There are many explanations for the Russian invasion of South
Ossetia, but the truth is quite simple. Russia seeks to destabilize
Georgia in a long-range plan to return that nation to control by
Moscow.
The historically pro-Russian South Ossetians had made a point in
1991 of declaring their independence from Georgia and with Russian
aid fought a brief civil war with Georgia that ended with the
Ossetians running their own internal affairs. It was a relatively
happy compromise until 2004 when the new president, the
pro-American, English-speaking Mikheil Saakashvili, insisted on the
full return of the breakaway regions of South Ossetia and
Abkhazia.
Sporadic fighting has existed between the Georgian army and
Russian-backed militia forces since then, but there was no major
thrust by the Georgians. The Russians bided their time until the
regional politics and the U.S. strategic pendulum had swung away
from a possible full scale American military commitment.
For a while insiders in Moscow’s think tank world spoke openly
about the Kremlin’s willingness to drop their objection to
Georgia’s joining NATO if they would accede to South Ossetia and
Abkhazia rejoining Russia. It was a theory challenged by the
history of Vladimir Putin’s negotiating stance that never has given
an inch in the battle against the extension of NATO influence.
The details of the exchange of blows that originated the recent
bloodshed depends on who is spinning the tale. The incontrovertible
fact is that when called on by the South Ossetia militia, the
Russians were ready with hundreds of tanks and armored vehicles.
Here was an offensive force in place, ready for H-hour.
The artillery exchange was devastating, but targeting on both
sides was focused on populated areas rather than discriminated
military objectives. As a result civilian casualties have been
extraordinarily high in relation to military losses. Russian air
superiority has also accounted for heavy destruction in the
Georgian city of Gori.
Basically it’s been Chechnya all over again, and that is exactly
the type of indiscriminate warfare at which the Russian Army is so
adept. From the Russian military standpoint their job is not so
much a matter of defeating an opposing army as it is inflicting
maximum destruction on all who oppose them, civilian and military.
This combination of psychological and physical warfare is an
essential element in the Russian Army’s basic doctrine in dealing
with recalcitrant areas of the former Soviet Union.
The ultimate question is whether the Russians will be satisfied
with the return of South Ossetia and all of Abkhazia in northwest
Georgia to Russian sovereignty. One thing is clear: the
Putin/Medvedev government not only wants the message delivered that
they will not accept any further consideration of Georgia’s joining
NATO, Russian forces are ready and able to take all of Georgia if
necessary.
Both the politics and military advantage is on Moscow’s side.
America’s European allies are not about to support a military
effort to intervene on Georgia’s side against Russia — nor does
the U.S. currently have the capability. From a strictly political
standpoint Moscow has the Kosovo/Serbia sovereignty issue as
precedent and is making that point with China’s support.
Washington has wanted to be the “white knight” in the
Georgia/Russia contest of wills. Georgia represented an independent
democratic outgrowth of the breakup of the USSR. It was also an
enticing foothold in the southern Caucasus. As Russia has grown as
a petro-power, Moscow has counterattacked diplomatically and
politically with effect.
While the Pentagon assigned scores of training cadre to build up
Georgia’s armed forces to serve in Iraq, Washington also was
providing assistance to Georgia’s military overall. From Moscow’s
standpoint this was proof positive of American complicity in
Georgia’s defiant insistence that South Ossetia was rightfully
theirs.
Putin had decided long before he ceded the presidency of Russia
to Medvedev that it was essential for Russia to take a military
stand on the increasing NATO encroachment on Russia’s borders. The
Georgia/South Ossetia/Abkhazia issue provided that line in the
sand.
This conflict in the southern Caucasus has been a conflagration
waiting to happen. Make no mistake. Moscow will have its army take
it all the way to Georgia’s capital, Tbilisi, if necessary.
