Pundits are scratching their heads trying to figure out why
Republicans — and predominantly conservative Republicans at that
— did well in Arizona this election. Everywhere else across the
country, Republicans did poorly as voters turned out to vote for
the charming Barack Obama.
Obviously, McCain being on the top of the ticket in Arizona was a
huge asset, bringing out more Republicans to vote. Even so, there
were tremendous odds stacked against Arizona’s Republican
candidates. The state Democrat party registered far more new
Democrats over the past couple of years than the state Republican
Party and had considerably more money. Democrats outspent
Republicans ranging from 5-1 all the way up to 20-1 in some
races. The mainstream media was predicting losses for Republicans
in the legislature, and possibly a Democrat takeover of the
House.
Instead, Republicans gained seats in the House, and replaced
moderate Republicans with more conservative Republicans. In the
biggest countylevel races in the state, Maricopa County Sheriff
Joe Arpaio and lesser known County Attorney Andrew Thomas easily
won reelection by wide margins.
Republicans didn’t fare as well for the obscure Corporation
Commission, but even Democrat talking heads admitted it was
because the Democrats ran candidates with the familiar likable
names “Paul Newman” and “Sandra Kennedy.” The Republican
candidates who lost tended to be moderate or liberal Republicans,
and Republicans had heard mixed messages from them. The sole
Republican who looks like he will make it on the board is a solid
conservative.
Republicans did poorly in a couple of congressional races. One
was the seat in Northern Arizona held by Republican Rick Renzi,
who had been indicted on corruption charges. There has always
been a Democratic voter registration advantage in that district.
The other two seats were held by well-known popular Democrat
incumbents, and the Democrats outspent the Republicans in those
races by millions of dollars. One race pitted a moderate
Republican against a glamorous female Democrat incumbent, and the
other pitted a conservative against an incumbent Democrat who had
been mayor of Tempe in that district (Scottsdale-Tempe). The
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee outspent Republican
candidate David Schweikert by a 10-1 margin.
So what helped Republicans in Arizona besides John McCain? On the
ballot this year was an initiative declaring that marriage was
between a man and a woman. Although gay marriage is already
banned by statute in Arizona, Prop. 102 put it in the
constitution, in order to make the ban more difficult for liberal
judges to strike down. Proponents knew it would bring out more
voters, and it did.
The immigration issue helped Arizona’s Republican candidates.
Arizona has the highest rate of illegal immigration in the
country, and the state is facing the biggest budget shortfall in
history, $2 billion. Democrat Governor Napolitano has done little
to stop the flow of illegal immigration, and is widely seen now
as fleeing Arizona for an Obama cabinet position to avoid having
to deal with the consequences of wasteful spending. Both Maricopa
County and the City of Phoenix are also in dire fiscal straits,
with the county laying off employees to scrape by. Sheriff Joe
Arpaio has taken a lead combating illegal immigration along with
Maricopa County Attorney Andrew Thomas, and both were on the
ballot this year. Considering both won reelection by wide
margins, it’s likely that many voters showed up to vote for them,
then voted straight GOP on the rest of the ticket.
There were nine initiatives on Arizona’s ballot this year, and
most of the outcomes favored Republicans (“vote yes on the 100’s,
no on the 200’s, and no on 300” was the Republican mantra, which
prevailed). Businesses favoring illegal immigrant labor had put
up a deceptively named initiative entitled “Stop Illegal Hiring”
which purported to crack down on businesses hiring illegal
immigrant labor, but really would weaken the state’s employer
sanctions law. Its description on the ballot sounded tough. Yet
it was soundly defeated, thanks to anti-illegal immigration
activists who got the word out about this initiative, getting the
Republican base to the polls.
Throughout the country, voters rejected McCain and the GOP
because they were too closely associated with the overspending
Bush administration. But in McCain’s home state, Republicans and
conservatives did just fine running on principle.
