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"It would indicate a big win in the Electoral College rather than it being a close election in which he needs North Carolina to get him over the line," Taylor said.

At the same time, the close poll numbers have to give McCain pause. The tight race here shows that McCain can't take the state for granted, which he appears to be doing. He's run no ads specific to the state, and his campaign presence is half that of Obama's. He's visited only once since the close of the primary season: a private meeting with Billy and Franklin Graham. That won't cut it.

Obama, for one, doesn't mince words on the importance of the state. "I'm going to need to win North Carolina," he told a crowd of supporters in Raleigh last Tuesday.

McCain needs to recognize what Obama acknowledged months ago: North Carolina has become a battleground.

topics:
Barack Obama, Bill Clinton, Military, NATO, Africa