The American Spectator

Special Report

Understanding American Politics

By Peter Ferrara on 8.6.08 @ 12:07AM

(Page 2 of 2)

HAVING ESTABLISHED this groundwork, Norquist continues in the book with the most brilliant and insightful analysis of the rise of the conservative movement and its long-term prospects that I have ever seen. Swelling the rise of the Leave Us Alone Coalition is the sharp growth of the investor class and widespread stock ownership, the sharp decline of labor unions, the growth of the more devout among Protestants (evangelicals), Catholics, and Jews, the growth of Mormons, the sharp rise of talk radio, the decentralized Internet, and the new media, the sharp decline of the major networks and old newspapers, the growth of homeschooling, higher fertility rates and much less abortion among conservatives and traditional families, the dying off of Great Depression era voters, continued growth of the NRA and explosion in conceal-and-carry permits, superior political training of young conservatives and Republicans that can't be duplicated on the Left (young conservatives are better behaved than young lefties), and much more limited opportunities to increase turnout of Takings Coalition voters.

Trends supporting the Takings Coalition include more widespread dependency on government handouts, increasing numbers of government employees, increased opportunities for voter fraud, the movement to allow voting by criminal convicts (hardcore practitioners of Takings Coalition philosophy), and the declining number of hunters. Norquist argues that the Hispanic vote is still up for grabs, with the increasing proportion of evangelical Hispanics a special opportunity, if Republicans don't stupidly alienate this voting block for the long term with overly aggressive anti-immigrant rhetoric and policies.

Norquist recognizes that the long-term outcome of the battle between the two coalitions is consequently still uncertain, depending on how these trends turn out. Wise conservative and Republican leaders would try to strengthen the positive trends for the Leave Us Alone coalition, and weaken the negative trends. Norquist agrees that a huge opportunity in this regard is personal accounts for Social Security, massively increasing the strength of the investor class. Norquist also notes that with African Americans still voting 90% for Democrats, a huge latent opportunity exists in a potential Leave Us Alone coalition breakthrough with these voters.

On the other side of the ledger, Republicans would be foolish to allow Democrats to take away secret ballot elections for unions, allowing unions to beat working people (literally) into acquiescing to union control over their jobs. They would also be foolish to allow Democrats to bring back the phony "fairness doctrine" and shut down talk radio. Republicans and conservatives need to be alert to stop increasing government dependency, and look for opportunities to reverse it.

NORQUIST'S ANALYSIS shows why it is so counterproductive for Republicans to give in to Democrats in supporting tax increases, increased regulation, gun control, and other initiatives that run counter to the Leave Us Alone coalition. Those sellouts undermine support from the natural coalition base of support for Republicans and conservatives, and ultimately lead to political defeat. See, e.g., President Bush 41.

His analysis also shows why David Frum and others are so wrong in arguing that the tax issue is dead and that political success now lies in embracing a Big Government conservatism that would increase government dependency and taxes. That would not just short-circuit appeal to the Leave Us Alone coalition, but undermine the long term strength of the coalition itself.

Norquist's analysis represents the real political world as it is. Putative Republican and conservative leaders ignore it at their peril.

Letter to the Editor

topics:
Taxes, Trade, Business, Social Security, Abortion, Environment, Law, Africa, Conservatism, Energy, Unions