Something happened in Turkey that wasn’t supposed to.
Historically contrary forces governed the day as the nation’s
eleven-man constitutional court ruled against its own chief
prosecutor. In doing so the political lives of the highly respected
prime minister and president, as well as their dominant party, were
saved — for the moment.
The issue at hand was the charge that the Justice and
Development Party (AKP) had been pursuing “anti-secular activity”
in contravention of the Turkish constitution. The principal
evidence of this intent was AKP’s successful parliamentary effort
to pass a law allowing university girls to wear Islamic
headscarves. Though the law was struck down by the constitutional
court, the action by the AKP was deemed a threat to the secular
base of Turkey’s existence. The chief prosecutor referred to it as
a stealth imposition of sharia.
As obscure as this charge may be to a non-Turkish observer, the
separation of church and state has been the cornerstone of modern
Turkey. The judiciary backed by the armed forces has repeatedly
forced existing Ankara governments to change their ways or be
removed. That was the expectation this time as well. The178- page
indictment argued strongly that both the actions and statements of
Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and President Abdullah Gul and
their party were calculated to provide a threat to secular
predominance.
WHILE TEN OF THE ELEVEN constitutional court judges voted to
condemn the AKP for its anti-secular activity, enough votes could
not be gained to order the closing of the party. All that could be
agreed was that government funding of the AKP would be cut 50% — a
symbolic wrist slap as the party has many wealthy backers. It was
clearly another victory for Erdogan, the prime minister and party
leader.
The action of the court effectively placed on probation the
strongly Islamic AKP. The armed forces, which had deposed four
governments on earlier occasions, remained unexpectedly restrained.
This is possibly due to the fact that it is about to have a new
chief of general staff in a few weeks. The new head of the armed
forces, General Ilker Basbug, is considered a far stronger
adversary for the AKP than his predecessor.
PM Erdogan knows the unflappable and NATO-trained Basbug will be
able to increase pressure on the civilian government to curtail its
Islamic religious orientation simply because of his capability in
behind-the-scenes manipulation. In addition to the military there
is a strong alignment of the judiciary, academic and urban elites
of Ankara and Istanbul in the ongoing contest with the AKP’s power
base in Anatolia and among the rural voters and Kurdish ethnic
minority.
Turkey’s entrance into the European Union is desired by both the
secular and religious components of Turkey’s political life, and
that may be one of the things that restrained the politically
sensitive constitutional court. That and the ever present fear of a
return to the 2001 economic depression that badly jarred Turkey’s
business community has been a factor in keeping a lid on internal
political warfare.
Once again, however, PM Erdogan is moving ahead without
consensus in a challenge to his secular protective rivals. He has
ordered his group of deputy leaders of the AKP to proceed speedily
with a revised national constitution. This could be a gauntlet
thrown in the face of the secularists or an opening for a
compromise on basic matters of importance to both sides.
THE LAST THING the Middle East region needs is a breakdown in the
secular nature of Turkey’s governance. The European Union
recognizes this and its diplomats, along with those of the United
States, hope the new military leadership will be restrained in
their political negotiations with the AKP.
For its part, the EU could help things along by being a bit less
structurally demanding in its own handling of Turkey’s application
for accession to what sometimes can be a rather self-important
exclusive club. The presence of an EU member among Middle Eastern
Islamic nations might be a highly valuable step in moderating the
region’s broader political interests and orientation.
Turkey is on the brink of achieving the recognition of European
secular nations that was the dream and plan of the father of modern
Turkey, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk. Its future in this regard will be a
key bridge to the entire Middle Eastern region, drawing it closer
to its western neighbors. First, however, the bridge must be built
internally between the secular and religious.
Little recognized is the fact that the Turkish Armed Forces is
second only as a standing military command in NATO to that of the
United States. Its strategic value in the Middle East is immense.
Turkey is far more important to the West than the politicians in
Brussels and Washington are willing to admit.
