As the 2008 campaign reaches the final stretch, the National
Republican Congressional Campaign Committee (NRCC) is pulling the
plug — on advertising funding for GOP House members whose races
seem beyond hope. With many seats to defend and limited cash on
hand, House Republicans are being very careful about how they
spend their campaign dollars. If only they had been as
tightfisted with taxpayer money while they were in charge.
One of the victims is Michelle Bachmann, a freshman congresswoman
representing Minnesota’s Sixth District. While cruising to what
should have been an easy re-election, her Hardball
comments that the media should investigate anti-American
sentiment among members of Congress filled her Democratic
challenger’s campaign coffers with more than $1.3 million.
The Cook Political Report changed its assessment of the
race from likely Republican to toss-up after the flap. The
publication’s House editor wrote, “Bachmann’s comments likely
changed the complexion of her reelection race overnight and
helped to turn the race into even more of a referendum on her.”
The NRCC appears to agree, reportedly stopping its ad buys in the
district, though Bachmann does still have a significant amount of
her own campaign funds.
According to an Associated Press
report, Reps. Marilyn Musgrave of Colorado, Tom Feeney of
Florida, and Joe Knollenberg of Michigan have all been left to
fend for themselves as well. In none of these cases does the
decision seem to have been based on the party’s confidence that
the incumbents no longer needed help.
Social conservative leaders are particularly
displeased to see Musgrave and Bachmann defunded. “The left
is attacking both of these outstanding women because they are
true conservatives,” Tony Perkins of the Family Research Council
wrote in a letter to NRCC chairman Tom Cole. “They vote pro-life
and pro-family.”
More revealing is where the House Republicans are going to spend
their campaign money. The Washington Post reported that
the NRCC is concentrating on twelve districts. Only two of them
are currently represented by a Democrat. Seven of them gave
George W. Bush at least 55 percent of the vote in 2004. Indiana’s
Third Congressional District, where the GOP is defending
incumbent Republican Mark Souder, went 68 percent for Bush four
years ago.
The news for House Republicans isn’t all bad, however. Democratic
Congressman Tim Mahoney of Florida is reeling as his wife
leaves him for living down the standard for personal morality
set by his GOP predecessor, the disgraced Mark Foley. Before the
sex scandals broke, even polls taken by Mahoney’s Republican
challenger showed the Democrat ahead. Now he is
trailing by 26 points, winning just 29 percent of the vote.
Democratic Congressman John Murtha, a trusted lieutenant of House
Speaker Nancy Pelosi, is also in trouble after remarks suggesting
his West Pennsylvania constituents might be racists. One poll
found Murtha just
four points ahead of his Republican challenger, Iraq war
veteran William Russell. The same survey found that 54 percent of
voters thought it was time someone else represented them in
Congress. Only 35 percent said Murtha should be re-elected.
Another Keystone State Democrat is also at risk of being booted
from office. Twelve-term Congressman Paul Kanjorski is trailing
Republican Hazelton Mayor Lou Barletta. Although the
latest polling shows Kanjorski cutting Barletta’s lead in
half, it is never a good sign for an incumbent to be winning just
35 percent of the vote.
But Republicans didn’t enter this election cycle facing the same
structural disadvantages in the House as they do in the Senate.
The Democrats picked much of the low-hanging fruit in 2006. For
every Chris Shays Republican left representing a blue district,
there is a Brad Ellsworth or Heath Shuler Democrat in a red one.
About a third of GOP losses two years ago occurred in Republican
districts where the Republican lost due to scandal. With cleaner
candidates, most if not all of these seats could have been won
back.
House Republicans have also occasionally flirted with winning
issues. They are mostly responsible for the “Drill, baby, drill!”
chants on the campaign trail. They (at least initially) stood up
to their own president and their Senate counterparts on such
unpopular legislation as the immigration amnesty and the bailout.
Yet they have never seemed interested in putting together a
coherent national message, preferring to outsource that job to
presidential nominee John McCain. Neither has the House GOP found
it easy to recruit top-flight candidates or raise money in this
political climate. The need to play defense in so many places
erased what might have been.
The Democrats’ potential for major gains in the Senate is well
documented.
Now Pelosi’s party seems poised to bring down the House as well.
