Political Hay
Scott Murphy’s Law
Conservatives can’t be effective in opposition until Democrats are running scared.
Bill Clinton began to mimic a broken record: “Tax and spend, tax and spend, tax and spend, tax and spend…” He was on the campaign trail mocking his Republican opponents for their characterization of his economic plans. “That old dog won’t hunt anymore,” the future president scoffed.
On Election Day, Clinton was right. Fears that he might raise taxes once in office didn’t stop him from beating George H.W. Bush, himself a tax-hiker, in 32 states. But once Clinton was in the White House, the old dog proved it could still hunt. When Clinton announced he was shelving his planned middle-class tax cut, the tax dog attacked. “I’ve worked harder than I’ve ever worked in my life to meet that goal,” he lamented in lip-biting glory. “But I can’t.”
Soon the airwaves were filled with denunciations of the “largest tax increase in history.” Bob Dole, then Senate minority leader, even called it the biggest tax increase “in world history.” Alabama Sen. Richard Shelby, a Democrat until after the 1994 elections, greeted a presidential visit to his home state by cracking, “The tax man cometh.”
Democrats outside of safe districts were afraid to vote for the Clinton tax and budget plan. For good reason: they were dropping like flies in the unlikeliest of areas. Republicans elected mayors in Los Angeles and New York City, governors in Virginia and New Jersey. Interim Sen. Bob Krueger of Texas, appointed after Lloyd Bentsen became Clinton’s treasury secretary, voted against the new president’s tax increases. No matter — he lost 2-to-1 to Republican Kay Bailey Hutchison in a special election.
Fast forward to 2009. Once again, a Democratic president and Congress contemplate higher taxes, this time without an eye toward deficit reduction and with far higher spending than Clinton ever contemplated. Relatively few Democrats are worried about voting for Obama’s $3.55 trillion budget; Congressman Joseph Cao, a freshman Republican from Louisiana, is considering voting yes. Polls show some misgivings about the extent of Obama’s borrowing and spending, but broad trust in the president himself.
There’s little in Tuesday’s special election results that should have Democrats running scared. The race in New York’s 20th congressional district is still too close to call, with Democrat Scott Murphy officially clinging to a 65-vote lead over Republican Jim Tedisco with 6,000 absentee ballots hanging in the balance.
How this race will turn out is anyone’s guess. Projections based on county performances by the two candidates favor the Democrats; what we know of the outstanding absentee voters’ political affiliations favor the Republicans. Neither is conclusive. Congressman Pete Sessions of Texas, chairman of the National Republican Congressional Campaign Committee, pointed out that win, lose, or draw Tedisco’s showing compared favorably to recent Republican performances in the district.
But with the exception of John McCain, none of the Republicans to which the NRCC compared Tedisco were remotely competitive. Republicans consistently held this congressional district for almost thirty years, from 1978 to 2006. George W. Bush carried it twice, most recently beating John Kerry by eight points. Now Republicans fight a Democrat who opposes executing the 9/11 murderers to a tie. This is exactly the kind of district where Republicans must win to make Democrats abandon Obama as they once ran from Clinton.
And run they did. In 1993, the Democrats controlled the Senate by 57 to 43 and the House by 258 to 176. (Krueger’s loss changed the composition of the Senate to 56 to 44.) That’s comparable to Democratic congressional margins today. Yet Clinton’s tax increases only cleared each chamber by one vote. Vice President Al Gore cast the tie-breaking vote in the Senate; Marjorie Margolies-Mezvinsky, a Pennsylvania Democrat representing a swing district, was “credited” with the decisive vote in the House.
Every Republican in both houses of Congress voted no, including such moderate-to-liberal Republicans as Jim Jeffords of Vermont, John Chafee of Rhode Island, William Cohen of Maine (a future Clinton Cabinet member), David Durenberger of Minnesota, Mark Hatfield of Oregon, fellow Oregonian Bob Packwood, and Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania. That’s twice as many soft Republican senators as Mitch McConnell must herd.
Nearly forty Democrats voted against Clinton in the House. In the Senate, he was opposed not just by Southern conservatives like Shelby, Sam Nunn of Georgia, and Bennett Johnson of Louisiana but also Richard Bryan of Nevada and Frank Lautenberg of New Jersey. We don’t know how many Democrats will vote against Obama’s budget: only seven House Democrats voted against the final version of the stimulus package and three Democratic senators, two of them fairly liberal, voted against the omnibus spending bill.
The Clinton administration tried many of the same tricks as Obama: they claimed their tax increases fell mainly on the top 1.5 percent of income earners who didn’t pay their fair share under Republican rule. They expanded the earned income credit so they could say they were offering tax cuts, in some cases to people without income tax liability. But Republicans were still able to brand it in the public mind as a tax hike, since it increased the top marginal income tax rate by nearly one-third, raised the gas tax by 4.3 cents per gallon, and slapped income taxes on up to 88 percent of some seniors’ Social Security income.
Although efforts to stop the Clinton tax increase failed — and exaggerated claims about the income-tax hike’s economic consequences came back to haunt Republicans during the Internet boom — the bipartisan opposition stopped some of the worst elements. A BTU-based energy tax was stripped from the bill and health-care reform never ended up being considered as part of the reconciliation process.
Ring a bell? Of course, there are many differences between now and then. Obama is governing in a much worse crisis. Congressional Republicans have less credibility, having stood up to Bush 43 far less often than they did Bush 41 and having recently been in the majority themselves. Obama’s approval ratings remain high, where Clinton’s once-solid ratings had collapsed to 43 percent by June 1993, at an important point in the budget debate.
Whatever grassroots anti-Obama sentiment is evidenced by Twitter-happy conservative bloggers and proliferating anti-tax tea parties, the loyal opposition still has a long way to go. Its Washington contingent will not gain much traction in this Congress until Democrats like Scott Murphy start resembling Bob Krueger and Marjorie Margolies-Mezvinsky.
About the Author
W. James Antle, III, author of the new book Devouring Freedom: Can Big Government Ever Be Stopped?, is editor of the Daily Caller News Foundation and a senior editor of The American Spectator. You can follow him on Twitter @jimantle.
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Don| 4.2.09 @ 8:12AM
The downward slide of the country toward liberalism and socialism started 40-50 years ago in the government schools and universities. We have an ignorant and downright stupid electorate. Until conservatives get a handle on the schools, our country as we know it, will not survive.
whiterb| 4.2.09 @ 8:24AM
Don has a point, a major one. Also the weaker sex is the one taken in by the brainwashing. The gender gap has got us. The democrats have nothing to fear from conservatives. A forward thinking, pragmatic Republican party is another matter.One that understands the the new political realities, and can adjust district by district, and state by state is what would scare them. A party of many big tents, but conservatives are stubborn and delusional, so it will never happen.Kiss the USA goodbye.
Pingback| 4.2.09 @ 9:41AM
The American Spectator : Scott Murphy's Law | Articles Of Law links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:
JP| 4.2.09 @ 9:51AM
Nice Analysis. I don't think 2010 will resemble 1994, however. Perhaps more like 1978. Obama's ace card is his popularity. Like FDR, many in the electorate may just ignore his "mistakes" for no other reason than they think he is a cool, swell guy. Axelrod and company have noticed this in thier polling, which explains President Obama's refusal to leave the campaign mode for that of actually governing. However, this strategy of the "continuous campaign" could actually backfire. Which is why the GOP should be focused on the policies animating from the White House and Pelosi's chambers, and not dwell on supluferous things.
For no better reason than conservative principles, the GOP lawmakers should do everything in thier power to make this recession the Obama Recession. The Democrats are hoping that the loose monetary policies will create just enough economic actvity to save them in the 2010 elections. They know as well as anyone that Geitner and Bernecke have created an inflationary timebomb. They are hoping against hope that it will not go off before the 2010 midterms. It is for this reason that the GOP must stress to the electorate what is in thier near future: hyperinflation brought about by the injection of trillions of borrowed dollars into the global economy. Here are just a few bullet points they could use:
1)Obama's monetary policy is inflationary and that inflation will lead to not only bracket creep in taxes, but act as a tax on all goods and services.
2)At some point the Fed will have to raise interest rates significantly upwards from thier unnatural current low. When that occurs, lending will become more expensive and we could see another credit crunch. Businesses will begin to shed jobs as economic activty dries up.
3)At some point the Federal Goverment will have to pay for its massive defecits. This will occur soone rather than later, and the tax increases will effect everyone. Already Obama and the Dems have planned for a massive transfer of wealth via the Cap and Trade scheme. The price tag for that is estimated at nearly $1.8 trillion/year, or about $3000/household. Taxes once in place never go away.
dudette| 4.2.09 @ 10:49AM
I agree that a nimble Republican party that can adjust district by district could be the key but I also firmly believe that until we can roll back the cultural/educational shift back to traditional values it is going to be an uphill battle and a long one. Not that it isn't worth the fight, but it will require more than us faxing everyday and calling or tone-deaf congress critters to change the landscape back to the '50's. (The best time on earth! at least in my little world). The faxing calling activism has to continue if only as a tourniquet to stop the bleeding until the doctors can take over. I hope I see this in my lifetime.
jharp| 4.2.09 @ 11:06AM
JP| 4.2.09 @ 9:51AM
"For no better reason than conservative principles, the GOP lawmakers should do everything in thier power to make this recession the Obama Recession."
What's this supposed to mean? That conservative principles are to lie and obfuscate?
I've long know this to be true it's just a surprise to see a wingnut openly admit it.
And this is from the group that calls themselves Christians.
JP| 4.2.09 @ 2:11PM
Jharp,
And why not coin this the Obama Recession? In just 75 days he has spent over $5 trillion in borrowed funds; he proposing a $1.8 trillion dollar Cap and Trade scheme that will cost every family $3000 in additional taxes; he has nationalized GM and Chrysler, AIG, and Bank of America. Just yesterday, the Labor Dept announced that another 720,000 jobs lost in March.
Obama has done nothing to create jobs, and one could easily say his efforts will costs perhaps a million more. Obama's defecits in his first 75 days equal Bush's over 8 years and 2 military campaigns. So yes, it is in the GOP's best interests to remind people that Obama now owns the economy and the recession.
JJ Jr| 4.2.09 @ 2:43PM
Y'all,
Don's got a great point: that being the successive three generation brain-washing of students by our worst Stalinist bureaucracy, the public school system.
This has created a situation where whenever the conservatives try to reach for the seed corn to plant an idea, it doesn't take root because so much of the population has been taught WHAT to think, not HOW to think. See the writings of Thomas Sowell for all of the emprical data (especially his early 90s tome).
Frank Natoli| 4.2.09 @ 3:01PM
Don got it right. But the fundamental problem is not education itself, but rather the very mechanism of understanding causality. The majority of the electorate appears to believe in a philosophy of wishful thinking, and if they elect a powerful enough wishful thinker, their wishes will be fulfilled. Democrats excel at wishful thinking, and their candidate Obama beautifully articulated wishful thinking.
A small minority of the electorate can connect the dots between Democrat environmental policy and $4/gallon gasoline or $0.25/kwh electricity.
A small minority of the electorate can connect the dots between Democrat health care policy and skyrocketing insurance and medical costs.
And a small minority of the electorate refuses to be called to the Democrat siren song of class hatred and class envy. They cannot connect the dots between private sector job generation and their own employment opportunity and security.
It's not factual knowledge per se that is lacking. It's the fundamental ability to understand causality that is lacking. With that being the case, he with the best sound bites wins.
PCP Smoker| 4.2.09 @ 6:12PM
"Jim Jeffords, John Chafee, William Cohen, David Durenberger, Mark Hatfield, Bob Packwood, and Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania" .
The mere mention of these cretins raises my blood pressure. The only consolation I have is the knowledge that there were conservatives who stood in the darkness between 1931 and 1955, the year National Review was founded.
Avitar| 4.2.09 @ 6:21PM
"whiterb" argues for a Republican party of me-too Democrats. I have heard this argument by Rinos for 25 years since arriving here in Connecticut and now there are no elected Republicans in state wide or national office. Only the Governor who entered office by the removal of the previous elected Republican Governor is a Republican. The Rinos that served the same causes as the Democrats for example Chris Shays, and Nancy Johnson faded over the years and are now completely gone.
The Republicans have all of the principles that this country was founded on to themselves. Only here or there is there a Democrat who clings to the founding principles. The great liberal media political machine is dying in every city and as powerful as it still is, it will be effectively dead from bankruptcy in four years. Carl Levin's new book dominates the best seller list and you want Republicans to abandon their core? Selling out is a good way to destroy the Republican party nationally the way it has been destroyed here in Connecticut.
Selling the core conservative principles of the founding fathers to the new immigrants is better strategy but the Rinos will have to learn them first.
jharp| 4.2.09 @ 8:08PM
JP| 4.2.09 @ 2:11PM
Jharp,
And why not coin this the Obama Recession?
Because that would be a lie. You stupid lying jackass.
It is the GOP and George Bush who this recession belongs to. And it's a really really bad one. Hoover bad.
And you are repulsive lying conservative scum.
sestamibi| 4.2.09 @ 8:08PM
Avitar--
While it is true that Jodi Rell acceded to the CT governorship upon the resignation of her predecessor John Rowland, she did win a term in her own right in 2006.
By the way, I don't think Carl Levin would have written a book that would rally Republicans around principle. Mark Levin is more like it.
Jim| 4.2.09 @ 9:08PM
jharp,
Thanks for admitting obama is a failure right from the start. He can't assemble a cabinet let alone fix the economy.
jharp| 4.2.09 @ 9:14PM
Jim| 4.2.09 @ 9:08PM
jharp,
"Thanks for admitting obama is a failure right from the start."
And thank you for confirming the stupidity of conservatism. Your post makes no sense, has nothing to do with the subject, and you are nothing but a knuckledragging, toglodyte, wingnut hack.
But by all keep up with your meaningless posts. It'll do nothing but drive away those few visitors here who think for themselves.
Willey| 4.2.09 @ 10:24PM
Whatever you do, don't get on the Obamas' gift list. What a cheap son of a b!tch!
Willey| 4.2.09 @ 10:24PM
Obama is a cheap son of a b!tch!!
Daphne| 4.2.09 @ 10:28PM
Yeah, Whiterb; there are plenty of stupid women--but the white liberal MEN have sold this country down the river. Couldn't have happened without the rich white liberal garbage like the Kennedys and their ilk.
Marc Jeric| 4.3.09 @ 1:22PM
I have a proposal to make to the readers of the American Spectator - and that is to ignore the rantings and name-calling by that Politbiro thug jharp. Let him send his crap to the New York Times where it belongs.
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