Never in history has the world been as economically linked as it
is today. “Linked,” in fact, may be too weak a term to convey the
nature of the connections. “Wired” seems a more apt metaphor, for
it takes into account the near-instantaneous connections and
feedback loops between the constituent elements.
As with electric currents in a circuit, or, better yet, a lab
mouse keyed up on the latest sugar substitute and dropped in a
maze, fear of impending calamity darts madly through the entire
system, plunging stock markets ever downward from New York to
Moscow, London to Rio de Janeiro, Tokyo to Paris — even, most
ominously, after the $700 billion bailout passed the Senate and
the House.
For a very good reason the metaphorical rodent of the laboratory
scrambles helter-skelter: the American economy teeters and groans
amid shifting sands of evaporated credit pools; runaway war
expenses charged to an ever-expanding tab; ballooning health
care, fuel, and food costs; absurdly risky lending decisions here
and abroad; and bad borrowing decisions (even much-venerated Joe
Six-Pack need only consider the maxed-out credit cards and too
pricey house to realize his own halo shows signs of tarnish).
What happens next?
If confidence in the world and American economies, increasingly
all but one and the same, registers a modest but real uptick
among investors, consumers, and producers, coupled with a
deepening of the available credit pool, we should see a leveling
out and a space emerge for the necessary sorting, reforming, and
rebuilding.
Trouble is, there are no tried-and-true models available to show
how all this will play itself out, no platinum-plated ideological
road maps for us to follow diligently, considering the
unprecedented globalization of financial markets and the extent
to which debt has fueled the Clinton-Bush economy. Unlike
television, history never repeats itself. Variables of people,
resources, climate, and ideologies, among others, never align
exactly the same way twice. Mark Twain put it best: history never
repeats; it rhymes. The past can provide guidance on themes and
trends, never the details, and we know where, as the old saying
has it, resides the devil.
How bad will things get?
If, on top of other mounting economic challenges and problems,
ever-growing numbers of employers find themselves unable to meet
payroll, we will know bad times have come. If bad times come and
spread across the land, if unpaid truckers no longer crisscross
the highways to deliver foodstuffs to our shelves, if, seeing an
opening in our weakened state, an adversary (China, Russia, al
Qaeda) slips a knife into our side and gives it a twist, I fear
for the future of the republic. The United States — need I say
it? — is neither by its very nature, nor by the workings of
Providence, somehow impervious to the slings and arrows of
history.
Come a meltdown, sections of the country may swing to
authoritarian extremes of right and left while others devolve
into no-man’s lands of violence and chaos, where only government
checks not worth the paper they are printed upon and government
troops not sure as to why they risk their lives make sporadic
forays. Our political-social life may not reach such depths. I
suspect (I hope) it won’t. But the possibility of a terrible
sifting is very real.
I hope few have deluded themselves into thinking revolution
ushering in utopia, or Jesus heralding the new age, will result
because we royally screw up America. Deep-sixing the republic’s
future is unlikely to expedite either.
Can prudence, principle, and pragmatism — not hate, vengeance,
and fanaticism — guide us? Entombing ourselves in ideologically
pristine blankies will not stop the advancing cold. The years
ahead will necessitate capable leaders, leaders to ignite the
dying embers of hope and to sound the call for unity, leaders who
appeal to our better angels, not our demons of division and
despair that churn and whirl in the darkness, ever waiting the
moment of release.
