Nearly lost in the torrent of election and financial news last
week was an event that will make the history books in Asia:
High-level officials from China and Taiwan signed an agreement
for direct daily flights, streamlined cargo routes, and postal
service, thus putting further into the past the decades-long
civil war between the two.
When he was inaugurated president of the Republic of China on
Taiwan in May, Ma Ying-jeou said, “I sincerely hope that the two
sides of the Taiwan Strait can seize this historic opportunity to
achieve peace and co-prosperity.” This agreement is a concrete
step in that direction.
The overarching theme of his inauguration was the inclusion of
all elements of Taiwan society in a unified effort to move
forward economically, live peacefully with its giant neighbor,
yet not change the political status quo. These were embodied in
Ma’s statement, “No unification, no independence, no use of
force.”
Although Ma won a landslide victory over of the discredited
Democratic People’s Party last spring, the DPP still commands the
loyalty of a large number of citizens and its raison d’etre has
always been independence for Taiwan. When the new agreement with
China was signed in Taipei last week, thousands of DPP supporters
took to the streets for a noisy two-day demonstration, condemning
both China and President Ma.
China’s Chen Yunlin and P.K. Chiang, respectively, the heads of
their governments’ cross-strait liaison bodies, signed the new
agreement at the Grand Hotel, overlooking downtown Taipei during
what was the first visit to Taiwan by a senior official of the
mainland government since the conclusion of fighting in the civil
war in 1949.
The agreement calls for daily flights between China and Taiwan
(replacing weekend-only tourist flights, agreed upon at a Beijing
meeting this past summer), along with direct port-to-port
shipping and postal service. This is a boon for commerce for both
sides, as it replaces the cumbersome arrangement whereby flights
and shipments had to go through intermediate cities such as Hong
Kong.
The two sides agreed also to notify one another of food safety
issues — in the wake of the widening scandal on the mainland
over tainted powdered milk.
In recent years, many Taiwan businesses have invested in
factories on the mainland. The agreement makes visits far easier.
Taiwan travel firms expect a steady flow of China tourists
visiting the island. International companies with offices in both
Taiwan and the mainland will welcome the new arrangement, for
both personnel and goods will move more quickly and easily across
the Taiwan Strait.
The Ma Administration is betting that the streamlining of
contacts and commerce between the two will boost Taiwan’s
economy, which has been suffering with the international
downturn. Indeed, Ma’s job approval rating has dropped from very
high to near-George W. Bush levels.
The next round of bilateral talks is planned to take place on the
mainland early next year. Likely items on the agenda: legal
protection of Taiwan investors in mainland enterprises;
cooperative measures in the area of criminal law enforcement;
“normalization” in the financial matters such as banking,
securities and futures.
Hovering in the background of this new “era of good feeling” is
the unification issue. Beijing continues to claim sovereignty
over Taiwan, and its coast facing Taiwan bristles with rockets.
The ROC has the backing of the U.S. Taiwan Relations Act (30
years of age next spring) which commits us to supplying Taiwan
with sufficient arms to defend itself.
This is not as contradictory as it may seem. With the exception
of the eight years of the DPP’s pro-independence reign in Taipei,
tensions between the two sides have been gradually declining for
some time. And, as is well known, Chinese people have a great
capacity for patience. The two sides will work things out in
their own time, almost certainly without resorting to war.
Nevertheless, a well-armed Taiwan serves as a deterrent.
(Peter Hannaford was a consultant to agencies of the
of the government of the Republic of China on Taiwan from
1977-95.)
