Having made several attempts, on this site, to make sense of
this interminable, albeit exciting, election, I have been chastened
by events throughout its unpredictable twists and turns. Thirty
days out from the election, with the end game now commencing, I am
profoundly uncertain as to its ultimate outcome.
RealClearPolitics.com puts Senator Obama up by 5.9 percent, an
averaging of all polling to date. It also has him beating McCain in
Virginia, on average, by 2.4 percent. From where I sit in Fairfax
County, Virginia, within the orbit of Washington, D.C., Obama is
likely to follow the pattern of other statewide Democratic
candidates who have rolled up double-digit numbers in this part of
what was once considered a safe Red State.
As a native of St. Louis, I note that the Arizona Senator is
still holding onto a narrow lead in Missouri, 1.7 percent, which
has voted for the winning presidential candidate in every election
of the post-war era except for 1956. Of course, Virginia, with its
growing and diverse population, may be a better indicator than the
Show Me State. But I really don’t know.
Clearly, the near meltdown of the nation’s finances in the last
two weeks has been a “game changer,” to use the cliche now in
vogue. And it is has not changed in favor of Senator McCain and the
Republicans.
Last weekend I recall telling my daughter, who is working at a
ranch outside of Cody, Wyoming, to move at least some of her
deposits from Wachovia into another local bank. While I assumed
that federal deposit insurance would eventually come through, I did
not want her to be shut out of her cash if the dismemberment of the
bank dragged on for months or even years. No one in our family has
had a conversation like that since, what, the 1930s?
Although the Obama campaign is sitting pretty for now, thirty
days is certainly an eternity in a national political campaign.
Just recall the past thirty, sixty or ninety days. Governor Palin
has only been around for five or six weeks. The stock market lost
between 9 and 10 percent last week. Remember Senator Clinton’s
rally late in the primary campaign? Moreover, the McCain campaign
is about to “unleash hell,” to use a phrase coined by Peggy Noonan
on Meet the Press yesterday. Well, politics ain’t bean
bag, as Mr. Dooley reminded us.
Still, the Obama campaign is the model of calm, cool, relentless
organizational perfection, registering voters, raising money and
organizing volunteers on line and emulating U.S. Grant’s harassment
of Lee in forcing the McCain campaign to over-extend its supply
lines, divide its forces, or begin triage sooner than it would
like. McCain’s recent decision to abandon the field in Michigan was
quite a blow given previous high hopes among Republicans.
This general election race pits maybe the weakest of the
Democratic candidates against the strongest Republican candidate.
Hillary Clinton would probably be winning handily right now given
the economic morass, two wars, and an unpopular Republican
incumbent in the White House. John McCain’s reputation as a
maverick allows him to distance himself from the Bush
administration and flourish in a hostile political environment that
would have been fatal to the other contenders in the GOP primary.
Nevertheless, McCain’s relative strengths are presently
overshadowed by the present economic crisis.
The countervailing factors threatening Obama’s recent rise in
the polls are the character issue which the McCain campaign is
already raising and the dark undertow of any potential “Bradley
Effect” in which race may still impact the final vote in
November.
Finally, the Catholic vote, often referred to as the “jump ball”
of American presidential politics, will be crucial to victory,
especially in the Midwest. On social and cultural issues, McCain
has a clear advantage with this block of voters. On the economy,
Obama has the advantage. The issues of war and peace cut both
ways.
This is still an election too close to call.
