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Campaign Crawlers
Today's Tip Sheet
(Page 2 of 2)
Several House districts in Florida will be in play this hour, including the 8th, 16th, 21st, 24th, and 25th. Democrat Tim Mahoney won the Republican-leaning 16th district after Mark Foley resigned in scandal a month before the election; there must be something in the water down there, because now Mahoney has his own scandal involving a payoff to a former mistress, and will probably lose his bid for reelection (Rep. gain). The other four are all held by Republicans, and I'm betting that they'll split: Ric Keller and Tom Feeney will lose in the 8th and 24th, respectively (Dem. gain times 2), and brothers Lincoln Diaz-Balart and Mario Diaz-Balart will hang on in the 21st and 25th (Rep. hold times 2). If I'm wrong: the Florida house races could be an early indicator both of how big the Democratic majority in the House will be and of which way Florida's electoral votes will go. If my predictions are wrong in one direction, it could indicate a trend, and will test the coattails vs. see-saw question discussed above.
7:30 -- Polls close in Ohio and West Virginia. The former will be a squeaker, and based on the latest polls I think Obama will win by a nose after a long night of counting (O+20). McCain should win in West Virginia (M+5). If I'm wrong: Ohio is a must-win for McCain, so he keeps his chances for an upset alive if he pulls it out. West Virginia should be an early bellweather: If it's too close to call for very long after the polls close, Obama's in very, very good shape.
8:00 -- Polls close in 15 states and the District of Columbia. The Senate race to watch this hour is New Hampshire's rematch of the 2002 race between John Sununu and Jeanne Shaheen; Shaheen looks poised to get her revenge (Dem. gain). If I'm wrong: If Sununu hangs on he'll defy every recent poll. New Hampshire is out of reach for McCain -- ironic, considering that McCain won his primary race there and Obama lost his -- so an upset would bolster the see-saw theory (that the polls make this look so improbable is another reason I'm skeptical of the see-saw idea).
The presidential battleground states to watch this hour are Missouri, Pennsylvania and Florida. I'd bet on McCain in Missouri (M+11) and Obama in Pennsylvania and Florida (O+48); I'm least confident in the Florida prediction. If I'm wrong: Missouri and Florida are two more states that McCain needs if he's going to beat Obama. And if McCain can win Pennsylvania, he can win the election, which is why the McCain campaign made a push in the Keystone State in the closing weeks of the campaign.
House seats to keep an eye on this hour include Illinois's 10th and 11th districts, both Republican seats that seem poised to fall (Dem. gain times 2). Chris Shays, the last House Republican in New England, is in a close race in Connecticut's 4th district, but I'm betting he'll pull through (Rep. hold). If I'm wrong: If Shays is knocked out, it will be because of Obama's coattails, and a blow to see-saw theory.
8:30 -- Polls close in North Carolina and Arkansas. All the action is in North Carolina, where Elizabeth Dole seems poised to lose her Senate seat to Kay Hagan (Dem. gain), Beverly Perdue has the edge of Pat McCrory in the governor's race (Dem. hold), and Larry Kissell looks poised to pick off Rep. Robin Hayes, which he came within a few hundred votes of doing in 2006, in NC-8 (Dem. gain). I'm calling all of those races for the Democrats in part because they'll benefit from Obama's get out the vote (GOTV) effort, but I'm betting that Obama will fall just short of turning North Carolina blue (M+15). If I'm wrong: This is another state that may give us some insight into the coattails vs. see-saw question. If Obama wins North Carolina, or if McCain wins and Republicans do better downballot than I'm forecasting, bet on coattails. If McCain wins by a surprisingly wide margin -- three recent polls show a one-point race -- there may be something to the see-saw.
9:00 -- Polls close in 14 states. Cousins Tom and Mark Udall are heavily favored to win their respective races for open seats in New Mexico and Colorado (Dem. gain times 2). Both of those states are likely to turn blue (O+14), but McCain should hang on to his home state of Arizona despite some uncomfortably close polls (M+10).
The really hot race this hour is in Minnesota, where Norm Coleman is defending his seat against Al Franken, with independent Dean Barkley playing spoiler (Barkley briefly held this seat in the Senate after being appointed by then-Gov. Jesse Ventura for the 2002 lame duck session between Paul Wellstone's death and Coleman's swearing-in). Coleman will hang on (Rep. hold). If I'm wrong: The worst nationally-syndicated host in the history of talk radio will join the Senate, and Minnesota will be demoted from "state" to "region full of idiots between Wisconsin and the Dakotas" in the minds of all right-thinking people.
10:00 -- Polls close in four states (and in parts of four others). The presidential battlegrounds this hour are Montana, which still looks reddish (M+3), and Nevada, which is looking bluish (O+5). If I'm wrong: Obama can still win without Nevada, but McCain can't win without Montana unless he's scored an upset in Pennsylvania.
11:00 -- Polls close in six states; the only one on the presidential radar is North Dakota, but even with polls showing a toss up it's hard to believe that Obama could turn this state blue without having made much of an effort (M+3). If I'm wrong: If Obama's winning North Dakota, it probably means he's winning big across the country, and you'll probably already know that by this time of the night.
The Senate race to watch this hour is in Oregon, where Jeff Merkley seems poised to unseat Republican Gordon Smith (Dem. gain). If I'm wrong: If Smith hangs on, it's very hard to see Democrats reaching a filibuster-proof supermajority.
In Washington, Dino Rossi, who lost by only 129 votes in 2004, is making another run for the governor's mansion, but this time Christine Gregoire has the advantage of incumbency and is likely to hang on (Dem. hold).
12:00 -- Polls close in most of Alaska. (The western half of the Aleutian Islands don't close until 1:00 AM EST, but media outlets have historically called Alaskan races in this hour.) Scandal-plagued, pork-mongering Republicans Sen. Ted Stevens and At-Large Rep. Don Young both deserve to lose, and will (Dem. gain, Dem. gain).
All that adds up to a 338-200 electoral vote victory for Barack Obama and a 7-seat gain in the Senate for Democrats, giving them 56 seats -- effectively 57 seats, counting socialist independent Bernie Sanders (and 58 if you count Joe Lieberman). As for the House, the above is not a comprehensive survey of competitive races, just a sampling. My guess is that Democrats will gain at least 15 seats, making the House 251-184.
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Tom Paine| 11.4.08 @ 8:31AM
Republicans and Conservatives --
If John McCain had chosen Lieberman, or even better, Olympia Snow, as his running mate, you all would be planning the biggest celebration of your lives right now.
Instead, he chose a divisive woman who believes that "real" America doesn't even include ground zero, which was real enough for Bin Laden.
He chose to placate Rush Limbaugh, and for that, he's going to lose this election.
So, instead of firing up the barbacue pit or doing whatever it is Republicans do when they celebrate, you all will be thinking about how you'll spend your time in the wilderness, and I will be opening bottles of chilled chablis and eating arugula salads to celebrate the victory of Democrats nationwide.
Lesson for Republicans: don't be the new John Birch society. Follow Chris Shays and other moderate Republicans, and you'll be back in the game in no time.
Jim Youmans| 11.4.08 @ 8:55AM
Tom, your glass is half empty... nowhere near half full. The reason Mccain is losing is because HE is too liberal and he tried to balance that out with a real conservative... too little too late. The Republican party needs to re-discover their conservative roots and THAT is what will bring them back to power. Thought of the day: a high percentage of people surveyed say the country is going in the wrong direction... Question: Are we as a nation becoming more liberal or conservative? Of course the answer is liberal... WRONG DIRECTION!!!
Tom Paine| 11.4.08 @ 9:04AM
Jim Youmans,
No one can say you didn't try. However, those wrong direction polls shot up during the past 8 years, when Republicans were mostly in control of the federal government.
Polls have consistently shown that Palin is dragging down McCain's ticket in the places that really count right now. And it's not as though Republicans would have voted for Obama to protest a Lieberman on the ticket.
WendyG| 11.4.08 @ 9:18AM
John McCain picked THE most popular Governor in the country, in terms of her state approvals.
Obama picked a guy who made so many gaffes - but gaffes unreported by the press - a press in the tank for Obama.
George Bush did his job too well. He kept us so safe after 9-11 that many Americans forgot we are at war.
Thankfully we have the Roberts Supreme Court as our only bulwark against the lefty swing we might see today.
james23| 11.4.08 @ 9:38AM
Any conservative taking advice on how to do better next time from troll boy Tom Paine ought to have his head examined.
"Tom," should your guy win tonight, enjoy your 4 years of peace, love and socialism. We'll run a conservative against you next time.
Bob Miller| 11.4.08 @ 10:16AM
If there is no blowout---it will take a while to sort out how many voters (live, dead, multiple) voted for President (McCain, Obama) in the most contested states and districts. Polls may be held open late in some urban areas to allow totals to be improved (legally, illegally) on behalf of one presidential and/or other candidate. Lawyers of both parties are already circling overhead.
mnrepublican1| 11.4.08 @ 10:20AM
Thanks for saying what you said about my state, Mr. Tabin. Jesse Ventura was our governor. If enough of us are idiots and we actually elect comedian Al Franken to the Senate, I hope we just go ahead and elect a goat to the House the next chance we get, and really cement our reputation as the biggest rubes in the country.
Anthony| 11.4.08 @ 10:39AM
Tom's new role after the Obama coronation will be to sign up for Obama's National Civilian Security Force, no doubt as a high ranking member, due to his service to the cause by participating in discussions with us at TAS. Tom, post Obama victory, will, no doubt, monitor this site to insure it meets all "Fairness Doctrine" standards. In other words, that "chill wind in the air", that that moron actor was so concerned about, will be aimed at talk radio and the internet after Obama takes office. Tom, you can suspend the game plan, now that the election is happening, and stop all the crap about how Palin was a drag on the ticket. Yeah, right, I'd be kicking up my heels over Olympia Snow as VP. Just Tom's type of Republican, weak and meek. But Tom, seriously, fill us in on the game plan going forward, will ya? Do tell us what exactly Obama has in mind with his Civilian Security Force, that he wants to fund on a level of the military. What will all you storm troopers be doing all day? Are brown shirts and jack boots de rigueur? Where will the Bill Ayer's re-education camps be located? Should we plan on dressing for cold or warm, or won't it matter?
ManbitesDog| 11.4.08 @ 10:41AM
Anyone thinking this election is not racially motivated is brian dead. Yes, anyone has a right to vote, but you should vote for the person who holds your views and values, not the one who looks like you do. Obama has no experience or history of accomplishments to bring to the table. Would you let an infant drive your car through a school yard full of children? No, so why elect someone with no clue, but talks a good game. People actually think they will be getting something for nothing from this socialist marxist. Be ready for the pill you are about to feed the nation.
John | 11.4.08 @ 11:11AM
Tom Paine
You have been waiting a long eight years but don't pop that cork just yet. Heavy, seeming unbeatable favorites like nobama tend to lose the big race.
Tom Paine| 11.4.08 @ 11:26AM
I've read your posts, and in general I'm pleased by the lack of paranoid or delusive hatred in them.
You can be sure I won't report this site to the new squads of liberal thought police who will be trolling the internet looking for dissent. Because liberals are so well known for censorship.
In fact, the only bit of post-election oppression of the forces of freedom I plan to engage in is a little unionizing work at my local Outback Steakhouse, so prepare yourselves for higher prices on that Top Sirloin you treat yourselves too in the months ahead.
I may also engage in a little celebratory worship of heathen gods, or maybe play a little of that Elvis Presley fella who is convincing our good Christian young white people to dance like negroes.
But after today, no, you won't have Tom Paine to worry about anymore. And the Fairness Doctrine? It'll be a cold day in hell before that passes: don't worry.
What SHOULD you worry about?
1. Expanded investment in infrastructure that makes our economy more productive and creates tens of thousands of high paying jobs that can't be outsourced.
2. Expanded investment in schools so we can end the squalid nightmare public education is becoming.
3. Lower taxes if you make less than 200,000 dollars a year. The same taxes if you make 200,000 -- 250,000. Higher taxes (back to the rates of the 90s) if you make more than a quarter of a million dollars.
4. A return to high standards for government agencies now grown complacent with incompetence and corruption. All that ends Jan. 20, folks.
That's for starters.
Dwayne Baptist| 11.4.08 @ 11:28AM
If there is any reason why Republican disapprovals have been up over the past 8 years, it is because Republicans have been behaving like Democrats while controlling the Congress and the Executive Branch. Limited, enumerated powers. That is what the Constitution spells out, and is the core of conservative principles. When Republicans pretend to be Democrats, Democrats prosper.
The challenge conservatives face is that we understand people are emotional, and that rational does not equate to logical. However, we attempt to appeal to the public using logic rather than emotion. Liberals, on the other hand, think people are logical, and their policies often reflect that, allowing for their world view (permitting or not permitting things for the benefit of everybody). BUT.... they usually use emotion to market their ideas, which is what appeals to humans.
It is mind boggling on one level that we don't seem to understand this and constantly allow ourselves to be marginalized. But I suppose that is due, in part, to the reality that it is tough to "sell nothing" -- which is what limited government often appears to be about.
Tom Paine| 11.4.08 @ 11:39AM
IN 2000 and 2004 Democrats were inundated with outraged voices from the fringes of the far left.
All said the same thing: if we'd just nominated a good old leftist -- someone who would cut defense spending in half and give everyone universal health insurance -- we would have beat Bush.
This happens every year. The losing fringe in a sense claims victory by saying that if only its views (shared by maybe 15 % of the country) were heeded, their party would have one.
The truth is, we may be a center-right country, but the word "center" is more important in that term than the word "right."
Reagan was popular with 65 or 70% of the electorate, but so was Bill Clinton.
The fact is that we're a pragmatic and not an ideological people, despite what Limbaugh and his friends bray and honk about on the radio.
You'll see today. McCain tried to cater to his base with all that talk about Obama being a communist or a terrorist, and the moderates thought it was ugly and foolish. That's why you lost.
T the D| 11.4.08 @ 12:33PM
I guess my comments has less to do with this article and more to do with some of the comments that followed.
I'm SO tired of hearing how McCain could have won if he had picked a different running mate. And I'm tired of the crap people spew about Sarah Palin.
First, this election isn't over. None of us know what the outcome will be at this point.
Second, I firmly believe the reason John McCain and other Republicans haven't had a good showing this election is because of their willingness to just let the liberal machine walk all over them.
The fact that the McCain camp couldn't (or wouldn't) go after Obama based on the plethora of information proving him to be a radical and inadequate choice for president is reprehensible.
If Obama wins, THAT will be why. Not because John McCain chose Sarah Palin.
~T the D
http://thedrunkelephant.blogspot.com/
Tom Paine| 11.4.08 @ 1:14PM
T the D --
Rather than talking in insipid and vague generalities (e.g. "the liberal machine") why not specify what you mean.
If you really want to blame someone other than your candidate for the fact that he lost this election, who will you blame?
The liberal media? Please. Tell me precisely how the media were so powerful they made the Republican ticket lose.
What evil trick did Couric play on Palin? What question was the "trap" she set?
How else did the "liberal machine" hurt you?
Be specific and make some attempt to explain your reasoning.
Or, just accept the fact that Republicans lost across the board today because Americans are not pleased with their incompetent, greedy, and deceitful history of government and are rejecting their contempt for government and other institutions (e.g. the press, science, the educational system).
oldpapajoe| 11.4.08 @ 1:43PM
Tom Paine is crazy if he thinks Palin cost McCain a win. Without her, McCain would have lost more red states. Libermann? Are you out of your mind? That is north east talk man. To coin a phrase, the chickens came home to roost for McCain: he played nice with the Dems and lost the Republcan base. We voted for him out of "the best bad deal" option. Without Palin most conservatives I know would not have voted at all.
Tom Paine| 11.4.08 @ 1:58PM
Oldpapajoe --
You're just not calling this one right, my friend.
Look at the numbers. Palin dragged down McCain's numbers in the midwest, which is precisely what he needed to win.
If the Republican party gives in to the John Birch nonsense that Palin spewed for the last two months, it will become a regional party.
Not that I'd mind that, although it is unfortunate that you'll lose people like Chris Shays today.
Enjoy your stay in the wilderness. Don't bow down to any graven images.
Howard Ino| 11.4.08 @ 3:33PM
Of McCain picked either of your choices... I would have voted for Barr!
Tom Payne... "If John McCain had chosen Lieberman, or even better, Olympia Snow, as his running mate, you all would be planning the biggest celebration of your lives right now. "
Patriot| 11.4.08 @ 6:58PM
"Tom Paine" (i.e. some Tom Dumb posing as the real Thomas Paine's ideological opposite) has apparently yet to learn that his crystal ball is severely cracked, much as he is. He can't even read the past, much less the future, as he has apparently forgotten that Kerry was to the left of fellow Senator Edward Kennedy (who in turn is to the left of Fidel Castro) and chose far-left trial lawyer John Edwards (egad!) as his running mate. If a leftard running mate really made people more electable, in other words, Kerry would have won quite easily in 2004. So much for that part of Tom Dumb's BS!
As for the rest of his predictions, I make some that I can guarantee are more accurate:
1. We'll have expanded government spending on bridges to nowhere, digging random holes in the ground and filling them in again, and purely elective warring in Sudan which will bankrupt the economy, as will the odd hurricane, mudslide, forest fire, and nuclear explosion in or over a major American city.
2. We'll have expanded investment in an even greater army of school bureaucrats and other parasites who'll harass and eat out the substance of our students and teachers alike while making those evil places even more of a prison and a squalid nightmare than they already are.
3. We'll have higher taxes for anyone who makes more than $30,000. The highest rate will be 70%, just as it was back in the 1970s, until Obama raises it to 95% in an effort to make America more like Europe. ('Cause he's the tax man... yea-ah, he's the tax man... and you're working for no one but him...)
4. Government agencies will continue to hire and be headed by the most incompetent fools on earth, due to their being under the direct command of Jeremiah Wright, William Ayers, and Al Franken. Moreover, they will continue to grow exponentially in number and size until everyone is either officially their employee or doing "involuntary volunteer work" for them.
As for Tom Dumb the leftard troll here, he'll be doing some "community service" as it's obvious from his cult-like recitation of leftard talking points that he's a brainwashed 16-year-old from the as-yet unofficial Obamajungen.
Richard| 11.4.08 @ 7:19PM
Hello Tom,
If McCain had chosen Lieberman, I could not have voted for him (it was not easy as it was); and I know I am not alone in that sentiment.
Would Lieberman have picked up more independent voters than he would have lost among conservatives? It's a good question to ask.
Josh F| 11.10.08 @ 8:31PM
Who says a week later is too late to comment? We need to stop complaining about the media bias and it's impact on this election. There was media bias in favor of Obama no question, but that was due in part because Obama flat-out out-messaged, out-campaigned, out-fundraised, and out-energized voters in comparison to McCain. Obama won. McCain was not cheated. "Vote for us because we're mavericks" is not a message; it's a lame jingle for a campaign that is bankrupt on imagination, ideas, and intelligence.
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