Streetcar Line
Picking the Lock in the Keystone State
Pennsylvania’s promise for McCain.
There was a good reason why John McCain spent an entire day in Pennsylvania on Tuesday, speaking at three different rallies: because he can win the state and, with it, the presidency.
If I were McCain, I would order my campaign to put together TV and radio ads featuring just three items: Barack Obama’s infamous jab about workers “clinging” to religion and guns out of bitterness, Democratic U.S. Rep. John Murtha’s statement calling western Pennsylvanians racists while speaking in favor of Obama, and Murtha’s garbled apology on the race statement in which he compounded the insult by saying: “What I mean is there’s still folks that have a problem voting for someone because they are black,” and that “This whole area, years ago, was really redneck.”
“What Jack Murtha said in the past couple of days has helped [McCain] immeasurably,” Pennsylvania’s former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum told me on Tuesday.
I would run those 30-second ads back to back, every time, with another ad in which McCain calls for “bringing manufacturing jobs back home to Pennsylvania” by cutting corporate income taxes that are “sending all of our jobs offshore.”
“In Ireland, they cut their corporate rate to 12.5% and started adding so many jobs they call Ireland the Celtic Tiger,” he could say. “Our rate of 35% is three times that; why don’t we cut it, bring home those jobs, and make our economy roar like Nittany Lions?”
I would then schedule even more McCain campaign appearances in the western part of the state, alongside former Steeler great and gubernatorial candidate Lynn Swann and any of a number of other Pennsylvania heroes, whoever would do it — perhaps Arnold Palmer. McCain should draw the contrasts with Obama as strongly as possible on being tough against terrorists, on support for the Second Amendment, for a sensible position against partial birth abortion as opposed to Obama’s horrendous stance against the Born Alive Infants Protection Act, and against higher taxes of the sort Obama would impose on Joe the Plumber.
McCain should then go east and campaign in the Philadelphia suburbs with Arlen Specter, doing anything and everything Specter advises him to do. (I would think a nice mention of Sam Alito and of the “reasonableness” of the Gang of 14 as opposed to Obama’s obstructionist on judges would help somewhere in the state, perhaps in the northeast, as well.) And Tom Ridge should be with him everywhere he goes.
Finally, the McCain camp should record robo-calls, to use anywhere in the state that is not in the congressional district of Paul Kanjorski, that feature the voice of Kanjorski challenger and Hazleton Mayor Lou Barletta urging a vote for McCain based on his record on taxes and national defense — and use the calls on Election Day only, as a get-out-the-vote mechanism. Barletta is a hero in almost every small town in the state for his efforts to force employers and landlords to stop catering to illegal immigrants.
The idea is that McCain has a chance to combine the winning formulas of Santorum and of Specter: Using conservative cultural issues in the rural areas, like Santorum did, along with some good last-minute efforts to have conservative Catholics and Evangelicals “go viral” with a massive get-out-the-vote effort; and using his moderate credentials (peacemaker on judges, supporter of clean coal as opposed to the Obama-Biden slams at coal, crusader against corruption, and the guy who tried to pass legislation long in advance to rein in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) to attract the state’s eastern moderates who have kept Specter in office all these years.
The Democratic gaffes on God, guns, race, and coal, along with the state’s broad swath of more culturally conservative and pro-defense defense voters, along with some clever campaigning, can make Pennsylvania more winnable by McCain than any other 2000 and 2004 “blue” state with the possible exception of New Hampshire. Those factors together may even make McCain stronger in Pennsylvania than he is in 2004 blue states such as New Mexico and Iowa.
If McCain somehow picks up Pennsylvania, his campaign all of a sudden becomes far, far easier. The arithmetic looks like this: President Bush won 286 electoral votes. It takes 270 to win. McCain appears likely to lose Bush states Iowa (7) and New Mexico (5), and could lose Nevada (5) as well. That brings him down to a 269-269 tie, which would likely mean an eventual loss in the House of Representatives. But if McCain wins the Keystone State, with its 21 electoral votes, he can lose those three states plus, say, Missouri (11) and Colorado (9), and still win. If he wins Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, he can lose Virginia (13) and Missouri (while still holding Colorado) and still emerge victorious. Or he could lose New Hampshire but win Nevada, and he would even have an elector to spare.
Granted, there is no way for the Arizonan to win Pennsylvania if he loses nationally by more than about four points. But if he pulls within three points nationally, he might just snatch Pennsylvania even if he falls short in some of the other states where Bush triumphed.
Way back in the spring, my colleague at the Washington Examiner, West Virginia native Chris Stirewalt, accurately predicted an Appalachian backlash in the Democratic primaries in favor of Hillary Clinton over Obama. Guns and God are important in the hills of West Virginia, southeastern Ohio, eastern Kentucky, and western Pennsylvania. And rural Pennsylvanians, I am reliably told, are particularly turned off by the airs of the coastal, liberal elites, the folks like Obama who went to Columbia and Harvard and then opine about how “bitter” the poor hillbillies are. McCain can tap into those Appalachian values, and do it honorably, and snatch Pennsylvania right out from under Obama’s snooty nose.
About the Author
Quin Hillyer is a senior editor of The American Spectator and a senior fellow at the Center for Individual Freedom. Follow him on Twitter @QuinHillyer.
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Haha| 10.23.08 @ 9:04AM
You really think that people will vote for Obama because of what Murtha said? Sure, pretend all you want. PA is staying blue, sorry.
J David| 10.23.08 @ 9:58AM
Even if you were right on every point, and I think you are on most (except any that smack of using positive reference to Juan's "bi-partisanship" surrender-monkey allegiance to commie-lib Dems) points, Juan is now, as he has been, the enemy of conservatives. You, and probably I as well, could have beaten Obama by the simple iteration of conservative principles. Reagan won because he boiled EVERYTHING he stood for down to about three principles: Less gov't interference, stronger military, lower taxes. Any one, who really means it, could do that, BUT JUAN AMNESTY MCVAIN doesn't stand for conservatism. He can't speak to the people because he IS a big gov't elitist who feels entitled to the office, just like all 49 other senators. But McCain may be able to use a REAL conservative, Palin, and lots of face-time for both of them and pull it off because the other Soros-owned candidate is just so incredibly filthy as to boggle the mind of anyone not hypnotized by him.
Laird Landrieu| 10.23.08 @ 10:07AM
McCain will no more of a chance of winning PA than the author of this article, Mr. Hillyer, has of getting a job with a real paper.
Reg Lilly| 10.23.08 @ 10:13AM
Ok, get some losers together -- Santorum/Swan and focus on wedge social issues a la Rove. Mr. Hillyer is advocating rearranging the deck chairs as the Titanic sinks. If Republican don't see that history and the electorate has left Rove-politics behind, do some soul searching and come up with a post-Reagan/Bush social and economic philosophy, then they'll spend more than 40 years in the wilderness.
Terry| 10.23.08 @ 10:20AM
Laugh Out Loud.
John Binkman| 10.23.08 @ 10:25AM
"the winning formula of Santorum" ?? Go ahead McSame - follow that tried and true formula !! On the bright side, at least there will be a position waiting for you on Fox News after you lose the election.
Phillip| 10.23.08 @ 10:27AM
Seriously? Picking up a 13% edged blue state that has only gone republican for Reagan on the fact that Carter/Mondale are boring as hell? The fact alone that Barack only needs to pickup 30% of the Hillary voters from the primary isn't reason enough to give up on Pa. McCain pins his hopes on it? This man is seriously diluted.
john| 10.23.08 @ 10:28AM
Rick Santorum is the objective source for PA. Would that be the Rick Santorum that lost his senate seat in a landslide about two years ago. Murtha's comments might hurt him a bit but I even doubt that knowing the hold John has on his district. And it's no secret there are parts of western PA that would have fitted better in the confederacy than the Union. However, western PA was always going to be won narrowly by McCain, I'm even doubtful he'll manage that now but this election is won or lost in eastern PA and that's going Obama in a landslide. The current McCain fantasy that PA is winnable is that, a fantasy. Frankly I think it's time McCain accepted the inevitable and started to do the decent thing as Dole did and start campaigning for the down ticket Republicans. It's going to be ugly but at least he might save a few of the more exposed senators and reps. I doubt he's going to do it because both he and Palin seem to believe their own propaganda. McCain and Palin have been one of the most disastrous Republican tickets in my memory, these guys are in Mondale and Humphrey territory.
L Dave| 10.23.08 @ 10:29AM
Just like the disastrous Carter administration was an overreaction to Watergate, we are at risk of voters ushering in a "new" era of very old school socialism in response to the credit market crisis. I pray that the good people of Pennsylvania decline to throw the baby out with the bath water and vote for McCain on Election Day.
Ned| 10.23.08 @ 10:36AM
"This whole area, years ago, was really redneck."
This just hit me this morning after reading the above. What is the opposite of a redneck? Whiteneck, Blueneck, Paleneck, Neckless, Tannedneck, or maybe Knotneck.
Scott| 10.23.08 @ 11:09AM
Wonderful how all the seminar Democrat posters found your column, Quin. You must have picked up a link off Democrat Underground.
michael| 10.23.08 @ 11:30AM
I doubt that McCain could win PA even if he followed this roadmap. And even if he did, it would not be enough to swing the election.
mike| 10.23.08 @ 11:38AM
McCain proved he has lost his ability to make sound judgement calls by his choice of Sarah Palin as his running mate. She doesn't even know what the duties of the VP are! Well at least she can see Russia from her house. Maybe during the next 4 yrs she can look at it for a good long time and gain some more foriegn policy expertise. Given that McCain is appearing more and more confused and disoriented at his rallies, maybe it's a good thing that Sarah is dragging him down. I shudder to think of McCain trying to make commander in chief decisions when he hasn't had enough sleep.
But the real reason he won't win is because too many people who make less than $250,000 a year are beggining to realize that if they vote for John McCain it's just like a chicken voting for Colonel Sanders.
J David| 10.23.08 @ 11:51AM
Wow, Quin! You must be good 'cause you are real "troll bait", here and at the Examiner. That is something to be proud of, as you should be judged by their enemies(or lack of them) as well as their friends.
J David| 10.23.08 @ 11:52AM
...One should be judged by who his enemies are, as well as who his friends are...
J.Havenfarm| 10.23.08 @ 12:02PM
Wow. With heavyweights like J. David telling us how there are 50 members of the Senate, and Phillip having declared McCain "diluted," I think that settles it. I just have a four word response: "We give up!"
Anthony| 10.23.08 @ 12:04PM
Hey Quin, not to bring up a sore subject, but isn't that fellow in the picture to the left of Gov. Palin your hero, the great Arlen Specter? He looks a bit underwhelmed and bored, as is always the case with Specter, when it's not about him. So what ever happened to all those judges he was going to get the despicable Harry Reid to appoint? Oh, never mind. And to all the leftist nutroots posting on this site, are you all that stupid to think that Murtha wasn't refering to you as well? Do you morons really think you have some sort of dispensation from Murtha and his ilk? I'm glad you think Murtha's comments are a great joke, aimed at conservatives, that will not come back to bite him on his fat ass, however, as history has shown repetedly, you all won't be laughing for long. The biggest yuks will be at your expense. Have a nice day!!
Tim| 10.23.08 @ 1:02PM
Mike,
We get it, you don't have to leave the same general derogitory McCain comments on every article on the website.
Keith| 10.23.08 @ 1:45PM
Honestly, McCain's chances are only good if Obama spends the last week campaigning without any pants.
JTS| 10.23.08 @ 1:50PM
Even if McCain wins the real-America best-Americans parts of PA, it's not enough. The realer-America votes, and in greater numbers.
AMF!
DavidJ| 10.23.08 @ 1:51PM
Quin: "If I were McCain, I would order my campaign to put together TV and radio ads featuring just three items..."
Too bad none of these "items" have anything to do with those record job loss numbers, the slumped economy or how we will get affordable healthcare for the middle class.
Should Republicans really wonder why they are losing losing so many states?
dik taby| 10.23.08 @ 1:59PM
I'm a lifetime Pennsylvanian. We have a lot of rednecks here, just like everywhere, but we call them "hoofties." Many of them will vote for Obama and he will win regardless of any washed-up old Rove tactics.
Millington| 10.23.08 @ 2:03PM
Attack, attack - won't work since you and Senator McCain are offering no coherent fiscal program, no realistic approach to health care, no viable way out of Iraq and no return to the American quality of basic decency.
awaler| 10.23.08 @ 2:17PM
Mr. Hillya, seems you forgot one piece of advice - maybe it is to obvious.
Zillions of Pennsylvanians are longing to see Sarahs fashion show.
Ryan| 10.23.08 @ 2:34PM
As Philly goes, so goes Pennsylvania. Bush learned this in 2004. With the terrible GOP rating in the Philly burbs + black turnout expected to be around 90%, Obama will take PA by a larger margin than Kerry.
Drew| 10.23.08 @ 2:38PM
We, the citizens of the great state of Pennsylvania, will proudly send a clear and loud message to John McCain & Sarah Palin on November 4: ENOUGH! NO!
The ticket that has no new ideas for this country will be defeated.
Also, Rick Santorum? The man has no credibility anymore. Why do you interview him?
McCain doesn't deserve to win this campaign based on his lack of new ideas, his disgusting campaign, and his choice of a ridiculous running mate.
Obama chose the best running mate in the country, and has the ideas, intelligence, and courage to take on the problems facing this county that were caused by the Republican Party.
We'll show McCain/Palin on November 4 that Pennysylvania wants nothing to do with their disgusting campaign.
Ned| 10.23.08 @ 2:48PM
Drew says,
"Obama chose the best running mate in the country, and has the ideas, intelligence, and courage to take on the problems facing this county that were caused by the Republican Party. "
I agree, but does Senator Obama have the intelligence and courage to take on the much larger amount of problems facing this country that are caused by the Democrat Party.
Marty J| 10.23.08 @ 2:58PM
Even if you are correct about how to win Pennsylvania, what good does that do? Your strategy assumes a full-time full-court press to win this one state. Meanwhile the electoral college slips away, and many down-ticket Republicans (Senate and Congress candidates) who could have used the help, also go down.
This plan simply dooms the party for years to come.
Chaz| 10.23.08 @ 3:14PM
Western Pennsylvanians ARE (for the most part) racist and red-necked.
toby| 10.23.08 @ 3:15PM
You want to use Rick Santorum's strategy? If Santorum is such a winner, then why did he lost his Senate seat in 2006?
McCain might gain a few points with this strategy, but Obama can outspend him and counteract the propaganda ... its one of the reasons Joe Biden was his VP pick.
Mark| 10.23.08 @ 3:24PM
I don't think this would work. The things you're talking about would appeal to his Republican base, but the Independents (who are going more and more towards Obama) won't care that much. The reason McCain could have won was because he appealed more to Independants, but it seems his campaign has lost sight of that.
AVR| 10.23.08 @ 3:27PM
If he puts that much effort into PA, he'll be conceding in too may states. They are already pulling out of Colorado, and New Hampshire. He'll have to concede Indiana, South Florida, and NC, to have the time for your strategy
isla989| 10.23.08 @ 3:36PM
This is basically a slash and burn ploy - Eastern PA is solidly blue, and McCain unfortunately burnt his bridges when he started his right wing kook campaign - Santorum was a blip on the screen, and bringing him up along with Swann, another loser hardly does much - the fact that McCain is chasing votes in PA this close to Election Day is as much reason to raise the white flag as the fact that GOP is dumping some of it's most strongly held Congressional district races to cut big losses in the House of Rep.
Marc| 10.23.08 @ 3:44PM
McCain has the look and feel of Dole in 96. He simply can't find the outrage for Ayers with PA voters. They are too busy trying to make a living, which has suddenly more difficult.
John| 10.23.08 @ 3:47PM
If Tim Russert were still with us on election night he might be holding a small blackboard that said Virginia-Virginia-Virginia, or Palin-Palin-Palin.
Simcha| 10.23.08 @ 3:47PM
I feel obliged to parse your math a little bit. Lets assume that Obama takes the northeast (w/o NH), the western seacoast, and the great lakes states. Mccain takes the bible belt and the great plains (w/o CO & NM), and ID and AZ also go to mccain. So this leaves 12 states and an electoral count of Obama 227 Mccain 163. Obama looks set to win IA and NM and Mccain looks set to win IN. That leaves us with CO, NV, MO, FL,NC,VA,OH and to humor you PA and NH. Assuming the polls for CO are accurate, it will likely go to Obama as should VA and for the sake of debate PA and NH go to Mccain. The count becomes 261-199. The remaining states are NV FL MO NC and OH. So basically it comes down to those states of which Mccain still needs to win 4/5 of and on top of that he needs the unlikely wins in PA and NH. If he loses either the two smaller states or any one larger state he loses the election. I would also point out that Obama has a commanding lead in the polls in both PA and NH. It seems that your math rests entirely on ignoring NC, FL, and most importantly OH. You have completely ignored OH. If Obama takes OH and VA he would be 3 votes shy of 270 w/o any sw states. so even w/o PA Mccain still has big problems.
TruthHurts| 10.23.08 @ 4:05PM
Here's the problems with this article: 1. The state's population growth has occured mainly in the Southeastern suburbs ad exurbs of Philly...2. Independents and Moderates in PA are scared too death of Palin (for reference, note Rick Santorum's sudden ..crash)....3. Murtha's comments about his district hurt Murtha in his district. Most of PA would love to see Murtha lose and Obama win....4. Now pay attention here. The "bitter" comment took place over 6 months ago. Since that time, we've seen our collective net worth plummet across the board. Right now, there are a TON of "bitter voters", with-and-without guns......5. It's amazing to see someone construct a winning strategy based on demographics as they existed in 2004...The author skips mention of the fact that there are now 1 MIL MORE DEMOCRATE THAN REPUBLICANS IN PA.....6. Arlen Specter is embraced as part of a "strategy" by the American Spectator??....Specter, the President of the RHINO club is now NEEDED by the Conservatives?...Is THIS what the Republican's idea of holding on to power has come to?...
b s art| 10.23.08 @ 4:06PM
keep saying that over & over to yourself. you will convince yourself that it's true...
Dave J| 10.23.08 @ 4:12PM
Something to understand is that there are plenty of unthinking Obamanationists who have nothing better to do than invade every blogsite to overwhelm any opposing viewpoint with their empty blather. That attempt to silence the competition is a trademark Obamanation approach to electoral victory since his start in the Illinois legislature until the current purchase of the presidency. The large variation in the polls, from a 1% lead up to 12%, is McCain's last great hope of pulling the rabbit out of the bag. McCain supporters should not allow the apparently negative polls to dissuade them from continued efforts towards victory. Even Pennsylvania may be winnable. We will know when the votes are counted.
GW| 10.23.08 @ 4:45PM
Even if McCain miraculously took PA, he would still have to take FL, MO, NC, NV, and OH to win. Obama leads in all of them and is ready to outspend McCain 3 to 1.
Andy in Colorado| 10.23.08 @ 4:51PM
Obama's on internal polls are showing PA closer than most think. McCain has a chance if enough people wake up to realize "OMG, we are electing the most inexperienced POTUS ever in a critical time in our history. One who is all-rhetoric and what little record he has doesn't match it. He will have no checks to control his lust to give to govt programs that we know don't really help poor and burden the rest of us OMG, we will be a socialist nation and never recover as majority . What we love about this nation will never exist again.
bill| 10.23.08 @ 4:55PM
Stretching it a bit aren't we? There is very little chance that McCain could win pa. even if everything broke right for him.The time, money and effort that it would take to do so would leave him extremely vulnerable in ahost of other formerly Red states.Just face it,the Dems are going to clean your clock this year.
Doreen| 10.23.08 @ 5:01PM
Right on Pennsylvania! Vote for McCain Palin. Obama and Murtha only know how to insult you good people. Teach them both a lesson on election day. Moreover, as Joe Biden and Hillary said, Obama is not ready to be President. Moreover, Biden also said he would be honored to be on the same ticket with McCain.
Dave B| 10.23.08 @ 5:04PM
Ya, sure, go ahead and follow Santorum's advice--he only lost by double digits. Goes to prove that that the Conservative right is populated primarily by morons. Please, morons, do not be offended.
Jeff| 10.23.08 @ 5:06PM
Is this Bill O'reilly or Karl Rove writing this?
Paul | 10.23.08 @ 5:13PM
Be a good loser - lose with dignity. Now is not the time to show your worst.
Jahndoh| 10.23.08 @ 5:25PM
""What we love about this nation will never exist again. ""
I think you plagiarized this from a democrat 4 years ago.
We should all be weeping with what has happened to this great country in the last 8 years. Hoping that the voters in the state of PA haven't noticed this travesty is far greater an insult than calling them rednecks.
Yes! We Can.
Vote Hope, vote change....just VOTE!
OCPatriot| 10.23.08 @ 5:39PM
Dear Quin:
Perhaps you can explain how McCain can win, given these Pennsylvania figures from the major polling companies:
Date
Sample
MoE
Obama (D) McCain (R) Spread RCP Average
10/16 - 10/22 51.5 to 40.8
Obama +10.7
These polls include: SurveyUSA, Morning Call,
Quinnipiac, National Journal/FD, Susquehanna,
SurveyUSA, Big10 Battleground
Keith| 10.23.08 @ 10:27PM
Objective point by point. . .
Three suggested items represent 1) negative 2) negative 3) negative -- only the independents remain to decide, and they will not respond well to more negative ads.
Don't take advice or comments from Santorum who seems like he didn't learn Pennsylvanians don't like his embracement of the far religious right and the embracement of remnants of the old Klan.
McCain would bring jobs back??? He's the biggest free trader in the Senate.
Corporate tax rates -- after deductions and loopholes, US Corp tax rate is one of the lowest in the world. Jobs going off-shore has more to do with lower labor costs and the corps pickup a labor advantage by operating overseas.
Campaign with Swann??? The kiss of death from a guy who didn't understand he had to pay taxes.
Joe the Plumber? Please! The facts of Joe's case show he works without a license, his licensed supervisor isn't licensed in all the townships where they'd plumbed, he's not in any financial situation to be buying any business, he has a tax lien against him, he has suffered under the Bush tax structure, and he is now suffering because he asked a disingenuous question to tie up Obama.
The Phila suburbs are populated with college/university communities where Obama support is stronger than expected, and the county seats are democratic voting areas.
Campaign with Ridge??? Mr. "Code Orange" is a strong reminder of Bush. Keep former Bushies as far away as possible.
Campaign with Specter??? After Bush tried to end Specter's career with pressure which Specter survived, I doubt if Specter wants to be anywhere near McCain. Specter could help McCain, but McCain can't help Specter. Specter won't do more than smile for McCain.
Robocalls??? Negative, negative, negative -- we've had enough of smear, bash, distort.
Hazelton Mayor Barletta? He's not a positive figure. He's a bigot. He's only a hero to other bigots. McCain already has the bigot vote.
"Go viral" -- "Use conservative cultural issues to gain moderate voters." Haphazardly written article. The author doesn't realize he contradicted himself.
"God, guns, race, coal, clever campaigning. . . ." Not a voting issues of any importance here. That's why McCain is losing. He doesn't talk about the issues.
CoachJ55| 10.23.08 @ 11:22PM
Murtha in dead heat with Russell.
He was ahead by 15% days b4 he talked about us redneck racist.
Murtha ran unopposed in 2004.
Obama slipping in PA polls, trust me by Monday, Obama will be in panic mode in PA, running millions of ads.
But will it work, we will see.
Santorum lost because of public backlash to Foley scandel, we got the empty Dem suit, who will loose in 2010,
I guarentee it.
coachJ55| 10.23.08 @ 11:27PM
I vote change, back to the great Jimmy Carter days.
The last time a Dem change agent got elected.
Unemployment 9%
Home mortgage interest rates 21%
Inflation 12%
With Obama the newest Jimmy Carter change agent, oh happy days are here again...
Owen| 10.23.08 @ 11:27PM
"Barack is going to be tested in the first six months of his presidency...He'll need your help...not financially...it won't be apparent that he made the right decision..."
All I can think about is the robot on Lost in Space...."WARNING! WARNING! BARACK WILL BE TESTED! WARNING!
Jack| 10.24.08 @ 2:01AM
I only made it through about half of this article before I started laughing uncontrollably at the "winning strategy of Santorum" w/r/t small-town values voters. All Mccain has to do is pull back a 12 point lead in Penn. in as many days!
Jamie | 10.24.08 @ 7:23PM
This is a brilliant article and strategy. I think the road to the white house runs through Pennsylvania, and I think it's McCain's for the taking.
EyeDoc | 10.26.08 @ 9:03PM
Boy the Obama trolls are really out in force. The reality is that if Obama is ahead at all in PA, then it's maybe by a point or two, and that was last week before the national polls tightened up further and Murtha started getting all this attention for calling western PA residents racists.
John Kerry barely won PA, and Kerry had better appeal among rural white voters than Obama does. Unless Obama can carry Philadelphia by much higher numbers than Kerry did Obama will probably lose the state, and with it the election. Obama's internal polls as well as McCain's internal polls tell a far different story than the rigged polls are showing, and Obama is justifiably very worried about Pennsylvania. If he loses the ball game is over.
OCPatriot| 10.27.08 @ 12:54AM
As of today it looks as if Obama has a healthy lead and Pennsylvania is considered "solid" for him:
Pennsylvania (21) 51.7 Obama 40.5McCain
Obama +11.2 Solid
This is based on polls by Morning Call, SurveyUSA, Big10 Battleground, Quinnipiac,
National Journal/FD, Susquehanna.
Draw your own conclusions.
Karl Marx| 10.27.08 @ 11:39AM
Unfortunately, I agree that McCain will in the end win the key stone state.
With that win the misguided utopian dream of Obama's "New" socialism, destruction of free speech and personal gun ownership will be destroyed.
What I fear most is that now that the truth has come out about the agendas of Obama, Acorn, Bill Ayers and his 3200 college professor supporters
The radical right will purge the US of all marxist in the coming years.
So thank You Obama, for exposing your team.
Amy| 10.31.08 @ 10:10AM
McCain will not win this election. He would have to win every single swing state and even take a few blue states already clearly voting Democrat away from Obama.
Mark Jones| 11.4.08 @ 10:18AM
McCain can win! There will be long lineups for voting all day. McCain supporters can bring their laptops and show the people waiting to vote all the choice and key video info about Obama.
This information has been hidden and supressed by the mainstream media. We can reveal it, since the lineups are the perfect place to chat with neighbor Americans and share our fears about putting this radical, left of Mao racist (ie anti-white) agitator="organizer"
Have a good chat about what Cuba looks like. This is the fruit of socialist programs. People are hungry, poor, lacking dignity and without any hope. Success is punished and ultimately stomped out.
This is our great chance to do a voting SURGE FOR MCCAIN! LET'S GET ON WITH IT.
NO. I NEVER GIVE UP.
I DON'T WANT TO SAY GOODBYE TO FREEDOM AND TRADE IT FOR TOTALITARIANISM FOR "CHANGE."
HECK --SOUNDS COOL --ANY KIND OF CHANGE IS GOOD. YEP. I'LL GET INTO THE CAR WITH A NICE FRIEND I JUST MET TWO MINUTES AGO --AN OBAMA. IF HE ATTACKS ME, GAGS ME, RAPES ME AND MURDERS ME --WELL, HECK. I GOT TO VOTE FOR WHAT I THOUGHT I WANTED!
g| 11.21.08 @ 6:57PM
fds