What a difference a week can make. Seven days ago, Democrats
were in a state of political panic
after Sarah Palin's selection as running mate had helped push John
McCain ahead in the polls. Now it may be the Republicans' turn.
Relentless media criticism of Palin seems to have succeeded, at
least temporarily, in turning Palin from an asset to a debit for
the GOP ticket. Barack Obama's campaign has unleashed a heavy wave
of attack ads. Most of all, daily headlines about the financial
crisis have shaken voters' confidence in the economic status quo,
increasing the appeal of Obama's theme of "Change."
As with the previous panic among Democrats, last week's
Republican panic was driven by slumping poll numbers. McCain had
boomed to a 5-point lead over Obama in the Gallup daily tracking
poll released Sept. 8, and maintained that edge for three consecutive
days.
The Palin pick and the post-convention bounce so enhanced the
Republican Party's image that by Sept. 12, Gallup was reporting that the GOP had narrowed the gap on
the so-called "generic" congressional ballot question -- where
Democrats had enjoyed a 15-point advantage earlier this year -- to
a slender three-point margin.
Even as these polls prompted one reporter to note a "growing sense of doom among Democrats,"
however, the Republican momentum was slipping away. On Wednesday,
Gallup reported Obama had moved slightly ahead, and by
Saturday, Gallup had the Democrat ahead by 6
points, 50-44 percent.
Other polls reported different numbers, but the overall trend
was clear -- McCain, who had led nearly every survey taken Sept.
5-11, trailed in nearly every poll taken thereafter, resulting in a
net 5-point shift toward Obama in the Real Clear Politics average.
WHAT HAPPENED? The timing of the McCain slump (or Obama surge, as
the case may be) makes it difficult to distinguish the causes.
It was on Sept. 10 that ABC began airing the first network
exclusive interview with Palin, with Charlie Gibson professorially
peering over his glasses playing "stump the governor" by asking her
about the Bush doctrine. Afterwards, at least according to a
Research 2000 poll commissioned by the liberal DailyKos site,
Palin's approval numbers took a nosedive, going from 52% positive
to 41% positive in the space of eight days, while her negatives
ratings rose from 35% to 46%.
However, it was during the same time frame that the slow-brewing
financial crisis hit the meltdown stage. The takeover of Fannie Mae
and Freddie Mac was announced Sept. 6. Lehman Brothers stock began
a death spiral Sept. 8. A week later came Black Monday, as stocks
plummeted, Bank of America took over a collapsing Merrill Lynch,
and the insurance giant AIG hit coffin corner.
Meanwhile, the Obama campaign unleashed a series of fierce
attacks, including a TV
ad that debuted Sept. 14 featuring headlines accusing McCain of
"lies" and "deception."
If nothing else, those headlines accurately captured the
overwhelmingly negative coverage the Republican has endured in
recent weeks. As during the primary campaign -- when, as a Media
Research Center analysis found, the major networks provided
Obama's "margin of victory" over Hillary Clinton -- the media are
clearly in the Illinois Democrat's corner.
Despite all the woes afflicting the GOP ticket in recent days,
however, it may be too soon for Republicans to hit the panic
button.
Granted, the dire economic situation could be expected to hurt
Republicans, not only because of the two-term Republican in the
White House, but also because the GOP is closely identified with
big business in the minds of voters. Yet Obama appears poorly
positioned to take advantage of the current crisis.
Obama raked in lots of campaign contributions from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac,
placed disgraced former Fannie Mae CEO Jim Johnson in charge of his
running-mate search committee, and reportedly solicited advice from
another former Fannie Mae CEO, Franklin Raines.
The McCain campaign has already run ads highlighting Obama's connections to Fannie
Mae, and has also emphasized that the Republican candidate had
pushed reforms for the mortgage giants -- reforms that Democrats
blocked. A recent Rasmussen poll showed Obama has no clear advantage on
economic issues, and the Democrat has yet to offer any plan to
resolve the current crisis.
"We're at the point now where voters are looking to see a
specific plan, and Obama's not winning there," one veteran
conservative operative told me yesterday. "Joe Biden didn't help
him any by saying it's 'patriotic' to pay more taxes."
THE MEDIA'S RELENTLESS attacks may have hurt Palin's poll standing,
but more than three weeks after she was announced as McCain's
running mate, the Alaska governor has at least survived, despite
Democratic efforts to "Eagletonize" her. Palin continues to draw huge,
enthusiastic crowds, and she will have a chance to cut
through the media filter in her Oct. 2 debate with
Joe Biden.
Media bias can only carry Obama so far. This Friday, the
Democrat will square off against McCain in the first of their
three debates. At the Obama campaign's insistence, Friday's topic
will be foreign policy, which might end up being a pitch into the
Republican's wheelhouse, giving McCain an opportunity to hammer
Obama for his opposition to the surge in Iraq.
No poll numbers or headlines between now and Friday are as
likely to influence the final outcome of election as much as this
first debate. Obama has avoided debates since his poor showing in
April against Clinton in Philadelphia, and also did poorly in a Sept. 16
forum at California's Saddleback Church.
If Obama doesn't turn in a solid performance Friday, his recent
poll advantage could fade quickly. A week from now, Democrats may
find themselves pushing the panic button again.
topics:
Taxes, Foreign Policy, Barack Obama, Joe Biden, Sarah Palin, Hillary Clinton, Business, Iraq, Alaska
