COLORADO SPRINGS, Colo. — It’s become conventional wisdom that
the keys to the White House in 2008 will run through Colorado,
where rapidly changing demographics give Barack Obama a serious
shot at nabbing the previously reddish state’s nine Electoral
College votes. Yet as Obama and Republican rival John McCain focus
heavily on the Centennial state, an equally heated battle is
brewing for the state’s open U.S. Senate seat.
The pending retirement of Republican Sen. Wayne Allard gives
Democrats a serious opportunity to pad their slim 51-49 majority
(including two independents that caucus with the party). Democratic
nominee-to-be Mark Udall is a lynchpin in Democratic efforts to win
56 or 57 Senate seats (and even an unlikely but
not-out-of-the-question, filibuster-proof 60).
Polls show five-term Rep. Udall currently leading Republican
standard bearer-in-waiting Bob Schaffer by sizable, though not
insurmountable, margins. Udall was first elected to the House in
1998 — the same year as his cousin, Rep. Tom Udall of New Mexico,
who is heavily favored to win an open Senate seat in neighboring
New Mexico.
During his decade in the House Udall has amassed a fairly
conventional Democratic voting record — among other things, for
expanding research to more embryonic stem cell lines, no on the
Bush tax cuts, and against the 2002 Iraq war resolution.
While Schaffer’s campaign mocks the Democrat as a “Boulder
liberal,” his own record as a congressman from 1997 to 2003 could
make it difficult to reach beyond Colorado’s conservative base — a
not insignificant voting bloc, to be sure, but not enough produce a
statewide victory.
Schaffer was an active member of the Republican Study Committee
(RSC), the caucus of House Republicans organized to promote a
conservative social and economic agenda. He voted to allow drilling
in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, drilling in the Gulf of
Mexico and drilling in the Great Lakes — potentially troublesome
stances in environmentally-minded Colorado. Udall, a former
executive director of Colorado Outward Bound, voted against each
proposal.
Demographic patterns in Colorado also favor the Democrat. Urban
centers like Denver and Boulder are increasingly filled with
transplants from coastal California and liberal enclaves of the
East Coast, bringing along their left-leaning politics and voting
patterns.
THEN THERE’S the Hispanic population, which makes up nearly 20
percent of the state. A Public Policy Polling survey conducted July
9-10 found Barack Obama leading John McCain by a whopping 58-34
percent margin among Latino voters, the bedrock of his 47-43
statewide edge over the Arizona senator.
Schaffer voted a hard line against illegal immigration while in
Congress and his support among Latino voters is not likely to be
considerably higher. The same Public Policy poll gave Udall a 47-38
percent edge over Schaffer.
Democrats have won a series of big political victories in
Colorado recently. In 2004 they picked up an open U.S. House
district and Democrat Ken Salazar won the other Senate seat. Two
years later Democrats won the governorship, an additional U.S.
House seat, and control of the state legislature.
Schaffer also faced personal embarrassment in recent days,
apologizing for his son’s college website, which contained stickers
declaring “Slavery Gets S…. Done,” while another showed an image
of Jesus holding an M-16 in front of a Confederate flag, among
other impolitic slogans and pictures.
Voters are likely to care less about such personal issues than
Schaffer’s conservative record, which extends to his nine years
served in the state legislature before entering Congress. Even a
few years ago that would have been an asset in a state the twice
backed George W. Bush. As Democrats look to run-up their Senate
numbers in 2008 it may prove a liability.
If so, then Barack Obama will not be the only Democrat enjoying
a happy election night as Colorado returns roll in.
