By John Samples on 5.30.08 @ 12:08AM
What Obama is really saying to poor voters.
Much has been made about Barack Obama's difficulties attracting
the votes of conservative Democrats. Some say his problems go back
to his race. Others cite his comments about guns and religion.
Still others say his social liberalism turns off conservatives in
both parties. Obama, and liberal Democrats in general, do have a
cultural problem with conservative Democrats. But the problem goes
well beyond guns and God.
Americans on the whole are optimistic and expect their elected
leaders to promise a better future. Americans are generally
optimistic because they believe in personal responsibility and the
rewards of work. Individuals are in charge of their fates and not
the victims of impersonal forces.
In 2005, the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press
found that 68 percent of the general population agreed that "Most
people who want to get ahead can make it if they're willing to work
hard." They also found that about 80 percent of Americans agree
that "everyone has it in their own power to succeed."
Some Americans, however, are not optimistic. In 2005, the Pew
Research Center identified a group called Disadvantaged Democrats.
This group is important to Democratic presidential candidates.
Voters from this group made up 22 percent of John Kerry's total
vote in 2004.
DISADVANTAGED DEMOCRATS differ from most Americans on personal
responsibility. Only 14 percent think that people can get ahead by
working hard. Seventy-nine percent say that hard work does not
guarantee success, and 76 percent hold that view strongly.
The Pew researchers also note that only 44 percent of
Disadvantaged Democrats say that everyone has the power to succeed,
while 47 percent take the fatalistic view that success in life is
determined by forces outside one's own control. Not surprisingly,
this group strongly supports more government spending on the poor.
For these voters, wealth comes from government largesse rather than
individual effort.
Disadvantaged Democrats may not have read John Rawls, but their
attitudes are quintessentially liberal. The poor are victims of
society, and government does justice by redistributing wealth from
the rich (who don't deserve it) to the poor (who do). Hope for a
better future comes from the tax man, the social worker, and the
guaranteed income.
Culturally Conservative Democrats do not buy this part of
liberalism. Pew found that 83 percent of conservative Democrats
believe that most people can get ahead if they are willing to work.
About 68 percent of the general population shares that view.
The attitudes of Conservative Democrats on personal
responsibility are the mirror image of those espoused by
Disadvantaged Democrats, even though both groups have similar
economic situations. Conservative Democrats are also no more likely
than the average person to think government should increase welfare
spending.
CONSERVATIVE DEMOCRATS are also important to Barack Obama's
presidential effort. Pew reports such Democrats compose 15 percent
of registered voters. Sixty-five percent of Conservative Democrats
voted for John Kerry.
John McCain may appeal to Conservative Democrats. Conservative
Democrats may see in McCain a fellow traveler on the question of
personal responsibility.
Barack Obama has tried hard to avoid being labeled a liberal.
However, he has also continually blamed Republicans and business
corporations for all the economic challenges faced by voters.
In part, Obama is just running against the status quo like every
challenger. But he is also seems to say Americans are victims of
the fates and that hope comes from the government. "Yes, we can" is
becoming "No, you can't" followed by "here's a program." That
inclination could be fatal in the fall.
Yet another path lies open to Sen. Obama who has promised a new
politics that transcends the failed ideologies of the past. His
claim to be the harbinger of a new politics would be more credible
if he jettisoned the liberal shibboleths of victimhood and
dependence, a change that would appeal to the culture of
Conservative Democrats.
In doing well in this way, Obama might also do good. His
endorsement of work, optimism and personal responsibility might
encourage Disadvantaged Democrats to adopt the dominant culture of
work, success, and real hope.
A politics of "Yes, you can" from the Democratic presidential
candidate would be change everyone can believe in, conservatives
included.
topics:
John McCain, Barack Obama, Business, Religion
