A month from now, the last Democratic primaries and caucuses
will be over, and it will be left to the superdelegates to settle
the race for the nomination.
Our esteemed press corps just can’t wait. “We now know who the
Democratic nominee is going to be, and no one’s going to dispute
it,” Tim Russert imperiously declares. David Gergen, Bob Schieffer,
George Stephanopoulos, and Bob Frank, among others, all followed suit in declaring that the race is
over, and Barack Obama is the victor.
What nonsense.
Last month Obama said, quite reasonably, that “Indiana right now
may end up being the tiebreaker.” From the tone of the coverage you
might conclude that he had won the Hoosier State, but of course he
lost. The conventional wisdom is turning against Hillary Clinton
because her victory was narrower than expected, but without an
outright loss it’s silly to think that she’d throw in the towel
now.
“But what about the math?” cries the Game Over Chorus. What
about it? As everyone who follows politics closely knows by now,
neither candidate can reach a delegate majority with pledged
delegates alone. Obama currently enjoys a pledged delegate lead of
roughly 160, and because of the Democrats’ embrace of proportional
representation, that number won’t change much in the remaining
contests. Factoring in superdelegates who have endorsed a
candidate, Obama’s lead is somewhere in the neighborhood of 150.
The Democratic National Committee’s Rules & Bylaws Committee
will meet on May 31st to discuss the fate of the Florida and
Michigan delegations, and if those delegations are seated — which
is quite possible, given the
make-up of the committee — Obama’s lead shrinks to around
100.
As of this writing 267.5 superdelegates remain undecided (the .5
comes from the Democrats Abroad delegation, which is only allotted
half a vote per delegate). So Team Clinton needs to persuade about
184 of these politicians and party hacks to hand her the
nomination. Is that really so inconceivable?
If it comes down to a bidding war over political favors — which
for many superdelegates, it will — Clinton has an important card
to play: As a member of the Senate Democratic Steering Committee,
which helps shape the agenda of the Democratic leadership on the
Hill, she can offer to press for superdelegates’ policy priorities
— or threaten to press against them. Obama has less senatorial
power to leverage. And there’s always the possibility that Obama
will commit some gaffe that so shakes superdelegates’ confidence in
his electability that they become willing to throw him
overboard.
THIS ISN’T TO SAY that Obama isn’t the favorite, even the
overwhelming favorite, for the nomination. Nine of the uncommitted
superdelegates, including House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, have promised
to support the pledged-delegate leader — i.e. Obama — and many
more are likely to follow their lead. Because the Indiana result
was close, Clinton’s shot at a popular vote victory has dwindled,
denying her an argument to make to superdelegates. The race for the
Democratic nomination is close to the end, and Hillary’s chance of
victory is about one in ten.
But that’s more than zero, and the eagerness of the talking
heads to end the race prematurely is more than a little revealing.
Political coverage, especially in primary season, is usually
somewhat distorted by reporters’ bias in favor of viewing races as
tighter than they are, which makes the job of reporting on politics
more interesting. This tendency has been swamped by an overwhelming
affinity in the press for Barack Obama. If he does prevail with the
superdelegates, he will have as shameless a media cheering section
as any nominee has ever had.
