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At Large
Rediscovering the Wheel in Afghanistan
Barack Obama has all the makings of a shaky war president.
In the arcane world of covert intelligence operations recruiting assets among enemy targets is a priority. To recruit an agent in a position to influence the actions of the target is an even higher priority. Why is it then that the White House treated as new and unique the issue of developing relations with so-called moderate elements among the Taliban?
The answer appears to lie in the strong desire of Barack Obama to create the impression not only that he is bringing something different to the table of Afghan affairs, but also that he is able to pursue non-lethal mechanisms to “solve” the Taliban’s effort to regain control of Afghanistan. If any of this motivation is true, President Obama surely must know he is rather late in this contemplated effort.
The British military and intelligence already tested this path in the south. The Bush Administration had already authorized covert ops policy along these lines. Pakistani intelligence maintains extensive contact with both moderate and radical Taliban elements. And the Saudis have had long-term dealings with the Taliban leader, Mullah Omar, going back to before 1994 when the Taliban wrested governance away from the corrupt leadership of post-Soviet Afghan officials.
Comparing the Taliban to al Qaeda in Iraq who were forced out of Al Anbar Province by the U.S. military working with local tribes is a non sequitur. The Taliban is made up for the most part of local Pushtun tribal fighters indigenous to the regions in which they operate. The experience in Iraq was quite different.
Considerable hand wringing has occurred over reports such as the March 26 New York Times article that said, “Support for the Taliban, as well as other militant groups, is coordinated by operatives inside the shadowy S-wing of Pakistan’s spy service, the Directorate for Inter-service Intelligence.” From whom else does anyone think the United States has gained intelligence that there might be “moderate” elements eligible for defection within the Taliban ranks?
There are always economic factors that plague insurgencies. They existed among the Viet Cong during the Vietnam War. A program called “Resources and Population Control” was established to exploit this VC vulnerability. Local corruption, however, destroyed any possibility of success of that venture as shall similar efforts announced by President Obama as part of his supposedly new civil assistance approach in Afghanistan. What’s worse than the Obama Administration willful ignorance of history leading them to “reinvent the wheel” is the slavish manner in which the military brass offers no objections.
The one Vietnam program that could be instituted in an Afghan version is the extremely successful “Phoenix Program” aimed at capturing or killing VC cadres. This deadly program was held by North Vietnamese leadership after the war as the most successful of the American efforts to disrupt Viet Cong insurgent activity. (See p. 602 of Stanley Karnow’s Vietnam: A History.)
Obama’s Afghan plan bears striking similarities to the humanitarian efforts attempted during the period of American involvement in Vietnam. Those well-meaning civil and economic programs went for naught in the end. And the amounts of money spent and personnel assigned in Vietnam were far greater than what is envisaged by President Obama for Afghanistan.
While the White House has a very experienced military and diplomatic team in General David Petraeus and Ambassador Richard Holbrooke, the president’s inner political circle appears quite limited in its ability to process adequately the results of its own team’s efforts. As a result, all action in Afghanistan is judged on the basis of how it conforms to the president’s domestic political interests and not to strategic analyses of field assessments.
Al Qaeda was referred to by Barack Obama in terms that suggested it was the manipulating force behind Afghan and Pakistan Taliban activity. This misstatement was created to show a direct link between 9/11 and Obama’s policy now in those countries. It seems there is a disconnection between Obama’s speechwriters and NSC staffers, who know full well that the Taliban is locally larger and far more powerful in Afghanistan and Pakistan than its al Qaeda foreign guests.
The Taliban leadership in Afghanistan and Pakistan has shown its operational patience. Inasmuch as President Obama already has indicated he is not committed to his announced course if it does not appear to be working, it’s in the Taliban’s interest to keep up steady harassment and await the breaking of Obama’s will.
Barack Obama is clearly not at ease as a wartime president. He seeks to characterize all his actions, one way or another, as an exercise in international understanding even when American troops are in the midst of battles abroad. Enemies such as the Taliban sense this military timidity. How the American president reacts in this case is being watched carefully worldwide. So far the enemies of the U.S. are not in the least intimidated. But perhaps that’s Barack Obama’s intention!
About the Author
George H. Wittman writes a weekly column on international affairs for The American Spectator online. He was the founding chairman of the National Institute for Public Policy.
Letter to the Editor View all comments (33) | Leave a comment
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Kitty| 4.3.09 @ 7:04AM
Oh, great, so Barry is trying to fake them out? Let's all pray that TOTUS knows what he's doing.
...
Rocco| 4.3.09 @ 7:21AM
What is telling about this is the line: "What's worse than the Obama Administration willful ignorance of history leading them to "reinvent the wheel" is the slavish manner in which the military brass offers no objections." As a retired officer who spent time in the Pentagon, it has been my observation that too many general officers will tell the President (any President) what he wants to hear in the hopes of winning that next star or a plum command. They betray their trust when they don't give the president the benefit of their knowledge and experience, i.e. ground truth. It's disgusting.
Active Duty Guy| 4.3.09 @ 8:41AM
Careful Rocco, I made the same basic observation months ago on a different thread and a hundred "retired colonels" came at me with flamethrowers set to "burn."
Ignorance of islam not only pervades the American people but it also infects the American military. Unfortunately pointing this out gets you called an alarmist, racist, extremist, kook, etc.
I dunno, when you connect the dots things start to get scary. Unfortunately that's when ostrich-people (I used to call them "sheeple" but I think ostriches is much better) put their heads in the sand, cover their ears and yell "nanananana I can't hear you." The thinking is islam really isn't that bad if I just believe it really isn't that bad. Yeah.
But hey let's keep on the lookout for those "terrorists" with the Ron Paul bumper stickers.
Thomas| 4.3.09 @ 11:04AM
Afghanistan is a mess and probably will be forever. It is the quintessential tribal state. When the US invaded, in 2002, we were assisted by several local warlords. They had no desire for a central government and they have even less desire for one now. They put up with the US presence simply to keep the Taliban from attempting to re-assert their control over the country. They like the country the way it is. With the Kabul government's influence largely limited to a few hundred miles around the capital, the rest of the country is dominated by local tribal warlords. There is no "democracy" in the country and there very likely never will be. This is Afghanistan, now and the way it has been for the last 3000 years.
BHO has a problem with Afghanistan. He used it, and the hunt for the boogeyman Osama Bin Ladin, as the rational for draw-down and withdrawal in Iraq. Now he is stuck with it. He has to appear to be doing something there and he has no idea what to do.
Mr. Wittman mentioned the Phoenix program in Vietnam. Contrary to popular myth, the Pheonix program [as was the ISEX program before it] was not an assassination program. It was an anti-guerrilla program and an early Vietnamization program and it was very successful. Basically, it set up an irregular force of local assets that were provisionally based and controlled by a CIA case officer and a military liason [usually a SEAL in IV Corp and Special Forces in I, II, and III corp]. It was divided into two elements; intelligence gathering, analysis and dissemination and tactical support [shooters]. This could be done in Afghanistan, with the tribal warlords supplying the local assets and US military and intelligence case officers supplying assistance and liaison with US military assets in-country. The up-side of this would be the reduction of US combat forces in Afghanistan. The down-side would be that the power of the local warlords would be greatly increased and the power of the central government in Kabul would be decreased.
There is no right answer to the problems of Afghanistan, except time. Strategically, it holds no importance for the US. Logistically, it could turn into a nightmare for the US. And our continued presence there is causing increased problems for the central government of Pakistan.
We are not going to lose in Iraq. But, we may very well lose all that we have gained so far in Afghanistan, if we are not careful.
DSAMMIS| 4.3.09 @ 11:11AM
Vis-a-vis upper levels of the pentagon. I retired 34 years ago, the end of Nam, and I saw first hand the "political" aspect of upper management at DOD. You didn't get that next star if you weren't on board with the political wonks. Things haven't changed, I guess.
Bram| 4.3.09 @ 11:33AM
The Obama team has skipped step one of military planning - they have not defined a "win." The same mistake Johnson made in Vietnam. I pay attention to this stuff and I have no idea what we are trying to accomplish there. An Iraqi type democracy? With what educated middle class?
I believe that we have already won in Afghanistan. The Taliban and AQ are reduced to making local raids instead of ruling the country planning international acts of terrorism.
Keep some Special Forces and Light Infantry units who can train local forces. Use light troops and air power to hammer bad guys when they come out in force.
Putting mech forces in Afghanistan involves risky logistics and makes them targets - ask the Soviets.
RJ| 4.3.09 @ 11:42AM
First you remove the lawyers from those posts where policy is created, along with rules of engagement. Pull out our troops,reduce troops in Europe, South Korea, and elsewhere. Wait for a major crisis: See then if Obama has a set of ba..s.
I awake from my dream!
Tim| 4.3.09 @ 11:47AM
The answer to Afghanistan is in Pakistan. The answer to Pakistan is in Riyadh.
MT| 4.3.09 @ 2:44PM
'Obama has all the makings of a shaky war president'. Really? I had no idea; The Teleprompter in chief only thinks he has Lincoln's balls.
Aaron| 4.3.09 @ 5:10PM
Bram,
"Keep some Special Forces and Light Infantry units who can train local forces. Use light troops and air power to hammer bad guys when they come out in force.
Putting mech forces in Afghanistan involves risky logistics and makes them targets - ask the Soviets. "
Using light infantry and air power without mechanized infantry and armor only starts to level the playing field. Our job is not to match fire with fire, ours is to unbelievably overwhelm-ask anyone who was in Somalia prior to Oct 1993 and those of us who were there after.
Aaron| 4.3.09 @ 5:18PM
Oh, did I forget to mention that this might be a good time to read up on that overall failure of a mission after the then new democrat pres changed the mission of an ongoing conflict and then pulled chocks and chucked up the deuces after everything went to hell in a hand basket.
Bilderberg Front man| 4.3.09 @ 7:38PM
Obama is not a war President, he's the front man for Wall Street. Obama put on a big show in Europe, not even Hollywood could have done better.
John maszka | 4.3.09 @ 11:15PM
Hello,
I'm doing research on terrorism, and I've put together a pre-survey questionnaire that I'm circulating in order to get feedback on what a non-biased (non-western, white, male) survey might look like. The final survey will go out later this year.
The survey can be accessed at johnmaszka.com/SURVEY.html
Would you post it, and possibly circulate it? I’m very interested in incorporating the views of women, non-whites, and people living outside of America and Western Europe.
I'd appreciate it.
Thanks!
Take care,
John Maszka
Nick| 4.3.09 @ 11:20PM
B.O. is currently searching the White House basement for Ike's teleprompter, so it can tell him what to do in Afghanistan.
Angel| 4.4.09 @ 10:10PM
I guess we need a 'war teleprompter'.
Brian| 4.5.09 @ 1:31AM
"Enemies such as the Taliban sense this military timidity." So what? Hitler sensed Russian military timidity and look where that got him?
The Taliban can't tie their shoes without permission from local warlords. The key to victory in Iraq was winning the support of all the local warlords there. It's no different in Afghanistan in that regards.
Jason Taylor| 4.5.09 @ 2:58AM
"Enemies such as the Taliban sense this military timidity." So what? Hitler sensed Russian military timidity and look where that got him?"
Yeah, and look where that got Russia. Remember?
jaywhite| 4.5.09 @ 10:05AM
The idiot in chief is courting Iran (Yes, the biggest terrorist state which has been at war with the US since 1979) . He is doing this because they will help Iran "solve" the Afghanistan problem . That's the best idea since asking Hitler to help solve the Japanese problem on Dec 7, 1941.
Michele San Pietro| 4.5.09 @ 12:52PM
Thanks to Mr. Obama, the United States has become the laughing stock of the world. In the meantime, the Afghans introduce a medieval law authorizing marital rape and nobody says anything.
Ken Roberts | 4.5.09 @ 2:31PM
We have already witnessed the reaction to the lady in the pants suit from north Korea , and they snub their noses at us as if we not there at all. It will take another Reagan to quell the tripe being built in North Korea . And the Taliban is no one to mess with, the only thing they understand is force and lots of it, they will not be deterred by some social programs in their midst. Now we have a Weblo setting the stage for defeat in Agagnistan . Reagan would have already had the nuke plant shut down in Iran one way or the other.
kenny komodo| 4.7.09 @ 1:04AM
Afghanistan is no Iraq. The terrain is formidable, the indigenous population is much more warlike and they have a history (rather recent if memory serves) of defeating much larger armies. Obambi is going to step into a minefield in Afghanistan and he is already talking about an "exit plan" before actually winning the war. When the number of body bags brought back to America dramatically increases (and as an added attraction is now televised) you can bet that there will be major shake up's in the Obambi administration and ever more finger pointing at President Bush.
MT| 4.7.09 @ 2:50AM
Obumbler owns this now--I will blame him for any setbacks in Afghanistan.
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