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Feature
That '70s Horror Show
Here it comes again — and Jimmy Carter should sue for residuals.
Many economists have been warning that the policies of the last few years under the Bush administration followed by the coming economic populism of Barack Obama will lead the U.S. back into a 1930s-style Great Depression. That group includes my friend and coauthor Arthur Laffer. I wouldn’t go so far. Our current constellation of policies—bailouts, a weak dollar, rising tax rates, windfall profit taxes, bloated economic stimulus bills, and reregulation of markets— looks to me more like a reprise of the 1970s. That decade wasn’t the Great Depression, but the economic results were plenty rotten, delivering the worst performance for the stock market and family incomes since the 1930s. Are we going to see a repeat?
The story actually begins on January 18, 1966. That was the day America hit a gold-plated economic milestone, celebrated as a symbol of post–World War II industrial might and productivity. On that red-letter day, the Dow Jones industrial average (briefly) climbed over 1,000 for the first time in American history.
The Kennedy tax cuts of the 1960s had helped fuel this stock market rally. The Vietnam War had not yet fully escalated or become unpopular, American manufacturing was at its peak, firing on all eight cylinders. Smokestack industries—autos, trucks, steel, chemicals, apparel—were global leaders. The “Made in Japan” label was a tipoff that you were buying an inferior product. Cities like Cleveland, Detroit, and even Newark and Gary, Indiana, were prosperous places and beehives of economic activity.
The American middle class was buying up Zenith color TVs (this was when TVs were still made in America), dishwashers, washing machines, electric garage door openers, and air conditioning for the first time—because it could finally afford such luxuries. John Kenneth Galbraith’s “Affluent Society” had come into its own. And no society had ever experienced such affluence for the great preponderance of the population.
In the late 1960s growth seemed to be unlimited— even preordained. But here’s how far America would slip. In 1966 the Dow stood at 1,000. In July 1982 the Dow hit its low point of just below 800. This meant that over 16 years the stock market lost 20 percent of its value. Adjusting for inflation, stocks lost more than 60 percent of their value. The era of America’s post–World War II economic and military preeminence seemed to have vanished overnight. All you had to do was go back to Cleveland and Detroit and Newark and Gary to see the devastation— the boarded-up houses, the closed factories, the panhandlers, the public housing war zones, the unemployment lines, the drug use. And, perhaps the low point, the Cuyahoga River, which funnels into Lake Erie, caught fire due to residue of industrial waste—much to the delight of late-night comedians.
THE DECLINE STARTED UNDER Lyndon Johnson, who, for the first time in American history, spent more on both guns and butter simultaneously. While escalating the Vietnam War, LBJ unleashed the Great Society welfare state “to end poverty in America.” These programs would go on not just to spend more than $2 trillion over the next two and a half decades, but to depreciate the value of work and family cohesion and create several generation of a permanent American underclass sucked into a cycle of welfare dependency. Poor families on welfare were pushed into 100 percent-plus effective tax rates, because they could lose more money in government benefits from working than they could earn on the job.
LBJ also began the reversal of the supply-side effects of the Kennedy tax cuts. In 1968 he signed a 10 percent income tax surcharge to finance the growing cost of the war in Vietnam. The top tax rate went back up to 77 percent.
At the end of the LBJ presidency came the infamous Alternative Minimum Tax. The Johnson Treasury Department discovered in 1968 that 155 tax filers with adjusted gross income of $200,000 ($1.2 million in today’s dollars) were exploiting loopholes in the tax code to avoid paying any income tax. The Democrat-dominated Congress passed a new shadow tax system called the AMT—which remains a thorn in the side of millions of families today. After four years of the Great Society, by 1968 America wasn’t feeling so great. Next came the Nixon years. Known mainly for Watergate and his foreign policy, Richard Nixon is less well remembered for his catastrophic economic policies. He launched the modern era of the regulatory state with passage of the Clean Air and Clean Water statutes. However well intentioned, they were heavy-handed blows to the solar plexus of American industry, with costs far exceeding benefits from the cleanup legislation.
The 1970s was to be the era of economic strangulation by regulation. In constant 2000 dollars, spending by federal regulatory agencies rocketed from $5.2 billion to $10.2 billion during Nixon’s tenure. By 1979 the spending had zoomed to $13.5 billion. The federal government’s army of snoopers was now regulating everything from the width of doorway entrances to speed limits to the flush capacity of toilets.
In 1971 Nixon closed the gold window—meaning that the U.S. was now officially off the gold standard. Nixon and his advisers believed that the standard was no longer sustainable and that the $35 fixed price of gold that had prevailed since the end of World War II could not be maintained. When the gold window was closed permanently, the dollar was no longer hinged to a hard commodity.
The dollar’s value relative to gold melted down over the next 10 years. In 1971 gold was at $35 an ounce. By 1980 it was selling at more than $800 an ounce—25 times higher. The end of the gold standard began the era of hyper-inflation.
THEN IN AUGUST OF 1971 Nixon imposed one of the most radical interventions into the American free market system in U.S. peacetime history. Nixon’s economic advisers hatched a plan officially titled “The New Economic Policy,” and at its core was a 90-day freeze on wages and prices— which was eventually extended for 1,000 days. There was also a 10 percent tariff on all U.S. imports, in blatant violation of our trade agreements.
The freeze on salaries and prices of goods and services seemed to be an admission that inflation was uncontrollable and that since the market wouldn’t hold down prices, the iron fist of the government would. These price controls exposed a fundamental lack of understanding of how the pricing system in a free market operates. If prices aren’t allowed to rise when the market dictates they should, then shortfalls and waiting lines occur and producers have an incentive to produce less, not more. If prices are held too high, the economy produces too much of the product.
When the price controls were lifted, nine months of pent-up inflation exploded like the cork released from a shaken bottle of Dom Perignon. Clerks stood at ready to put new sticker prices on nearly everything once the clock struck midnight and the price freeze was officially over. At this time, Mr. Nixon and his economic team didn’t understand that inflation was a result of too much money and a falling dollar, not insufficient government mandates. Nixon was also a big spender, with the federal budget up by 50 percent during his tenure. Nixon saw federal spending as stimulatory for the economy, and declared himself and all of us Keynesians. As economist Paul Craig Roberts has noted about that era: “The standard remedy was for government to increase total spending by incurring a deficit in its budget. GDP, it was believed, would then rise by some multiple of the increase in spending.”
Gerry Ford’s policies were hardly an improvement. After the midterm elections in November 1974, Ford faced a Democratic majority whose numbers were staggeringly large. To his credit, Ford vetoed more than two dozen of the Democrats’ more left-leaning spending and regulatory measures, but many of those vetoes were overridden by Congress. But President Ford had no strategy for dealing with rising oil prices in the mid-1970s and so instead he did all the wrong things. In his 1975 State of the Union address he called for a windfall profits tax on oil companies. In December of that year he signed that tax into law as well as an energy bill with price controls and the first-ever fuel efficiency standards on cars. None of these policies worked; their main effect was to curtail domestic production, which played into the hands of the Middle East oil cartel, OPEC.
About the Author
Stephen Moore is a member of the Wall Street Journal editorial board.
Letter to the Editor View all comments (70) | Leave a comment
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Pingback| 3.16.09 @ 7:09AM
Tvs - Tech Test Drive: Panasonic TH-VX100U plasma TV - Silicon Valley | Gadgets And C links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:
Pingback| 3.16.09 @ 7:35AM
That ’70s Horror Show | WhoSayWhatWhen links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:
Robert Rosencrans| 3.16.09 @ 8:04AM
Liberals will argue that the Great Society was money well spent. The facts indicate otherwise. After the Kennedy tax cuts, historical poverty rates which were at 22% began to decline, hitting 14% or so in 1967, coinciding with LBJ's implementation of the Great Society. The term was coined in 1965 and by 1967 the programs were under way.
After 42 years and 7 trillion in expenditures, the poverty rates remain just about where they were in 1967, simply dropping to a little over 12%, indicating that the 7 trillion was wasted, and that the government is doing the wrong things to alleviate poverty.
http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/poverty/histpov/hstpov2.html
Jay Molyneaux| 3.16.09 @ 8:27AM
This lecture ought to be taught in every high school and university in the United States. Not only the economic realities contained herein, but welfare at the terrible cost of the destruction of the African - American family and their now total dependence on government to remain alive at a poverty level. Welfare not only failed to end poverty, it spread it.
One can only wonder to what heights America might have ascended if that 2 trillion dollars that was spent economically enslaving blacks had been spent on productive undertakings?
james23| 3.16.09 @ 9:03AM
A great tour de misery; must reading for younger voters. I have sent copies to my sons.
PS--big typo on p.2, in this line
"In 2000 the prime mortgage interest rate hit an astronomical high of 20.5 percent. " I think the author meant 1980.
dennisl59| 3.16.09 @ 9:35AM
I was a 26 when Carter was elected. Not only was the economy as bad as described, I thought we were going to have a war with the USSR. Yes, folks, it WAS THAT BAD.
Tim Falk| 3.16.09 @ 10:04AM
Perhaps my memory isn't as good as I've thought. I was 20 years old in 1980 and I remember these bad old days. I also seem to recall that "stagflation" was the combination of inflation and a shrinking GDP. Under Keynesian economics, this was not supposed to happen. Stagflation had a great influence on the acceptance of supply side economics and monetarist policies, my shaky memory tells me.
The author is correct (if my memory is also correct) on the definition of the misery index.
Peter R McGrath| 3.16.09 @ 11:33AM
The puzzling aspect to all of the above is that Statist Liberals like our current POTUS continue to believe that our wonderful Federal Government is capable of spreading other people's money around to solve national problems. Quite to the contrary, the American people have demonstrated, time and again, that they are perfectly capable of achieving self-actualized spiritual and temporal success despite the well intentioned, ham fisted, confiscatory actions of our national government.
Obama-type libs can't appreciate that they are NOT appreciated by the productive class. Those who do appreciate their ministrations are too unengaged, apathetic, or stupid to understand that reliance on "benefits" is robbing them of incentive and ruining their lives and the lives of their (usually single parent) children.
The track record of the Federal government at solving problems like "poverty" or "energy" or "sickness" is laughable. Anyone who believes Obama's promise that pointy-headed bureaucrats at HHS will solve the health-care "crisis" needs to change their meds. The Federal Government is run by people who belong to a BIG union and we all know how unions work: don't screw in the light bulb unless the union contract permits light bulb screwing. Obama is the ultimate Union Boss and Chief of the Ruling Class Liberals.
The problem is that he has never succeeded in our free society and is an admitted failure in the capitalist world. He has never run a business, big, small, or otherwise, or made a payroll. Anyone placing their faith in him will be bitterly disappointed. Those who know better will nod their heads and resist the impulse to say "I don't you so" when it came to electing liberal do-gooders.
Marc Jeric| 3.16.09 @ 11:37AM
Excellent article - should be a required course in all universities. A good reminder of Johnson's War on Poverty; what is the definition of victory in that war? What is our Exit Strategy? Let us all ask Abu Hussein from Kenya to give a cogent explanation for this dark period in US history - the years of Nixon-his VP (I forget his name)-Carter! Also - how was it that Reagan's policy of trickle-down-economics (as if there is any other kind) produced 18 years of incredible prosperity?
daboss| 3.16.09 @ 1:23PM
Bob must be working on his 8x10 color glossy graphs with circles and arrows and writing on the back.
Jeremiah is just avoiding the inconvenient truth. Too bad, am actually interested in their thoughts.
Texas Male | 3.16.09 @ 1:51PM
Peter R McGrath said: "the American people have demonstrated, time and again, that they are perfectly capable of achieving self-actualized spiritual and temporal success despite the well intentioned, ham fisted, confiscatory actions of our national government."
This is most certainly true and has been demonstrated time and again! Left wing ideologists KNOW this to be true but a positive outcome for them does not equal prosperity for those willing to make it happen, but something entirely different.
The left is about power and control over lives and property and keeping populations living paycheck to paycheck (relying on them when things become dire) is how they do it. The far left is not only the enemy of the wealty, but also of those below poverty. The idea is to keep the poor EXACTLY where they are despite their ramblings of an ill defined "social justice". The ceiling is lowered over everyone, rich or poor when liberal/socialist/marxist policies prevail. This sham "stimulus plan" (orwellian wording indeed) is not designed to stimulate as much as cripple the average American. We are ALL headed to the liberal plantation.
I wish someone could answer this question:
How can we fight against what is going on now?
The ballot box (while we still have one) is not going to work as every viable politician today is a socialist it seems.
After scoffing at ron Paul while he was running, I would vote for him in a heart beat now. He was definitely a voice in the wilderness.
Pingback| 3.16.09 @ 2:20PM
New Paltz Journal » Blog Archive » Some economic history links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:
Howard| 3.16.09 @ 4:05PM
1980 was the year I became a Conservative. Shortly after Jimmy's Desert One fiasco I went on a vacation to Martinique. I noticed this poor island had more new cars than the US seemed to have. On my first day there a German national pointed his finger at me wagging it. He said "you Americans are weak and stupid". I rembember telling him that Carter was toast, and that a new administration will be arriving to fix things. Lo and behold Reagan did many good things. Now I'm afraid we may have to relearn these lessons, as new stagflationists are in power. These folks think their Ivy League educations will allow them to sucercede the market. And the band plays on!
Trackback| 3.16.09 @ 7:16PM
That '70s Horror Show, on perverse, links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:
Michael Tomlinson| 3.16.09 @ 7:45PM
To quote a narcissistic ego-maniac “Sometimes loving your country demands you must tell the truth to power.” Don't discount Arthus Laffer's prediction of the upcoming Obama depression. Obama is going to make Jimmy Carter and FDR , who destroyed prosperity in the US during their administrations, actually look like they knew what they were doing. He's also going to make JFK and John Murtha look ethical and Alger Hiss look patriotic. As long as Americans give Democrats a free ride life is only going to get worse in the Obamanation.
Pingback| 3.16.09 @ 9:01PM
The American Spectator : bThat/b #39;70s Horror Show » GOSSIPGET.COM links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:
Phil| 3.16.09 @ 9:21PM
I attended college in the late 70's. You couldn't even get a job at grocery store as a grocery sacker. In 1980, I obtained my first car loan; the interest was 18%. And yet all the pundits now call Carter one of the most intellectual presidents we had. My God, we are repeating history and none of these elected cowards has the guts to say "the Emperor has no clothes".
Angel| 3.16.09 @ 10:29PM
The economy stunk, but worst of all was having to look at Carter's smarmy toothy grin. Malaise!!!Still gives me nightmares.
Pingback| 3.17.09 @ 9:28AM
That ’70s show « The Tiger in DC links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:
Pingback| 3.17.09 @ 9:49AM
Tuesday afternoon . . . | And Still I Persist links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:
yo| 3.17.09 @ 10:17AM
great article
I had been thinking more in line with the argument that the libs were heading us into another great dep.
After reading this, i've reconsidered and I think that mr moore is right that it is likely to take us to stagflation. the main reason is that monetary policy will be more like the seventies now.
Tom E| 3.17.09 @ 10:24AM
In the Bush years middle class income declined, just like in the Carter years. Any ideological system taken to excess ends up destroying the economy.
JimBeam| 3.17.09 @ 10:43AM
Bush = Nixon/Ford
Obama = Carter
The problem isn't just "statist liberals." Statist conservatives are just as bad. The problem is one that is shared by both parties, that is that government knows best when it comes to the economy. Whether it is our current President with his Harvard J.D. or our former President with his Harvard MBA, the elites think they know what is best for America, but the truth is that they tend to do more harm than good far more often than not.
Government has a very specific role and a very specific job in society. Government's role in the economy should be to do what is necessary for the common good, but that the market cannot adequately provide, such as public roads, public schools, public safety, the military, and public health. (In every other industrialized nation, health care is considered a public expense.) I would also include certain forms of "social insurance" from FDIC to some form of Social Security as an appropriate role for government.
It is when government exceeds its natural role and starts dictating arbitrary economic policies like "homeownership is good" (promoted by BOTH parties) or "you should make certain choices in your personal life" or "you can only fly to Texas and neighboring states from Dallas's Love Field." that it gets into trouble. Now we have the absurdity of the "bailout nation" where the government decides who survives on the government teat (AIG, Bear Stearns) and who dies (Lehman Bros.). We will all pay the price in dramatically reduced economic productivity in the next few years and will suffer a dramatically reduced standard of living as a result.
MT| 3.17.09 @ 11:27AM
Obama's even more incompetent than Carter--which is unbelievable. At least Carter could blurt out a sentence or two without the teleprompter. Morons.
Paul in Colorado| 3.17.09 @ 1:47PM
In "1984" Orwell makes the left's agenda clear. Poor people are mostly interested in day-to-day survival and have little time for lofty thoughts about human rights. Poor people are easily controlled.
MT| 3.17.09 @ 1:52PM
Idiots are easily controlled. Unfortunately, thanks to our liberal Publik Skool Systim, there are millions of idiots in our country.
T. Jefferson| 3.17.09 @ 4:29PM
I remember Carter too.
Incredibly, you should get a Pulitzer for simply stating the obvious and telling the truth. Where are all the other honest journalists over 30 years old? Oh, you're it?
Thomas Taylor| 3.17.09 @ 5:31PM
Not mentioned, but also utterly destroyed during the 70's was the US Armed Forces. Obama has already proposed a 10% across the board cut in Defense spending. I suspect by the time Obama's time in office is over, the entire country will be on it's knees.
valwayne| 3.17.09 @ 5:46PM
Lyndon Johnson's Great Society programs went on to spend $2 trillion over the next 2 and 1/2 decades. Jimmy Obama proposes to spend twice that with almost $2 trillion in debt alone in his first year! And since he broke his promise to oppose earmarks/pork billions and billions of it will be lost to pure corruption. Where's a John Kennedy or Ronald Reagan when you need them.....why do we end up with the Jimmy Carters and Jimmy Obama's?
Yuval | 3.17.09 @ 6:42PM
What you guys don't get is that Obama seems to have learned at least one lesson from Carter. It is simply this; the pesky ballot box will knock you out if you cause the American people too much pain. You therefore have moves from the administration to control the US Census (which determines how the electoral college works and which state gets how many seats in the House), and has inserted provisions into the frankenbudget to send tax dollars to ACORN. At least Carter was principled enough to not try to actively meddle with the actual election system in the country. Believe me, Obama was too obvious with the Census and had to let that idea go, but the administration will try again as it watches it's popularity ratings drop.
KJ| 3.17.09 @ 8:03PM
What nonsense and drivel.
First, deregulation of trucking, airlines, rail and other industries actually began under Carter - opposite of the "reregulation" you allude to in the lede.
Second, windfall taxes on oil companies is not what led to decreased production. Decreases occurred because we were running out of "easy oil" in the U.S. and hadn't yet mastered - at a reasonable cost - ways in which to abstract oil from shales, etc. Meanwhile, oil in the Middle East was easy to extract, cheap to refine and exempt from most import tariffs - hence the shift abroad.
Third, the truth is that all significant measures of economic growth under Carter - GDP, jobs, revenue - were positive. Furthermore, most inflation was offset by steady increases in personal incomes during that era. Meanwhile, Reagan's immoral policies supressed personal income (leading to less savings and more household debt), while real wealth controlled by the nation's top 1 percent grew from 9 percent in 1980 to nearly 23 percent today. And let's not overlook the Reaganomic policies and deregulation schemes as continued under Bush 1, Clinton and Bush II...and the final end result: our current meltdown.
Jim| 3.17.09 @ 8:10PM
Here's what I remember about the 1970s: my father, a diligent, hard working guy, losing job after job as U.S. industries contracted. When did things finally stabilize for him? A few years into the Reagan presidency -- and things got spectacularly better through the Clinton years. With apologies to Barry Goldwater -- and a bit of advice to Democrats -- moderation in the pursuit of economic growth is no vice. We get it. You want to make "progressive" changes. But please, don't throw out the baby with the bath water. The 1970s absolutely stunk.
Draconis| 3.17.09 @ 8:14PM
" ... LBJ unleashed the Great Society welfare state "to end poverty in America." These programs would go on not just to spend more than $2 trillion over the next two and a half decades ... "
Take another look at your math. George Will has the cost of the War on Poverty at $6.6 trillion over a thirty-year period.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/09/12/AR2005091201260.html
When I first heard that figure, I spent a couple of hours reviewing the annual budgets from 1965 to 1995, and yes, we spent $6.6 trillion to wage war on poverty, the poverty rate was essentially unchanged as a result of all that time and money, and the $6.6 trillion went straight to the bottom line of the national debt, averaging $220 billion per year. $6.6 trillion is $22,000 for every man, woman, and child alive today.
The Democrats complain that President Reagan raised the national debt, but the increase in the national debt during the Reagan years was almost exactly the amount mandated by LBJ's War on Poverty during the Reagan years.
Pingback| 3.17.09 @ 8:24PM
Fresh Bilge » FB Randoms links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:
TheEnforcer| 3.17.09 @ 8:43PM
Wow!
I thought you were describing Obama's first 50 days.
deja vu
Alex| 3.17.09 @ 10:22PM
"And then Ronald Reagan saved the world."
Would that be the concluding line of Stephen Moore's fairytale?
So what's Moore's policy? Tax cuts, tax cuts, tax cuts? Deregulation, deregulation, deregulation? It's not as if those policies have led to the largest economic downturn since the Great Depression or anything, right?
Oh wait...
Tom O'Brien| 3.17.09 @ 11:59PM
"It's not as if those policies have led to the largest economic downturn since the Great Depression or anything, right?
WRONG ALEX - Show us how you think "tax cuts and deregulation" led to this crisis. It was state policies of cheap money bubble and giving mortgages to those who couldn't pay them back.
sub| 3.18.09 @ 5:59AM
Nice work Alex. Your response to a factual macro-economic history is to spew Bush Derangement Syndrome nonsense. The next poster is correct, cheap money and social engineering via mortgage lending are at the root of this crisis. You likely believe in big government because you don't pay any of the taxes that fund it. Isn't that easy for you?......
S.L. Toddard| 3.18.09 @ 12:59PM
It's amazing to me that liberals have the nerve to rag on repub presidents with Obuffoon in the white house. This guy is such an incompetent moron he puts our national security at risk. What a loser.
Gazinya| 4.5.09 @ 10:47AM
I well remember that time. I graduated from H.S. in 1965. I voted for Carter because I wanted change. There was a huge democrat majority in both houses and I thought having a democrat president would be swell. I am so sorry.
I remember how suprised I was when I learned that the once strong, resiliant, though poor, black family had been decimated by the welfare of the democrats. If there was a man in the house then no welfare. The more children a single mother had the more money the democrats gave her. The democrats became the absentee daddy to the whole generation of broken families.
I remember in the early 1970's needing any kind of a raise to make ends meet. I was making $756.00/month and thought I was in pig heaven until my first pay check showed up and I dreaded making my $114.00/month house payment. When we did get a pay raise of 2 or 3%, which was every other year, we would be in a higher tax bracket and that would take the raise and then some. The 70's for those who were not yet born or too young to know was a living hell for the family.
So we have LBJ, Nixon, Ford, Carter, Bush I, Clinton, BushII and now The Obama. Reagan was a too short stop at the pool of sanity.
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