By Philip Klein on 5.7.08 @ 3:25AM
She didn't count on Obama's rope-a-dope strategy.
RALEIGH, NC -- Hillary Clinton may not have reached the end of
her presidential campaign last night, but the end is now surely
within staggering distance.
With the final results still trickling in as of this writing,
Obama was assured of a blowout double digit win here in the Tar
Heel State, while Clinton barely squeaked by in Indiana. Her
victory margin was so slim that she couldn't be declared the winner
until the wee hours this morning.
From a mathematical perspective, yesterday's results have
enabled Obama to essentially wipe out the delegate and popular vote
gains Clinton made in her big Pennsylvania win two weeks ago.
Obama not only has an insurmountable lead over Clinton in the
pledged delegate race, but he still leads in the popular vote even
if one were to include Michigan (where he wasn't even on the
ballot) and Florida, while excluding several caucus states that he
won.
CLINTON MAY BE HOPING big victories in West Virginia and Kentucky
will boost her popular vote total, but with Obama likely to win
Oregon, South Dakota, and Montana, any such gains will prove
ephemeral.
Just as a basketball team trailing by 20 points toward the end
of the fourth quarter cannot afford to trade baskets with its
opponent, Clinton cannot hope to recover from the split decision
that she had yesterday, followed by splits in the six remaining
contests.
From a symbolic perspective, the fact that there are no huge
states left for Clinton to win will make it more difficult to
manipulate news coverage going forward.
For more than two months, Clinton was able to use victories in
the large states of Ohio, Texas, and Pennsylvania to remain
relevant. Last night, she blew her last chance to uproot the media
narrative of her campaign.
Victories in West Virginia, Kentucky, and the electoral
vote-less Puerto Rico, simply won't shake up the race.
IN OBAMA'S VICTORY SPEECH here last night, the freshman Senator
from Illinois shifted his message toward the general election.
Rather than go after Clinton, he used the opportunity to call for
party unity and direct sharp barbs at John McCain.
"Tonight, many of the pundits have suggested that this party is
inalterably divided, that Senator Clinton's supporters will not
support me and that my supporters would not support her," Obama
declared. "Well, I am here tonight to tell you that I don't believe
it."
Obama's supporters left the rally convinced that he had
essentially wrapped up the nomination.
Warren Coleman, who came in from Miami to help out with the
campaign for a week, when asked whether he could support Clinton
were the superdelegates to give her the nomination, shot back,
"That wouldn't happen, that can't happen."
A group of Obama volunteers from Chapel Hill who had spent the
day canvassing thought it was time for Clinton to fold up her
tent.
"I think for the best of the party she needs to drop out," said
one of them, Michael Meng, citing the near mathematical
impossibility of her overtaking Obama in any metric.
Elizabeth Gritter predicted, "I think this has sealed his
presidential nomination, I really do."
CLINTON IS UNLIKELY to drop out imminently, because she is a
Clinton. But last night's Hillary showed a lot less fight than the
one who came out swinging after the victory in Pennsylvania.
Bill, who did a marathon of nine events on Monday in North
Carolina to no avail, could be seen behind Hillary, wearing defeat
all over his face.
She'll still fight for Florida and Michigan to be seated, and
make the pitch to superdelegates that only she can win the big
important states, but Obama will quietly inch closer to the
nomination in the coming weeks.
Obama's inability to close the deal against Clinton -- in Ohio,
Texas, Pennsylvania, and Indiana -- suggest potential weaknesses
for him a general election, especially among working class
voters.
The protracted primary season knocked off Obama's halo. Though
his victory in North Carolina was impressive, it was nothing
compared with the staggering margins he racked up in neighboring
Virginia and South Carolina earlier in the race.
But the general election is a whole new battle, and anybody who
still thinks that Obama cannot take a punch, needs to ask himself
why a such a political novice is on the verge of taking down the
once-indomitable Clinton machine.
topics:
Trade, John McCain, Hillary Clinton, NATO