A confluence of events has forced Republicans back to fiscal
conservatism en masse. This is a happy coincidence for
fiscal conservatives, who until recently could be forgiven for
wondering if they had a political home. These events are likely
to keep Republicans fiscally frugal at least long enough to see
how this stance plays out in the 2010 elections.
The first event pushing Republicans to revisit spending restraint
was the need for a stark contrast with the Democratic majority.
Such is always the fate of the minority — either find an issue
that shows you are favorably and distinctly different from the
majority, or become accustomed to political obscurity. The
burgeoning budget deficit immediately offered just such an
opportunity.
The Congressional Budget Office provided the incoming Congress
with a projected $1.2 trillion federal deficit for the current
fiscal year. That is a 160% increase from the previous year’s
record $455 billion deficit. CBO also estimated deficits over the
next two years as well — both also higher than the 2008
deficit.
High as they are, these figures understated the deficit impact
almost as soon as CBO released them. First, they measured
expenditures from the $700 billion TARP rescue program in net
present value — not the higher cash accounting used by Treasury.
The estimates also did not include the costs of any additional
recession responses — such as the recently passed $800 billion
economic stimulus bill.
Hand-in-hand with Republicans’ need for just such a contrasting
issue, went the fact that their deep minority status allowed them
the luxury of seizing it. Effectively excluded from power in the
federal government’s elected branches, Republicans were at the
same time freed of the responsibility for governing.
For the majority party, governing’s responsibility is never long
absent. And this year’s predominant issue was awaiting Democrats
as soon as they returned to Washington. The recession, which
fueled the large projected deficits, had to be immediately
addressed. Democrats in particular had to address the economic
crisis. Virtually encoded in the modern party’s DNA, the
Depression left Democrats with an ingrained belief that their
party’s effective rebirth came as a result of Hoover and
Republicans’ inaction during that crisis.
A sense of urgency meant Democrats could not wait long to act.
Control of the White House and dominant congressional majorities
meant Democrats did not have to — or seriously include
Republicans broadly when they did. They did none of these,
producing a signed stimulus bill within a month’s of the
President’s inauguration.
Combined with more than enough votes to pass their own proposal,
they also had the political necessity of serving their expectant
supporters as well. Both the process and the resulting product
did not present Republicans with serious wedges that would
splinter potential unity. If anything, it solidified it. The
recession’s seriousness left few politicians of any persuasion of
the opinion that nothing need be done. The division was over
what. However, the overwhelming political imbalance meant that
division never had to be seriously explored.
Where a tax cut-tilted stimulus bill could have presented
Republicans with significant incentives to support, the final
product did not. CBO estimated the $787 billion bill as being 3-1
spending increases to tax cuts — with just $212 billion in
revenue reductions over ten years.
In the end, just three Republicans in both bodies supported the
stimulus bill. The remainder must feel themselves much the same
as Brer Rabbit did when thrown into the briar patch in Joel
Chandler Harris’ children’s story.
The fox in that story, having finally gotten Brer Rabbit at his
mercy, is convinced that no fate could be worse than being hurled
into the thorny thicket. Of course, the fox quickly discovers his
error. As soon as the rabbit lands safely in the briars, he is
heard to holler back “Bred and born in a briar patch, Brer Fox —
bred and born in a briar patch!”
It has yet to be determined if Republicans will equally prosper
having thusly been returned to their roots, but for the moment,
they have no less hope that they will. And very little choice but
to try.
