When Russian tanks rolled into Georgia and its fighter bombers
and artillery bombarded Gori, the Kremlin well knew it was
declaring that the Cold War had restarted. The Russian view is that
the West has been well warned and if it didn’t want to recognize
the fact, that was its problem.
Europe’s capitals and Washington are contorting themselves in
avoiding the obvious. No matter the final outcome of the
outrageously unequal political and military contest between Georgia
and Russia, Moscow’s gauntlet has been thrown in the face of the
West in general and the United States in particular.
Russia, still effectively led by KGB-trained and experienced
Vladimir Putin, decided to teach a lesson to all of its former
Soviet entities and satellites, with Georgia as an example. NATO
also has been sent a message in regard to any planned expansion,
most particularly in Ukraine.
The West Europeans, minus the still steadfast British, would
like to whitewash current events and pretend there really is still
plenty of room to negotiate a reasonable solution to this
unreasonable situation. Thus they want to ignore that Moscow is
perfectly happy to launch another Cold War now that it has the
economic leverage to do so. The Russians have calculated the
economic counteraction available to the West and have found the
balance to be clearly in Moscow’s favor.
IT HAS BEEN ARGUED that the importance of oil and gas received
through Russian-controlled pipelines to Europe is matched by the
needed revenue that Russia gains. Supposedly this should deter
Moscow from contemplating a cutoff of oil and gas shipments. But
the leverage doesn’t equalize even if the equation is valid. The
energy supply is more important to Europe in times of crisis than
the revenue is to Russia.
Among other things, the Kremlin leadership has calculated that
the Russian people are prepared to accept deprivation if it is
blamed on the West to a far greater extent than the Europeans can
deal with life without adequate energy supplies. This is Putin’s
essential calculus. Russia can have its Cold War, flex its national
muscle, and regain the international super power status it once
had. Effectively the Kremlin is putting geopolitics before
economics.
Washington, in the form of the next administration, has been
given a clear warning that Russia will no longer be a junior player
in the international power league. Interestingly, former Clinton
stalwarts such as Richard Holbrooke and Madeleine Albright —
possibly to toughen the Obama foreign affairs image — have been
quick to take the bait and have called for a hard American
line.
Lawrence Eagleburger, the pragmatic Secretary of State late in
the first Bush presidency, has been far more circumspect in
characterizing the Georgian issue as ultimately a matter for the
Europeans to handle. He sees U.S. involvement with Georgia beyond
humanitarian assistance and diplomatic pressure to be
unsustainable. Russia knows the U.S. is in no position to respond
militarily and has little to gain politically unless it is firmly
backed by the European Union.
The Kremlin would like to provoke the future White House into a
contest of wills. This is especially true in respect to Ukraine’s
NATO ambitions. The eastern half of that former Soviet republic is
very much oriented to Russia, economically and politically. Any
outbreak of dissidence in the style of South Ossetia will certainly
bring in the full might of the Russian army.
PUTIN’S SILOVIKI YEARN for the challenge. The invasion of
Georgia has been their declaration that Moscow is reasserting
traditional spheres of influence, as Defense Secretary Gates has
forcefully noted. He is well aware that one of the objectives of
Moscow is to obtain bargaining leverage to force the U.S. to halt
the proposed emplacement of ten anti-missile batteries in
Poland.
In historical terms Russia is playing the Great Power politics
of the 19th century. It believes it has its principal rival,
America, in the position of not being able to do anything at all
other than threaten economically.
The Cold War gambit again suits the Russian chess players, and
they are quite eager to get the game moving. The United States must
decide whether it wishes to participate — and if so, to what
extent. Or will the next Washington administration decide to leave
history in the hands of the Europeans this time? And does any
American White House any longer really have that choice?
