INDIANAPOLIS -- Barack Obama should probably send thank-you
notes to Congressman Andre Carson; Carson's Republican challenger
Jon Elrod; Gary, Indiana mayor Rudy Clay; and white voters in
Elkhart, Monroe, and Marion counties. After all, they helped to
make him the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee.
Without them, Obama wouldn't have been able to stymie Hillary
Clinton's comeback bid by narrowing her victory in the Hoosier
State to a mere 20,000 votes, and defy skeptics who thought the
Illinois senator couldn't duel her in a state considered to be one
of the most rural, white, and blue-collar in the nation.
Following up on victories last month in seemingly similar states
such as Pennsylvania, Clinton was expected to defeat Obama in
Indiana's primary, which would boost her share of delegates and
help to make the case for the Democratic nomination at the August
convention. In theory, it should have been easy. Indiana, 88
percent white, with an economy traditionally dependent on
manufacturing and farming, was perceived to be the kind of Rust
Belt state she has decisively won this primary season.
The state economy's fitful transition from a dependence on the
Big Three automakers and other old-school manufacturers should have
made it too blue-collar for Obama, a former University of Chicago
law school instructor.
Clinton also had the backing of U.S. Sen. Evan Bayh, a former
governor and son of a legendary senator whose state Democratic
political machine is based in rural areas in the southern and
northern parts of the state. Along with his own collection of
cronies, Bayh, angling for a vice presidential nod, also brought
along the state Democratic Party, which currently controls the
lower house of Indiana's legislature.
Also in her favor: The state's reputation as a bastion of
patriotic fervor. Its state capital, Indianapolis, is home to the
American Legion and the nation's largest memorial dedicated to the
military, the Soldiers and Sailors monument. Obama's Ivy League
background and ties to the ranting critic of American foreign
policy, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, should have hurt him in the
state, allowing Clinton (a Yale Law School grad) to play up her
blue-collar shtick in a most Nixonian manner.
Clinton certainly racked up votes in those areas of the state.
She won all but nine counties. But she didn't gain the overwhelming
victory that her backers and pundits were expecting. All of them
failed to consider three things: The weakness of Indiana's
Democratic Party; the ability of the state's black political
leaders to grind out votes from both their communities and urban
whites; and the state's growing economic and social diversity.
ALTHOUGH BAYH REMAINS a formidable presence in Hoosier State
politics, his fellow Democrats haven't exactly been on a roll. The
party fell into disarray four years ago when the incumbent
governor, Joe Kernan, failed to capitalize on sympathy gained from
the death of his beloved predecessor, Frank O'Bannon. He lost the
seat to Mitch Daniels, President George W. Bush's first budget
director.
The party then failed to pick up any statewide offices two years
ago, despite the weakness of the Republican slate. Last year, its
shining national star, Indianapolis Mayor Bart Peterson, was swept
out of office by a poorly-funded Republican opponent. His fellow
Democrats also lost control of the city-county council just four
years after gaining a majority.
Meanwhile the party leadership can't even get its own top picks
through the primary process. On Tuesday, its preferred
gubernatorial candidate, school architect Jim Schellinger, lost to
former congresswoman Jill Long Thompson. She won despite her
minuscule presence on the political scene for most of the past
decade.
Obama, on the other hand, built strong ties to key areas of the
state such as Gary and especially, Indianapolis. Earlier this year,
Obama sensibly endorsed Carson in his successful special election
bid for Seventh Congressional District seat, which covers most of
Indianapolis and Marion County.
As the scion of the late Congresswoman Julia Carson, the younger
Carson brought with him the powerful, old-school assemblage of
unions, black churches, urbane white liberals and factory workers
who helped his grandmother temporarily displace the city's
Republican leadership. Also aiding Obama was Carson's chief rival
in the Democratic congressional primary, former healthcare
executive Woody Myers, who also gave Obama his endorsement. The
Carson machine, along with Obama's get-out-the-vote events such as
a Barack-the Block party on the city's diverse Westside, helped the
Illinois senator beat Clinton in Marion County by a two-to-one
margin
The biggest surprise was a win by Obama in northwest Indiana's
Elkhart County. Whites account for 92 percent of the population,
college graduates account for just 16 percent of adults age 25 and
over, and the median household income is just $3,000 over the
statewide average. Despite all this, Obama won the county's
delegates, 59 percent to 41 percent. He also won nearby St. Joseph
County, which is 84 percent white and has a lower-than-average
median household income.
THE BIGGEST MISTAKE by Clinton was in presuming that Indiana was
like just another Rust Belt state. The reality is that it is a
microcosm of the entire nation, with the almost all the same
socioeconomic and demographic characteristics. In some ways, its
combination of rural and urban gives it more of a resemblance to
nearby Illinois or New York than Ohio or Iowa.
Home to three ports, from which its farmers ship white corn and
wheat to foreign locales, it is a player in the global economy. It
is home to the world's largest popcorn company; medical products
giants such as Eli Lilly; and WellPoint, the nation's largest
healthcare firm. It is also home to Purdue University, which has
the nation's second-largest foreign student population; the
legendary Notre Dame; liberal arts bastions Butler University and
Wabash College; and Indiana University, with its famed medical
school.
Among the rural burgs are mostly-black cities such as Gary --
essentially a suburb of Obama's hometown of Chicago -- and areas
with growing Latino populations such as Elkhart County, where they
account, on average, for 30 percent of the enrollment in its two
largest school districts.
And then there is the paradox that is Indianapolis, with its mix
of corporate headquarters, statehouse bureaucracies, auto
factories, warehouses, farming communities, and suburbs. It is one
of the Republicans' few urban strongholds and one of the state's
most powerful Democratic machines -- as blue-collar as is it urban
sophisticate.
Though the state's political and social culture is notoriously
hidebound, it can also be dynamic and cosmopolitan. Younger voters
support a wide spectrum of ideas, from gay marriage to
privatization of government services. This made for the kind of
conditions in which Obama can compete, if not always win outright.
When Obama spoke on Monday at the American Legion Mall in
Indianapolis to a throng of thousands, it was clear that many
Hoosiers have come to embrace him.
Obama's performance in Indiana shows that he can be competitive
in the general election. So Clinton will now have to either develop
a new game plan or just bow out gracefully, as she should. But she
won't.
topics:
Barack Obama, Law, Military, NATO, Unions
