The Investor
Buck Fever
Stock picking, not deer hunting.
(Page 2 of 2)
Then my son-in-law starts telling me the same thing about Apple, its freedom from debt and customer loyalty (all my kids swear by MacBook and iPod), etc. Soon I am starting to get that strange feeling — the shaking, the sweating, the breathing, the tension — which numerous deer hunters have described as they sit in a tree stand, freezing their whatever off, waiting for that once-in-a-lifetime shot at that massive, antlered buck, you know, Bambi’s elusive ol’ man.
This is a new feeling for me. For almost my entire adult life, I have avoided picking individual stocks as a game for suckers or truly brilliant investors such as Warren Buffett or Peter Lynch, who made Fidelity Magellan Fund into such an icon for many years.
I drank all the Kool-Aid served up by the likes of John Bogle, founder of the Vanguard Funds, and Burton G. Malkiel, the author of A Random Walk Down Wall Street, now in its umpteenth edition. I walked the path of efficient markets, no-load index funds and the management of risk through slavish mimicry of the entire market, not just the domestic market but global markets, nay, inter-galactic markets. I was, ontologically, mindlessly, a Boglehead. The market is smarter than any one of us.
It is astounding what a 30-40 percent drop in market value will do to a man. Intel, American Express, Apple! Buy low, sell high. Open an account. Call a broker. Have nice chat with that pretty blond on Charlie Schwab’s website. Where will it all end?
It will all come to tears.
(Mr. Mehan is still paying college tuition for the youngest of his seven children in Northern Virginia.)
About the Author
G. Tracy Mehan, III served at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in the administrations of both Presidents Bush. He is a consultant in Arlington, Virginia, and an adjunct professor at George Mason University School of Law.
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Paul D| 1.6.09 @ 7:19AM
I've got the fever. I took the shot. I put in everything I have. Its even better than you describe: Many great companies are trading right now at HALF THEIR BOOK VALUE. In the 15 years I've been closely following the market I've never seen this before. By all accounts this is truly an historic buying opportunity.
But then again...
Robert Rosencrans| 1.6.09 @ 7:53AM
Robert Rosencrans: I've invested well with John Bogle's Vanguard Funds over the years and have done quite well. Peter Lynch is/was a genius stock picker and has that sixth sense that works so well when it comes to investing.
It sounds to me like you've made a different type of investment, putting your kids through college. That's one of the greatest investments in the world.
Jason | 1.6.09 @ 8:58AM
Do these news organizations seriously think we should make big financial decisions on the basis of day-to-day fluctuations in the stock market?
http://www.rightklik.net
Marc Jeric| 1.6.09 @ 11:38AM
I remember the 1970's when the Carter policies produced unemployment of 11% and inflation of 13%, with the prime rate of 21.5%; the Dow-Jones was at 500, with front-page predictions fortelling 300. Within a year or two of Abu Hussein from Kenya presiding, we will see a similar situation when the second ideal moment for buying stocks of good companies will present itself.
L. Ross| 1.6.09 @ 12:54PM
I put my money in banks. They failed. I put my money in stocks. They tanked. I put my money in real estate. The bottom fell out, and I hundreds of thousands more than my house is worth. From now on, I'm going to get a return on my investment. I'm investing my money in strippers and beer!
The Intellectual Redneck | 1.16.09 @ 9:27PM
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There is is new web based game called the "Bail Out Game." It has you driving a truck load of money around a Monopoly like board while you make decisions about what companies to bail out. Economic events like stock market drops often occur. This would be hilarious if it didn't so closely resemble reality. You can play it here. Have fun while the money lasts
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I've got the fever. I took the shot. I put in everything I have.