By George H. Wittman on 6.3.08 @ 12:07AM
Shrewd Iran is convincing the anti-American world that it's a poor little country badly bullied by Bush America.
Iran wants to have it both ways -- and they're getting it. In
the one instance Tehran aims to convince its neighbors and the rest
of the world it is the unjustified target of U.S. animosity. At the
same time it clearly wants to gain power status internationally by
aggressively pursuing economic and political objectives around the
world.
Being a victim at one moment and shifting into benefactor garb
the next seems to be working far better than Washington would like
to recognize. The Iranians have mounted an effective campaign to
deflect the persistent American efforts to categorize them as
potential nuclear weapon developers.
The American view of Iran is as a danger to Israel as well as
Arab nations in the region. In the Gulf area, in particular, this
is not a paramount concern. For these Arab states Iran is first a
major source of investment capital and expatriate skilled workers.
In Dubai alone, nearly half a million Iranians reside and provide
essential services, as they do elsewhere in the area. Iranian
investment in the Gulf economies has been estimated to exceed $500
billion.
These factors by themselves, without any customary and expected
political influence, have diminished the Gulf nations' support for
the United States' efforts to coerce Tehran in respect to its
nuclear development program. On the contrary, a not inconsiderable
diplomatic effort is under way among those whom Washington
considers regional Arab allies to have the Bush Administration
soften its stand against Iran in the United Nations.
While the U.S. is struggling with the perception of the dangers
that a nuclear-armed Iran may present in the Middle East, Iran's
immediate neighbors appear to be more worried over what American
military preemptive measures might occur. Clearly anti-American
propaganda around the world plays to this twisted concept.
The oil price rise has provided more than enough capital for
Iran's covert programs to influence foreign political judgment. At
the same time, perfectly legitimate commercial involvement of Iran
in major development projects from Asia to Latin America creates a
benign Persian image that carries with it an important political
component.
The influence of Iran in places like Lebanon has been obvious
for many years. Less well recognized is the long-term interest
Iranian business has had in South American economic centers such as
Rio de Janeiro and Caracas. Before the Anglo-American invasion to
depose Saddam Hussein, Persian and Iraqi businessmen were in fierce
behind-the-scenes trade and investment competition in Brazil and
other major Latin economies.
THE IMAGE OF AN isolated Iran is just not correct. Not only does it
have strong protectors in the United Nations in the form of Russia
and China, but many countries, such as India, which depend on
imported oil and gas are vulnerable to Iranian blandishments. All
over the developing world small and large economic projects show an
Iranian investment connection.
Accompanying the economic devices of Iran globally is the easily
reinforced local reaction in support of the principle of smaller
nations standing up to the American behemoth. "Twisting the lion's
tail" originally applied to British colonial interests. Now the
United States has been smeared with the same imperial
character.
Tehran knows well how to play that theme. While it successfully
has expanded its regional power and continued to proceed with its
secret nuclear weapon program, Iran has assumed the character of
the misunderstood, poor, struggling post-imperial nation. That Iran
is sitting on some of the world's largest natural gas and oil
reserves is ignored as it pretends to be among the disadvantaged of
the developing world.
Imbedded in the philosophy of Shia culture is the principle of
taqiyah, which in simple terms means dissemblance and
lying to protect the faith. The Iranians have perfected this device
and use it today to hide their abilities and intentions. To appear
to be weak when you are actually strong is the essence of this
policy. Unfortunately, it appears to be working.
It is far too easy to recommend a policy of firmness and finesse
to counter the Persian ploys. The next Washington administration is
going to have to decide just how dangerous it is to have a
regionally ambitious, nuclear-armed Iran. Talking alone is just not
going to make any difference when one side uses talking as a tool
of dissimulation rather than negotiation.
topics:
Trade, Business, Military, Iraq, Iran, Russia, Israel, United Nations, Oil
