Freeze!
That’s the message that Pennsylvania voters delivered to the
Democratic Party last night by handing Hillary Clinton a sizable
but not landslide victory in the Keystone State.
For all the buildup to the primary over the past six weeks, by
the end of the evening the Democratic race remained largely the
same as it was going in. Clinton’s chances of overtaking Barack
Obama in the delegate count or popular vote are still remote, but
questions remain about Obama’s ability to win over key demographic
groups in large swing states.
For all the talk about how volatile this primary season has
been, it has actually proven quite predictable. In states where
there is a critical mass of older, white, working class voters,
Clinton wins; where there is a critical mass of young voters, black
voters, and affluent whites, Obama wins.
Clinton, no doubt, came into Pennsylvania with a huge advantage
in the state, and benefitted from the backing of Gov. Ed Rendell.
But Obama dug into his war chest and poured a tremendous amount of
money into the Keystone State.
If the goal wasn’t to win, it was at least to narrow the gap
enough to prove to superdelegates that demography is not destiny —
that he can attract white working class voters who have resisted
his charms thus far.
WE WILL NEVER know how much the firestorm over Obama’s associations
with Rev. Jeremiah Wright and domestic terrorist Bill Ayers hurt
his showing in the state. But while it is inconclusive, there is at
least some data suggesting that Obama’s comments about small town
voters clinging to guns and religion out of bitterness hurt him in
Pennsylvania.
In Ohio — a neighboring state with similar demographics to
Pennsylvania — Clinton edged out Obama among weekly churchgoers 51
percent to 47 percent, according to exit polls. But that was before
his controversial comments. Last night, Clinton dominated Obama among this voting bloc by a 58
percent to 42 percent margin.
This is especially worrisome for Obama looking forward to the
general election, because he has pitched himself as a Democrat who
could reach out to religious voters who have been historically
neglected by liberals.
While Obama did slightly improve his showing among white and
rural voters, he still did badly with those two groups —
attracting just 38 percent and 39 percent, respectively. Among gun
owners, Clinton trounced Obama by 62 percent to 38 percent in
Pennsylvania (but no similar statistic is available for Ohio).
Obama, tellingly, was in Evansville, Indiana last night, his
schedulers having essentially conceded Pennsylvania before the
voting started.
In her victory speech, backed up by supporters sporting boxing
gloves, Clinton showed no signs of throwing in the towel. “Some
people counted me out and said to drop out, but the American people
don’t quit and they deserve a president who doesn’t quit either,”
she boasted.
While Clinton scored a much-needed win last night, it wasn’t
large enough to change the dynamics of the race. As of this
writing, Clinton’s victory margin in Pennsylvania was hovering at
just under 10 points.
While the precise delegate breakdown is not yet clear, her
failure to achieve a blowout means that she still trails Obama by
well over 100 delegates with just over 400 delegates to be awarded
in the remaining Democratic primaries.
Her solid but not stellar win also makes it unlikely that
Clinton will be able to catch Obama in the crucial popular vote. Of
the states remaining, North Carolina on May 6 is the biggest prize
with 115 delegates, and Obama should win comfortably there, eating
into gains Clinton made Tuesday.
When Indiana votes the same day, it will be a much more even
match, and Clinton will have her last chance to embarrass Obama
with a win in his neighboring state, although a win there wouldn’t
change the math.
But while Clinton marches on, her money woes may catch up with
her. Her campaign is currently over $10 million in debt. In her
victory speech, Clinton acknowledged her financial disadvantage,
and made a desperate plea for supporters to visit her campaign
Website and make a donation.
The next few days will be a good indicator of whether Clinton’s
fans have as much fight left in them as the woman herself. Another
question mark is how much of their fortune she and Bill will be
willing to spend on the campaign.
THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY faces the same dilemma it has for over two
months. On the one hand, Clinton is all but mathematically
eliminated under the rules she agreed to at the start of the
process.
For superdelegates to nominate her would not only alienate black
voters who make up the party’s most loyal voting group, but turn
off a new generation of young voters that has been inspired by
Obama. Exit polls consistently show that Clinton’s level of support
decreases among each successively younger age group.
However, the results of Pennsylvania reinforce the fact that
Obama has consistently underperformed in large swing states, and
among working class voters who will be crucial to the party’s
chances of winning in November.
Democrats started off the year believing that the election would
be a cakewalk. But it’s looking more and more like a quagmire.
