It was bound to happen. If Robert Mugabe ever lost an election
to remain president of Zimbabwe, he would deny it ever happened,
obstruct the result, or simply call for a recount after he had
refined his methods of manipulating the result. And all of the
above has happened.
The final chapter of Mugabe’s dictatorial 28-year-reign as head
of government is not yet ended, but the process of the denouement
is as ugly as expected. No matter what happens in the next few
weeks, short of his death, Mugabe will continue his struggle for
personal control of his country.
There should be no mistake about this man. He has all the
qualities of egocentricity, paranoia, and hatefulness that the many
caricatures of him suggest. At the same time, the 84-year-old
Mugabe remains acutely clever and cunning. What a combination!
Young Robert was always a bright boy. The Franciscans and
Jesuits who trained him in his early years were convinced he would
be one of their “winners.” They were right, of course, but not
quite in the manner they envisaged.
Mugabe’s early political training, not unlike Patrice Lumumba’s,
was straight out of the Soviet-written Afro/Asian solidarity
handbook. He further developed his contacts through his days in
Kwame Nkrumah’s Ghana; one of many up-and-coming African leaders
who sojourned as guests of the increasingly pro-Russian and
socialist Ghanaian leader.
Mugabe learned a great deal from Nkrumah’s political mistakes in
dealing with other African leaders. But he learned even more in
terms of what was needed to maintain authority at home. From the
beginning of his taking power in 1980, he did what all dedicated
dictators do. He built an unswervingly loyal military and security
force.
Ubiquitous uniformed and plain-clothes security elements have
kept Robert Mugabe in power. Among other things, these troops have
been convinced by their officers in recent days that the departure
of their “true president” will mean the disbandment of their force
and force them into the poverty that strangles the rest of
Zimbabwe. This is a powerful motivating factor.
Efforts have been made by people close to the opposition leader,
Morgan Tsvangirai, to assure the ranking officers of the army and
police forces that their professional services will remain intact
after the departure of Mugabe. So far there is no sign of serious
defection. Mugabe and his government party, ZANU-PF, have gained
the time to regroup and work toward a recount of the recent
elections that clearly tossed them out of both presidential and
parliamentary office.
If Morgan Tsvangirai had the toughness of Mugabe, he would have
a better chance of leading his party, Movement for Democratic
Change (MDC), to dominance over the aging Mugabe. But therein lies
the problem. The dictator is still the smartest and most ruthless
politician in Zimbabwe — and maybe in all of Africa.
Mugabe has been able to keep his fellow African leaders from
exerting the pressure necessary to place Tsvangirai in power. It
seems as if the other leaders are mesmerized by the old
revolutionary. President Thabo Mbeki, himself holding on to
political power by a thread in South Africa, said after a
well-publicized meeting in Harare with Mugabe: “There is no
crisis.”
In the end, Robert Mugabe has proved that democracy itself does
not prevent totalitarianism. Zimbabwe has had a fully functioning
representative government for many years now. This process has been
exploited by a clever autocrat assisted by willing party faithful
and a jackbooted security service.
Even the Congo’s deadly dictator Mobutu in the 1970s was
periodically “voted” into office, as have been other African
leaders via so-called democratic processes. It’s not the name of
the process that ensures equality but the character of the people
controlling the process itself. American municipal machine politics
has confirmed that many times. Eventually the people take back
their government, and the hope is that time may be arriving for
Zimbabwe.
Mugabe will continue to exploit any aspects of the democratic
process available to him — including declaring an emergency if
necessary. The wild card remains the extent, if any, of outside
pressure; the continued hesitancy of Morgan Tsvangirai to assume
leadership; and most important, the maintenance of the loyalty of
the military.
In the meantime, Zimbabwe’s population suffers under oppressive
economic mismanagement, an incredible 100,000% inflation and a
total lack of civil direction. When will Africa help itself?
