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At Large
Prepare to Be Tested
North Korea's message to Obama.
The North Koreans have perfected what is called in football a double reverse. The DPRK has long been master of the political maneuver of altering its position twice so to end up exactly where it started. It has just done so again.
With North Korea's "Dear Leader" returning to a modified schedule, there appears no question that Kim Jong-il is slowly but definitely recovering from what appears to have been some form of stroke. He had effectively left the scene with George W. Bush as U.S. president and now reenters the political world with Barack H. Obama having taken over the White House. This evolution finds Pyongyang in the less than desirable position of perceiving itself as less important than before to an American administration.
From Pyongyang's standpoint it is a time to take a step back from the earlier negotiations in order to test the new and perplexingly naïve Obama Administration. It is difficult to assess how the period of Kim Jong-il's illness altered the leadership hierarchy in the DPRK. It is clear, however, that there is an effort by N. Korea to shift negotiations with the U.S. back to an earlier time in the course of the recent six party talks that includes in addition to the two principals: China, Russia, Japan and S. Korea.
As it did with the launching of short range missiles toward the Sea of Japan in the midst of nuclear arms talks in late May 2007, Pyongyang once again seems to be using an expected test firing of its long range missile, the Taepoding-2, theoretically capable of reaching Alaska, as a form of greeting for the announced early visit to Asia of President Obama and his new secretary of state, Hillary R. Clinton. It would be similar to one of those crushing hits on rookie football players that remind them that they are now playing in the "big time."
Whether or not the North Koreans actually launch the missile from its test facility at Dongchangri near the Chinese border, the message will have been sent to the new American administration that the DPRK should not be overlooked in President Obama's plans for "a new view" of U.S. foreign policy. Realizing a potential international perception of weakness resulting from Kim Jong-il's illness, North Korea's leadership cadre want to return to a priority position in the White House's foreign political thought process.
By threatening to break its military agreements with South Korea, the North has created an environment of danger that would surround a later long-range test firing. Pyongyang has put a great deal of serious thought into resetting the table before any future six party nuclear talks involving the newly arrived Obama government. Leverage is the aim and the North Koreans know how to play the game.
If a long-range missile is launched, it is also a commercial reminder that North Korea is still a player in the international arms scene; even if it only lands 200 miles off Japan's coast, as the earlier Taepodong-2 did in 2006. Naturally it would be more effective in every way, military, political and commercial, if such an intercontinental test launch were a spectacular success. The missile actually only has to be reasonably near operational, however, in order to set up the new nuclear negotiations with a favorable edge for Pyongyang.
The Obama administration will be entering any new negotiations without the Asia careerist who was the last administration's principal negotiator. Korea-wise Christopher Hill has been inexplicably shunted off to be the new U.S. ambassador to Iraq. The negotiations over the years with North Korea often have been influenced by the personalities involved.
In national security affairs and sports some players are indeed indispensable, and the imperturbable Ambassador Hill certainly had approached that status during the Bush years. Professionally Christopher Hill did not satisfy either the far right or the far left. He showed, however, he could play the complicated N. Korea game as well as the Koreans. There appears little reason for his transfer at this stage of Washington/Pyongyang relations.
The rule of thumb since the earliest days of the Korean War armistice has been that while the N. Koreans do not negotiate under pressure, they also will not negotiate without pressure. The recognition and exploitation of this extraordinary balance has been a long and difficult road. It would be best if the new secretary of state and her boss had remembered this hard-earned lesson.
Putting in new players at this crucial juncture of the game would appear to be strictly a gesture to Mr. Obama's liberal left. Such an action only can produce an unexpected chop block. As has been said before, "Welcome to the NFL, Mr. Obama."
About the Author
George H. Wittman writes a weekly column on international affairs for The American Spectator online. He was the founding chairman of the National Institute for Public Policy.
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ncatty| 2.13.09 @ 9:57AM
Maybe Christopher Hill just needed a break.
Dustoff| 2.13.09 @ 10:22AM
Obama's sweet talk woun't work with N-Korea.
Mike M| 2.13.09 @ 11:32AM
Having spent time on a US Navy base in S.Korea, I can assure you all they (North and South) are indeed very serious. The war preperations are evident wherever one goes, Although the busy commerce in the South makes it less evident. One foolish remark by Sir Hillary my prove disasterous. Obama is up to his skinny neck.
David Govett| 2.13.09 @ 1:00PM
It takes no psychic to see that BO's legacy will be the peace of Carter, the economy of FDR, and the ethics of Clinton. An ambitious goal, indeed, but achievable if Obama persists. Kim Jong-Il would sympathize, Messiah to Messiah.
Stan redmond| 2.13.09 @ 2:36PM
Are we holding any North Korean spies we could release as a sign of good will to Dear Leader? Maybe Obama can tear down the barbwire on the DMZ and declare the Korean war over.
Marc Jeric| 2.13.09 @ 2:59PM
perhaps our Democrat Party should change its name, in the light of that designation's misuse in the names such as People's Democratic Republic in the terror states such as North Korea, China, Cuba, etc. How about a new name, say Socialist Party?
Alan Brooks| 2.13.09 @ 4:34PM
perhaps kim will have another stroke--
but just one more.
2012 Pending 7year tribulation| 2.13.09 @ 5:14PM
N Korea and America, which is worse? one is an active agressor, and the other only uses threats.
Alan Brooks| 2.13.09 @ 5:58PM
DAPHNE, IS THAT YOU?
you can have some of my paxil.
Alan Brooks| 2.13.09 @ 6:00PM
...a short comment doesn't disguise your identity.
2012 Pending 7year tribulation| 2.13.09 @ 9:12PM
But S Korea tentacles obfuscate shrewd audacity of hope oh my god them again redrum redrum redrum redrum redrum redr
Alan Brooks| 2.13.09 @ 11:15PM
on a more... serious (gulp) note:
one is an active aggressor, the other is a starving asian 1984-type ...
oh never mind, you never get anywhere.
Melvin| 2.14.09 @ 8:40AM
It is now complete. There is no Western Nation albeit Israel that is willing to confront the murdering tyrants of the world.
A JAG attorney once told me, "A lawyers thinking process is 100% different than the rest of us." The lawyerly approach is exactly what Barrack Obama will use and Bill Clinton had used.
In the mean time murdering tyrants of all stripes will have a field day murdering innocents because the thinking process of Barrack Obama will be: "Hmmm, Hillary send tyrant "A" a letter stating that we strongly disagree with his murdering innocent people. If that doesn't work we will file a motion with the UN, then after that resend a letter to tyrant "A" telling him that we are sending a letter to the UN that we strongly disagree with him murdering innocent people."
It is the reciprocal litigious line of thinking that tyrants use to their advantage a play Constituional Lawyers like fools. That pot-bellied North Korean dicator played Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, and now Barrack Obama like the consimate Liberal fools that were and are.
Dictators don't write letters they launch missiles.
Peace creates STABILITY| 2.14.09 @ 11:36AM
America can only fund and create wars, and has no ability to create peace. Not only Clinton, and Obama, but Bush also, lacks the ability. Launching missiles makes money because someone has to manufacture these WMD.
To be a Liberal does not make one a fool, it's just a difference of opinion.
Michele San Pietro| 2.14.09 @ 2:17PM
North Korea? It's the country where the squalid American liberals who always through mud against their own country and never respect different point of views should move!
Paul Nelson| 2.14.09 @ 2:57PM
What you do not seem to recognise is that the "Dear Leader" Obama, has little in the way of philosophic differences with Kim Jong-il. He would like to replicate the DPRK on a somewhat larger scale.
Alan Brooks| 2.14.09 @ 10:36PM
peace creates STABILITY= Daphne.
soooo its just a matter of opinion, Daph. Good, then we will have OUR opinions and you will be so understanding of OUR opinions.
Alan Brooks| 2.15.09 @ 1:09AM
... we're both so understanding, so compassionate.
how BIG of us.
Stability creats wealth TOO| 2.15.09 @ 10:12AM
Europe became a wealthy power house because it was good for foreign investors including the Japs, to geain foreign investment one needs a stable currency and a stable economy, and a peacefull country. People don't invest in war ZONES.
Thomas| 2.15.09 @ 3:53PM
Excuse me, but just who do you think is trying Obama? It is not simply the North Koreans. North Korea is a wholly owned subsidiary of China. If the Chinese don't want Kim & co. to do something then Kim doesn't do it. The U.S. can look for increased problems from any tin-pot dictator that does business with the Chinese. That includes Russia which is suddenly very chummy with the Chinese, after decades of territorial, ideological and economic troubles between the two.
Maybe the apocalypse is near? If it is, will we be prepared to meet it?
AJ| 2.17.09 @ 8:55PM
@ Stability...wealth: obviously you underestimate the value of weapons, the blackmarket and beyond
hfgh| 11.24.09 @ 8:59PM
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