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The Economics of Quicksand

Media experts stunned when falling prices result in greater sales.

In this week’s business news, home re-sales across the country rose 6.5 percent in the face of record drops in home prices. CNN used the word “surprise” to characterize this jump. But the only thing that was a “surprise” is that CNN and other media outlets practically shout that they have no grasp of the basics of economics.

Let’s make this really simple. Economics 101 teaches us that if prices go down, people are more likely to buy something. To retool a classic adage from the father of economics, Adam Smith, it is not out of benevolence that butcher occasionally lowers prices on ground meat. It is because the butcher wants you to buy more. And it works.

Car companies, clothing stores, and even banks tout how much money they can save you, the consumer, if you come in and buy their products. The lower the price, the more likely you are to buy.

Suppose you are thinking of buying a new Honda Accord. One dealer quotes you a price of $30,000. Next door you are offered exactly the same car for $15,000. Which car will you buy? Which car will make you more likely to buy? The answers are not obvious to the writers at CNN.

That sales of existing homes exceeded expectations is a flicker of hope in otherwise dismal economic times. It offers valuable information for how we might handle our economic woes. It’s been widely reported that people who can’t make their mortgage payments are losing their homes. Now, predictably, bargain shoppers who might not otherwise be in the market for real estate are taking advantage of the lowered prices.

The government hasn’t — yet! — started halting foreclosures or artificially propping home prices by setting minimum prices. And now the housing market is showing signs of recovery. Had home prices been artificially inflated in an effort to “protect” home values, as John McCain wanted, there would be no increase in existing home sales.

These commonsense economic principles are working for home buyers. So why are we ignoring the housing market’s rebound elsewhere? The government is still propping up lots of companies and industries that are on the verge of failing. Are they showing glimmers of hope? No.

In fact, Chrysler and GM are already lining up to beg for another round of handouts. It is hard to keep count of how many times AIG and Citibank have been given funds. Despite the countless trillions that have and will be doled out, there is no sign that a turnaround is even possible.

For the turnaround to start, prices need to be allowed to fall, and failure has to be an option. Preventing the failure of Chrysler or AIG or Citibank also prevents natural market forces from correcting the problems, which only helps to prolong and deepen the economic crisis in America.

Letting failure run its course, however painful to those people that may be displaced or put out of work, is the only course of action, or rather inaction, that can lead to recovery. In the long run it is better for everyone even if it is politically unpopular right now.

It is well past time to realize that interventionist so-called “fixes” for the economy are akin to struggling against quicksand. The harder one struggles, the faster one sinks.

topics:
Mainstream Media, Economics, Housing Bubble

About the Author

Eric Heidenreich is a writer in Alexandria, Virginia.

Letter to the Editor View all comments (16) |

Appleby| 1.30.09 @ 10:25AM

There are a lot of advantages to making a spectacular failure early in life. If left to fall spectacularly and hard, Generation Whine will pick itself up and figure out that Actions Have Consequences and connect the dots between the two, and next time will get it right.

If Mommy jumps between actions and consequences every time things go wrong, these kids will never learn and this will start happening more and more often until everyone who DID learn the lesson is at Galt's Gulch and the rest have looted the place to the ground and starved to death waiting for someone to Do Something.

David Govett| 1.30.09 @ 12:02PM

There is nothing dishonorable about failure. There is dishonor, however, in not learning from failure.

megapotamus| 1.30.09 @ 1:45PM

As with other controversies, the solution to the "mortgage problem" writes itself. If the problem is people not paying their mortgages, well, these deals have been meticulously constructed with binding legal instruments and, believe it or not, these contracts foresee the possibility that the homeowner might fail to pay the debt. Foreclosure? Yes, finally. But from the day of the last made payment (if any) to the time the squatters are out and the house is ready to go back on the market is at least a year. At least. If the problem is calcification in the mortgage market the solution is to ACCELERATE foreclosures especially if you figure in the tendency of foreclosed parties to gut the fixtures and appliances from that home on the way out the door. But it is an era of compromise so howzabout this? We enforce these deals... as written and agreed to by all parties. Strict enforcement of contracts, that is what the economy at large needs from banks to baristas behind on their credit cards. Don't like it? Sorry, it's just a fact and all this insipid socialist spending and rhetoric do nothing to change that. The truth of this will strike all parties involved, eventually. FORWARD!

lkjl| 11.19.09 @ 10:09PM

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