The American Spectator

The Nation's Pulse

The Other Shoe Drops

By Eric Peters on 10.15.08 @ 6:06AM

(Page 2 of 2)

Maybe worse than that, though, is it makes it tougher for the people who might actually want to drive home a new Chrysler to do so. Without the option of leasing, it's either cash -- or finance the whole enchilada. In precarious economic times, fewer and fewer people are willing to step up and assume a $60k debt load -- especially when it is they (and not a lease company) who will be left holding the bag three years down the road, when that $60k SUV is worth a third of that.

Or less.

GM AND FORD are looking green around the gills, too. While they're not as terminal as Chrysler (yet) neither can they afford to absorb another multi-multi-million (and very possibly, billion dollar) loss. Nor, probably, can they sustain a 20-30 percent sales downturn caused by people reluctant (or simply unable) to buy a new vehicle.

Just like the housing debacle, it's going to take years to clear the bad paper from the system.

The question is, will America's Big Three -- who are uniquely vulnerable because they placed virtually all their eggs in the Gigantosaurus SUV/pick-up basket -- be able to weather the coming body blows?

My bet is Chrysler's a goner. Cerberus -- the private equity company that owns the almost-corpse -- is not likely to bleed itself white over a lost cause when it can just cut the whole mess loose and move on.

GM and Ford are publicly traded companies so different rules apply. But if you own stock, the future does not look bright ahead. Both of them realized -- probably too late -- that it was time to stop selling Expeditions and Escalades. Neither has a 40 mpg small car available for sale, even now. This is disastrous. GM's much anticipated Volt hybrid-electric car doesn't get here for another year. Ford's best small cars are European-only.

Things are ugly. But they may be about to get much uglier.

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