The United States needs more senators like Alabama’s Jeff
Sessions. The Republican Party needs to recruit more senatorial
candidates who have that potential. And the conservative movement
ought to prod the Republican Party, sooner rather than later, to
do so.
First things first: Senator Sessions won election last week to a
third term by a landslide margin, with 63 percent of the vote. He
outpolled ticket-header John McCain in both percentage of the
vote and in raw votes, even though far more votes were cast in
the presidential contest than in the Senate one. He did so even
though what is arguably the most conservative congressional
district in the state had no House race on the ballot to help
drive up conservative turnout (Rep. Jo Bonner won re-election
without opposition), but its major city, Mobile, was the
home base of his semi-moderate black opponent, state Sen. Vivian
Figures, who benefited from an extra-heavy black turnout there
and throughout the state due to Barack Obama’s presence on the
ballot. And Sessions did so even as Republicans in Alabama lost
one U.S. House seat they had formerly held, failed to pick up the
seat of a retiring Democrat that they were favored to win, and
came within a whisker of losing a state Supreme Court seat they
had held for years. In short, Sessions substantially outperformed
the rest of the Republican ticket, which is a testament to the
growing popularity of this stalwart conservative workhorse.
Sessions is no spellbinding orator. And he is no legislative
wheeler-dealer. What he is, though, is a man of principle who
doggedly works to put those principles into practice. Long before
this year’s sudden national interest in drilling, Sessions worked
successfully to help expand drilling in the Gulf of Mexico. Long
before President George W. Bush made free trade with Colombia a
priority (as yet unaccomplished), Sessions was pushing the need
to make that nation a key ally. And it was Sessions who served as
the longtime professional mentor, nomination sponsor, and
unyielding advocate for one of the very best federal appeals
court judges in the country, Bill Pryor of the 11th Circuit.
On Tuesday I spoke with Sessions, who expressed great concern
about the odds facing conservatives in the next few years. Among
his words of wisdom:
“I think the conservatives have to lead. We need to get out there
and communicate and lead effectively.”
“I think ideas are powerful. Ideas matter. I’m convinced that if
we stay locked within the [Senate] chamber, we are doomed….
Americans values will be weakened. What we’ve gotta do is rally
the American people. From the people comes the power, and what
the Democrats fear most of all is losing power.”
He said Republicans erred by not continuing to make the case for
conservative judges: “Seventy percent of the people are on our
side on that issue. I think the Gang of 14 occurred with Harry
Reid’s blessing,” because it took the issue out of the public
realm. (Paraphrasing: He added that the case for judges needs to
be made in big picture terms, not as a procedural argument over
one judge at a time.)
“You’ve gotta have principles that you are fighting for. You
can’t lead a movement or a party with ‘moderation’.”
But (now leaving Sessions’ interview behind) it’s tough to lead,
or to fight, when the playing field is tilted against you.
Republicans are seriously outnumbered in the Senate. At most,
there will be 43 of them, with a chance of as few as 40. And true
conservatives number probably no more than half that. In short,
the next two years will see reed-thin margin for error in
opposing Obama’s leftist policies.
WHICH BRINGS US to the 2010 Senate races. Republicans who harbor
any hopes for a quick political recovery must begin, right
now, to line up powerful candidates for every seat where
victory is the slightest bit conceivable. Right now, the number
of potentially vulnerable Republican and Democratic seats is
about even. Unfortunately (from a GOP standpoint), Democratic
senators Lincoln of Arkansas, Bayh of Indiana, Mikulski of
Maryland, Schumer of New York, Wyden of Oregon, and Leahy of
Vermont all seem to enjoy re-election for the asking. But a host
of others seem to have potential weaknesses: Dodd in Connecticut
may even retire, Boxer of California already has an announced
conservative challenger (as of yesterday) in Chuck DeVore and a
potential challenge from moderate Gov. Schwarzenegger as well,
Delaware will be seriously contested by popular moderate
Republican U.S. Rep. (and former Gov.) Mike Castle, and the seats
of Salazar in Colorado, Inouye of Hawaii (he’ll be 86 by then),
Obama’s replacement in Illinois, Reid of Nevada, Murray of
Washington, Feingold of Wisconsin, and even Dorgan of North
Dakota all offer at least outside chances for Republican
campaigns.
Murray’s vulnerability probably depends on whether or not Dino
Rossi, loser of two close gubernatorial races, can be convinced
to set his sights on Washington. Reid’s uneven performance as
Majority Leader has made him ripe for picking off. In
Connecticut, Republican Gov. Jodi Rell is quite popular. Colorado
remains a state with a strong conservative infrastructure, and
there’s talk that iconic quarterback John Elway might run for the
GOP. Dorgan has always seemed politically strong, but if popular
Republican Gov. John Hoeven could somehow be convinced to make
the race, things could get interesting very quickly. If Inouye
retires, Republican Gov. Linda Lingle may have a shot. And while
Feingold is probably safe, Wisconsin is a state that can always
surprise.
Count’em: That’s ten Democratic seats where Republicans could
compete.
Republicans, though, have their own vulnerabilities. The safe
ones are Shelby of Alabama (with $13 million in the bank), Crapo
of Idaho, Coburn of Oklahoma, Bennett of Utah, and probably Thune
of South Dakota and DeMint of South Carolina. It also would take
a serious upset to knock off Alaska’s Murkowski, Iowa’s Grassley,
and Gregg of New Hampshire.
But in Arizona, John McCain’s seat is vulnerable to challenge
from Gov. Janet Napolitano, whether McCain retires or not. In
Florida, Mel Martinez barely won the first time, and the state
always is a toss-up. Isakson of Georgia should be fairly safe,
but it’s not a done deal. Ditto for Burr of North Carolina.
Meanwhile, Bunning of Kentucky, Vitter of Louisiana (and D.C.
Madam fame), Specter of Pennsylvania, Bond of Missouri, and
Voinovich of Ohio all could be involved in barn-burners. So could
whoever runs to replace the retiring Sam Brownback in Kansas.
That’s ten seats that could be at least somewhat challenging to
hold.
ALL OF WHICH EXPLAINS why recruitment is so necessary. It should
start now. The Republican Senatorial Committee, the RNC,
and outside conservative groups should be researching,
extensively, the political situations, the rising-star
politicians, the leading businessmen, and the famous names in
every one of the 19 states identified here as switchable, to put
forth a strong candidate in all 19. And sometimes the best answer
might even be to reach backwards. If McCain retires for instance
(which actually would be a good idea), former California U.S.
Rep. Barry Goldwater Jr., even at age 72 then, might make a
fitting replacement in the seat McCain inherited from
Goldwater’s father. Or Dan Quayle, who will still be a young 63
then, could make a political comeback; people might forget that
Quayle had a pre-V-P history of being an absolutely superb
campaigner. Or perhaps either of two conservative congressmen,
Jeff Flake or John Shadegg, could be talked into trying to take a
step up.
Likewise in Louisiana, if Vitter is convinced to step aside, a
step backward in time might do the trick. Retiring Rep. Jim
McCrery, or long-retired powerhouses Billy Tauzin or Bob
Livingston, all remain extremely popular in their home states.
And former Gov. Buddy Roemer never really lost the political bug,
and Louisianans who tired of him as governor may yet think his
crusading persona could do some good in Washington. Or, on the
contrary, freshman U.S. Rep. Steve Scalise, a true rising star,
might be ready sooner than expected for a statewide bid.
The simple fact is that the Senate is where the real legislative
fights will be in 2011 and 2012 — the fights that set the tone
for the 2012 presidential campaign. Even with the filibuster
available, you can’t win fights if you don’t have the numbers —
and you can’t have the numbers in the Senate unless you have the
candidates who can win.
Jeff Sessions, and superb colleagues of his like DeMint, Coburn,
John Cornyn, and Jon Kyl, can fight for solid principles with all
their hearts, but it won’t do any good if there are too few other
senators who are at least persuadable for the right. Ideas
are powerful. Ideas do matter. But only if good
people are there to promulgate them.
The time to start recruiting those people is now.
