The American Spectator

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(Page 7 of 12)

p> FEEL THE CHILL br> Re: George H. Wittman's Refreezing the Cold War : /p>

Russia's invasion of Georgia immediately produced thoughts of the old Soviet Union and its grand plan to bury the West. Of course pundits examined where Russia's grand strategy might be taking it. But as the episode unfolds, it is looking more like Russia has made a strategic mistake that will produce a backlash in the U.S., the Balkans and Caucasus, Europe, Japan and parts of Asia.

Looking at Russia's action in a different light produces a different answer however. Suppose the invasion of Georgia is 80% about the oil and gas pipelines running through Georgia from the Caspian to the Mediterranean Sea. If Russia can establish an economic sphere of influence by establishing a monopoly on energy supplies to Europe and Asia, it can dictate prices and the policies of other countries by controlling the on off valves as it has already demonstrated.

Having such an energy monopoly might enable Russia to boost energy income by 25% for 5 to 7 years. In seven years energy income could triple and gross domestic product could double. Russia needs the money to:

p>1) equip the military br> 2) continue their space program br> 3) satisfy pension and health benefits /p>

One is reminded of the Hong Kong spirit when Great Britain ran it. People came knowing that with hard work they could double their money in five years. But Russia is a wholesale economy not a retail economy like Hong Cong and relies on selling its natural resources. Hong Cong has no natural resources other than its port, fish, and the industry of its inhabitants. This new Russian spirit might be called "Show Me The Money!"

p>How else to explain the precarious, even silly, military situation Russia has placed itself in. Russia is virtually guaranteeing a Western military influence in their neighborhood and political and financial constraints being placed upon it over a sliver of land acquired by the country with the largest land area in the world.

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