so he'll frame the election as a choice
between more of his "cure" versus more of the conservatives'
pain. As Billy Joel sang in "Captain Jack," Obama will say "just
another push, and you'll be smiling."
Conservatives must be prepared for all this. Conservatives must
not make the mistake of warning that all will go to hell because
of Obama's outrageously big government, unless we make
clear that we are talking long-term, not short. Otherwise, Obama
and his lackeys at the New York Times and CBS will make
conservatives into Chicken Little-like laughingstocks, falsely
warning that the sky would fall.
And even if conservatives are careful to couch their warnings in
terms that only consider the long term, that distinction will be
of little use to the huge percentage of Americans who these days
(unfortunately) think only in the short term. There's just no way
conservatives can win by making only the argument about
the long-term detriments of Obamanomics. Sure, conservatives can
and should warn about hyperinflation and stagflation.
Conservatives can and should warn about massive debt heaped on
our children and grandchildren. But that can't be our primary
message. Today's text-message attention span and
instant-gratification ethos won't reward that sort of appeal.
Smart conservatives, therefore, will find another overarching
theme. We must find a way to pound home an understanding of the
infringements on liberty that Obamanomics represents. We must
find a way to explain how it would interfere with our own free
choices, how it would mire us in bureaucratic red tape, how it
would lead to rationing of some goods or services we take for
granted.
Barack Obama has cleverly laid out an appealing, overarching
vision. We must lay out a different vision, just as readily
understandable, of how Obama's vision would actually burden us or
restrain us. And we must also explain how we propose to let the
innate genius of the free American people lead us back to
prosperity without central planning by The One who The One has
been waiting for.
Right now, Obama holds more cards than most Washington
conservatives think he holds. We need to know how to play our own
cards far, far more effectively than we so far have done.