By G. Tracy Mehan, III on 4.28.08 @ 12:07AM
The Democrats' civil war promises to be a long hard slog.
I propose to fight it out on this line if it takes
all summer.
-- Ulysses Simpson Grant, May 11, 1864
Senators Clinton and Obama might be channeling Ulysses Simpson
Grant this spring as they look forward to a long hard slog into
summer in their quest for their party's presidential
nomination.
Grant was in Spotsylvania when he sent General Halleck that
famous note in May of 1864 promising to "fight it out on this line
if it takes all summer."
Well, Senator Obama has been unable to put a stake through the
heart of Senator Clinton's campaign, and the New York Senator does
not appear to be giving up on her quest for the nomination come
hell or high water. Bill Bennett, who recently noted her
"perseverance" on national TV, could include another entry on this
virtue in the reissue of his book on the subject.
Still, it appears numerically impossible for her to catch Obama
in either the popular vote or the delegate count, absent the
Democratic Super Delegates big-footing the process, throwing the
nomination to Clinton and thereby alienating one of the most loyal
constituencies in the history of the party.
The Clinton talent for post-modern deconstruction of words and
numbers seems to be kicking into high gear. Delegates are not real
delegates. Losing is winning. Pennsylvania is more representative
than Missouri, the indicator state in the general
election, which Obama won. As NBC's Tim Russert, host of Meet
the Press, recently noted, the Clintons are stronger on
psychology than arithmetic.
Obama has lost a lot of his luster since the early days of the
campaign. While his Internet fundraising effort is still putting
petrol in his tank, he seems to be developing very negative
resonance with blue-collar Democrats, which is code for Catholics,
a demographic group that has been singularly unresponsive to his
charms. Reverend Wright, Mrs. Obama, and the Senator's own
foot-in-mouth comments to the wine sippers in Marin County, CA,
have all taken their toll. Even Pennsylvania's pro-life Senator
Casey couldn't help him with these voters.
Senator Obama will re-gain ground in North Carolina, I think,
but how much is not clear. Either way, the Clintons will
characterize it as a racially based success only.
Who knows what will happen in Indiana. In a recent column, Bob
Novak discussed the return of the dreaded "Bradley effect" in which
voters do not tell pollsters, honestly, whether or not they would
vote for a black candidate. Former Mayor Bradley of Los Angeles was
leading in polls during his race for governor, but he lost the
election. Senator Obama might be in the same position. Even those
of us who would not vote for any Democrat find the re-emergence of
this phenomenon depressing. But it may be real even in the 21st
century. One would like to think that Colin Powell might have
broken the spell had he run for high office.
The Clinton resurrection is the result of equal parts tenacity,
spin, and perceived weakness on the part of her opponent. But,
again, would African Americans reward the Democratic Party with
their votes in the general election if Senator Obama was overthrown
by a coup of the Super Delegates? For that reason alone, I am still
betting on Barack Obama.
Whether I am right or wrong, the Democratic candidates will be
soldiering on through the summer of '08.
topics:
Barack Obama, NATO, Africa
