Campaign Crawlers
Today’s Tip Sheet
What to expect on Election Day night.
Today, as you may have heard, is election day. Below you’ll find a guide to watching the results come in, with my predictions on key races and notes on how to interpret the results when my predictions are off the mark.
This guide is written with the following assumptions:
- McCain will easily win Kentucky, Tennessee, South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, Wyoming, Idaho, Utah, and Alaska for a total of 118 electoral votes.
- Obama will easily win Hawaii, Washington, Oregon, California, Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, Maryland, DC, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine, for a total of 228 electoral votes.
- Republicans will easily win Senate races in Wyoming, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Alabama, Tennessee, and Maine as well as both the regular and special Senate elections in Mississippi.
- Democrats will easily win Senate races in Montana, South Dakota, Iowa, Illinois, Arkansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New Jersey, and Delaware.
- Republicans will easily win Governor’s races in North Dakota, Utah, and Vermont.
- Democrats will easily win Governor’s races in Montana, West Virginia, New Hampshire, and Delaware.
I won’t be mentioning every House seat that could conceivably change hands, so no assumption should necessarily be read into the omission of a particular House race.
One other important note: I believe that the primary relationship between the presidential race and downballot races will be a coattails effect — if a party is doing well in House and Senate races it’s an indicator that that party’s candidate for president will do well, and vice versa. But some have posited that in this election, the opposite might be true; ticket splitting could be common enough to reverse the coattails effect. Here’s how Mickey Kaus explains it:
don’t feel guilty about compensate or hedge In this theory, Obama and downballot Dems are on a see-saw: The better Obama does, the worse the downballot Dems do, and vice versa.
The reason I don’t think this will be the prevailing pattern is that I’m guessing Obama will gain more votes by increasing turnout among Democrats than he will by persuading independents, so the see-saw effect will be overwhelmed. We’ll see, as the night roles on, whether I’m right.
Senate predictions are in bold and italics. House predictions are in bold. Gubernatorial predictions are in italics. Electoral vote predictions are in bold, with M+x indicating that McCain adds x number of electoral votes to his total and O+y indicating that Obama adds y number of electoral votes to his total.
6:00 — Polls close in the Eastern Time portions of Indiana and Kentucky. The first race to keep an eye on is in Indiana’s third congressional district. A district that voted at least 2-1 for President Bush in the last two elections shouldn’t be close, but some polls have shown Democratic challenger Michael Montagano within striking distance or even ahead of incumbent Republican Mark Souder. I’m betting Souder will hang on in the end (Rep. hold). If I’m wrong: If IN-3 flips, or even if it remains too close to call long after the polls close, it could be a harbinger of a big Democratic wave in the House.
7:00 — Polls close in the rest of Indiana and Kentucky, in the Eastern Time portion of Florida, and in four more states including Georgia and Virginia. Mitch McConnell and Saxby Chambliss will hang on in Kentucky and Georgia, respectively, though the polls have been much closer than they should be (Rep. hold times 2). If I’m wrong: If McConnell and Chambliss lose, there will be a good chance of a filibuster-proof Democratic majority in the Senate.
Mark Warner will win the Senate race in Virginia (Dem. gain), and Obama will probably win Virginia’s electors (O+13). McCain will probably win in Indiana (M+11) and Georgia (M+15). If I’m wrong: If McCain can pull it out in Virginia, he still has a hope of victory — unless he doesn’t win Indiana. Georgia should be a gimme for McCain, but polls have tightened, and Libertarian candidate Bob Barr (a former congressman from Georgia) could be a spoiler if he performs well enough. If Obama can pick off Georgia, he’s got the race in the bag.
As RiShawn Biddle detailed yesterday, Gov. Mitch Daniels will be reelected in Indiana (Rep. hold). I only mention it here because if Indiana is too close to call at the presidential level, the margin in the governor’s race could give a hint as to which way the presidential race is headed. Polls indicate that Daniels should be posting a margin of victory of 20 points or more. If he seems to be underperforming that — if he’s only winning by 10 points with a large majority of precincts reporting, say — it may be a sign of increased Democratic turnout.
About the Author
John Tabin is a frequent contributor to The American Spectator online.
Letter to the Editor View all comments (40) | Leave a comment
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Tom Paine| 11.4.08 @ 8:31AM
Republicans and Conservatives --
If John McCain had chosen Lieberman, or even better, Olympia Snow, as his running mate, you all would be planning the biggest celebration of your lives right now.
Instead, he chose a divisive woman who believes that "real" America doesn't even include ground zero, which was real enough for Bin Laden.
He chose to placate Rush Limbaugh, and for that, he's going to lose this election.
So, instead of firing up the barbacue pit or doing whatever it is Republicans do when they celebrate, you all will be thinking about how you'll spend your time in the wilderness, and I will be opening bottles of chilled chablis and eating arugula salads to celebrate the victory of Democrats nationwide.
Lesson for Republicans: don't be the new John Birch society. Follow Chris Shays and other moderate Republicans, and you'll be back in the game in no time.
Jim Youmans| 11.4.08 @ 8:55AM
Tom, your glass is half empty... nowhere near half full. The reason Mccain is losing is because HE is too liberal and he tried to balance that out with a real conservative... too little too late. The Republican party needs to re-discover their conservative roots and THAT is what will bring them back to power. Thought of the day: a high percentage of people surveyed say the country is going in the wrong direction... Question: Are we as a nation becoming more liberal or conservative? Of course the answer is liberal... WRONG DIRECTION!!!
Tom Paine| 11.4.08 @ 9:04AM
Jim Youmans,
No one can say you didn't try. However, those wrong direction polls shot up during the past 8 years, when Republicans were mostly in control of the federal government.
Polls have consistently shown that Palin is dragging down McCain's ticket in the places that really count right now. And it's not as though Republicans would have voted for Obama to protest a Lieberman on the ticket.
WendyG| 11.4.08 @ 9:18AM
John McCain picked THE most popular Governor in the country, in terms of her state approvals.
Obama picked a guy who made so many gaffes - but gaffes unreported by the press - a press in the tank for Obama.
George Bush did his job too well. He kept us so safe after 9-11 that many Americans forgot we are at war.
Thankfully we have the Roberts Supreme Court as our only bulwark against the lefty swing we might see today.
james23| 11.4.08 @ 9:38AM
Any conservative taking advice on how to do better next time from troll boy Tom Paine ought to have his head examined.
"Tom," should your guy win tonight, enjoy your 4 years of peace, love and socialism. We'll run a conservative against you next time.
Bob Miller| 11.4.08 @ 10:16AM
If there is no blowout---it will take a while to sort out how many voters (live, dead, multiple) voted for President (McCain, Obama) in the most contested states and districts. Polls may be held open late in some urban areas to allow totals to be improved (legally, illegally) on behalf of one presidential and/or other candidate. Lawyers of both parties are already circling overhead.
mnrepublican1| 11.4.08 @ 10:20AM
Thanks for saying what you said about my state, Mr. Tabin. Jesse Ventura was our governor. If enough of us are idiots and we actually elect comedian Al Franken to the Senate, I hope we just go ahead and elect a goat to the House the next chance we get, and really cement our reputation as the biggest rubes in the country.
Anthony| 11.4.08 @ 10:39AM
Tom's new role after the Obama coronation will be to sign up for Obama's National Civilian Security Force, no doubt as a high ranking member, due to his service to the cause by participating in discussions with us at TAS. Tom, post Obama victory, will, no doubt, monitor this site to insure it meets all "Fairness Doctrine" standards. In other words, that "chill wind in the air", that that moron actor was so concerned about, will be aimed at talk radio and the internet after Obama takes office. Tom, you can suspend the game plan, now that the election is happening, and stop all the crap about how Palin was a drag on the ticket. Yeah, right, I'd be kicking up my heels over Olympia Snow as VP. Just Tom's type of Republican, weak and meek. But Tom, seriously, fill us in on the game plan going forward, will ya? Do tell us what exactly Obama has in mind with his Civilian Security Force, that he wants to fund on a level of the military. What will all you storm troopers be doing all day? Are brown shirts and jack boots de rigueur? Where will the Bill Ayer's re-education camps be located? Should we plan on dressing for cold or warm, or won't it matter?
ManbitesDog| 11.4.08 @ 10:41AM
Anyone thinking this election is not racially motivated is brian dead. Yes, anyone has a right to vote, but you should vote for the person who holds your views and values, not the one who looks like you do. Obama has no experience or history of accomplishments to bring to the table. Would you let an infant drive your car through a school yard full of children? No, so why elect someone with no clue, but talks a good game. People actually think they will be getting something for nothing from this socialist marxist. Be ready for the pill you are about to feed the nation.
John | 11.4.08 @ 11:11AM
Tom Paine
You have been waiting a long eight years but don't pop that cork just yet. Heavy, seeming unbeatable favorites like nobama tend to lose the big race.
Tom Paine| 11.4.08 @ 11:26AM
I've read your posts, and in general I'm pleased by the lack of paranoid or delusive hatred in them.
You can be sure I won't report this site to the new squads of liberal thought police who will be trolling the internet looking for dissent. Because liberals are so well known for censorship.
In fact, the only bit of post-election oppression of the forces of freedom I plan to engage in is a little unionizing work at my local Outback Steakhouse, so prepare yourselves for higher prices on that Top Sirloin you treat yourselves too in the months ahead.
I may also engage in a little celebratory worship of heathen gods, or maybe play a little of that Elvis Presley fella who is convincing our good Christian young white people to dance like negroes.
But after today, no, you won't have Tom Paine to worry about anymore. And the Fairness Doctrine? It'll be a cold day in hell before that passes: don't worry.
What SHOULD you worry about?
1. Expanded investment in infrastructure that makes our economy more productive and creates tens of thousands of high paying jobs that can't be outsourced.
2. Expanded investment in schools so we can end the squalid nightmare public education is becoming.
3. Lower taxes if you make less than 200,000 dollars a year. The same taxes if you make 200,000 -- 250,000. Higher taxes (back to the rates of the 90s) if you make more than a quarter of a million dollars.
4. A return to high standards for government agencies now grown complacent with incompetence and corruption. All that ends Jan. 20, folks.
That's for starters.
Dwayne Baptist| 11.4.08 @ 11:28AM
If there is any reason why Republican disapprovals have been up over the past 8 years, it is because Republicans have been behaving like Democrats while controlling the Congress and the Executive Branch. Limited, enumerated powers. That is what the Constitution spells out, and is the core of conservative principles. When Republicans pretend to be Democrats, Democrats prosper.
The challenge conservatives face is that we understand people are emotional, and that rational does not equate to logical. However, we attempt to appeal to the public using logic rather than emotion. Liberals, on the other hand, think people are logical, and their policies often reflect that, allowing for their world view (permitting or not permitting things for the benefit of everybody). BUT.... they usually use emotion to market their ideas, which is what appeals to humans.
It is mind boggling on one level that we don't seem to understand this and constantly allow ourselves to be marginalized. But I suppose that is due, in part, to the reality that it is tough to "sell nothing" -- which is what limited government often appears to be about.
Tom Paine| 11.4.08 @ 11:39AM
IN 2000 and 2004 Democrats were inundated with outraged voices from the fringes of the far left.
All said the same thing: if we'd just nominated a good old leftist -- someone who would cut defense spending in half and give everyone universal health insurance -- we would have beat Bush.
This happens every year. The losing fringe in a sense claims victory by saying that if only its views (shared by maybe 15 % of the country) were heeded, their party would have one.
The truth is, we may be a center-right country, but the word "center" is more important in that term than the word "right."
Reagan was popular with 65 or 70% of the electorate, but so was Bill Clinton.
The fact is that we're a pragmatic and not an ideological people, despite what Limbaugh and his friends bray and honk about on the radio.
You'll see today. McCain tried to cater to his base with all that talk about Obama being a communist or a terrorist, and the moderates thought it was ugly and foolish. That's why you lost.
T the D | 11.4.08 @ 12:33PM
I guess my comments has less to do with this article and more to do with some of the comments that followed.
I'm SO tired of hearing how McCain could have won if he had picked a different running mate. And I'm tired of the crap people spew about Sarah Palin.
First, this election isn't over. None of us know what the outcome will be at this point.
Second, I firmly believe the reason John McCain and other Republicans haven't had a good showing this election is because of their willingness to just let the liberal machine walk all over them.
The fact that the McCain camp couldn't (or wouldn't) go after Obama based on the plethora of information proving him to be a radical and inadequate choice for president is reprehensible.
If Obama wins, THAT will be why. Not because John McCain chose Sarah Palin.
~T the D
http://thedrunkelephant.blogspot.com/
Tom Paine| 11.4.08 @ 1:14PM
T the D --
Rather than talking in insipid and vague generalities (e.g. "the liberal machine") why not specify what you mean.
If you really want to blame someone other than your candidate for the fact that he lost this election, who will you blame?
The liberal media? Please. Tell me precisely how the media were so powerful they made the Republican ticket lose.
What evil trick did Couric play on Palin? What question was the "trap" she set?
How else did the "liberal machine" hurt you?
Be specific and make some attempt to explain your reasoning.
Or, just accept the fact that Republicans lost across the board today because Americans are not pleased with their incompetent, greedy, and deceitful history of government and are rejecting their contempt for government and other institutions (e.g. the press, science, the educational system).
oldpapajoe| 11.4.08 @ 1:43PM
Tom Paine is crazy if he thinks Palin cost McCain a win. Without her, McCain would have lost more red states. Libermann? Are you out of your mind? That is north east talk man. To coin a phrase, the chickens came home to roost for McCain: he played nice with the Dems and lost the Republcan base. We voted for him out of "the best bad deal" option. Without Palin most conservatives I know would not have voted at all.
Tom Paine| 11.4.08 @ 1:58PM
Oldpapajoe --
You're just not calling this one right, my friend.
Look at the numbers. Palin dragged down McCain's numbers in the midwest, which is precisely what he needed to win.
If the Republican party gives in to the John Birch nonsense that Palin spewed for the last two months, it will become a regional party.
Not that I'd mind that, although it is unfortunate that you'll lose people like Chris Shays today.
Enjoy your stay in the wilderness. Don't bow down to any graven images.
Howard Ino| 11.4.08 @ 3:33PM
Of McCain picked either of your choices... I would have voted for Barr!
Tom Payne... "If John McCain had chosen Lieberman, or even better, Olympia Snow, as his running mate, you all would be planning the biggest celebration of your lives right now. "
Patriot| 11.4.08 @ 6:58PM
"Tom Paine" (i.e. some Tom Dumb posing as the real Thomas Paine's ideological opposite) has apparently yet to learn that his crystal ball is severely cracked, much as he is. He can't even read the past, much less the future, as he has apparently forgotten that Kerry was to the left of fellow Senator Edward Kennedy (who in turn is to the left of Fidel Castro) and chose far-left trial lawyer John Edwards (egad!) as his running mate. If a leftard running mate really made people more electable, in other words, Kerry would have won quite easily in 2004. So much for that part of Tom Dumb's BS!
As for the rest of his predictions, I make some that I can guarantee are more accurate:
1. We'll have expanded government spending on bridges to nowhere, digging random holes in the ground and filling them in again, and purely elective warring in Sudan which will bankrupt the economy, as will the odd hurricane, mudslide, forest fire, and nuclear explosion in or over a major American city.
2. We'll have expanded investment in an even greater army of school bureaucrats and other parasites who'll harass and eat out the substance of our students and teachers alike while making those evil places even more of a prison and a squalid nightmare than they already are.
3. We'll have higher taxes for anyone who makes more than $30,000. The highest rate will be 70%, just as it was back in the 1970s, until Obama raises it to 95% in an effort to make America more like Europe. ('Cause he's the tax man... yea-ah, he's the tax man... and you're working for no one but him...)
4. Government agencies will continue to hire and be headed by the most incompetent fools on earth, due to their being under the direct command of Jeremiah Wright, William Ayers, and Al Franken. Moreover, they will continue to grow exponentially in number and size until everyone is either officially their employee or doing "involuntary volunteer work" for them.
As for Tom Dumb the leftard troll here, he'll be doing some "community service" as it's obvious from his cult-like recitation of leftard talking points that he's a brainwashed 16-year-old from the as-yet unofficial Obamajungen.
Richard| 11.4.08 @ 7:19PM
Hello Tom,
If McCain had chosen Lieberman, I could not have voted for him (it was not easy as it was); and I know I am not alone in that sentiment.
Would Lieberman have picked up more independent voters than he would have lost among conservatives? It's a good question to ask.
Josh F| 11.10.08 @ 8:31PM
Who says a week later is too late to comment? We need to stop complaining about the media bias and it's impact on this election. There was media bias in favor of Obama no question, but that was due in part because Obama flat-out out-messaged, out-campaigned, out-fundraised, and out-energized voters in comparison to McCain. Obama won. McCain was not cheated. "Vote for us because we're mavericks" is not a message; it's a lame jingle for a campaign that is bankrupt on imagination, ideas, and intelligence.
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