Jim Ogonowski is on a coffee shop tour of Massachusetts, which
might explain his caffeinated exuberance. He rattles off a list of
towns he has visited recently and says, “Everywhere I go, people
are tired of the status quo in Washington, D.C.” In a Boston
accent, he complains about “rekkid deficits” and gas prices
reaching “foah dollas a gallon.” The Dracut farmer, 28-year Air
Force veteran, and Republican Senate candidate is absolutely
convinced he can unseat four-term Sen. John Kerry this
November.
It would be quite an upset. Kerry has banked $9.9 million in
campaign funds and hasn’t faced a serious challenge in twelve
years. Massachusetts does not have a single Republican congressman
or statewide officeholder. The commonwealth hasn’t elected a
Republican to the U.S. Senate since Edward Brooke won his last term
in 1972. This year, there is likely to be a big Democratic vote for
president regardless of whether the nominee is Barack Obama or
Hillary Clinton. Ogonowski isn’t even assured the GOP senatorial
nomination, as he must first face Jeff Beatty in a September
primary.
Ogonowski is undeterred. He ran a more
competitive than expected race to fill a vacant House seat for
Massachusetts’ Fifth Congressional District. Democrat Niki Tsongas
ended up beating Ogonowski by just 52 percent to 46 percent,
despite Paul Tsongas’s family name, a sizable Democratic
registration advantage, the high-profile support of many elected
officials, and outspending the Republican nearly 7-to-1. Ogonowski
believes he can be on the other end of a close election this time
around.
Kerry is not as popular as the Bay State’s senior senator, Ted
Kennedy. Every Republican who has ever run against Kerry has broken
40 percent of the vote, while only two — George Cabot Lodge in
1962 and Mitt Romney in 1994 — have ever done so against Kennedy.
When the GOP punted on the 2002 race against Kerry, a Libertarian
still managed to win 19 percent. It’s still a long shot, but
exactly the kind of contest the Republicans need to make
competitive to avoid a debacle in next year’s Senate
races.
“He’s never in the state,” Ogonowski says of Kerry, echoing a
common complaint. “You especially hear that out in western
Massachusetts. Whatever my disagreements with Ted Kennedy, people
out here talk about him with a different tone.” Absence does not
always make the heart grow fonder. A Suffolk University poll last
year found that 56 percent of Massachusetts voters wanted a new
senator while only 37 percent thought Kerry should run again. As
Republican consultant Charles Manning told Roll Call,
“He’s an aloof patrician who never really has connected with the
people here.”
Kerry’s critics also argue that he has little to show for nearly
24 years in the Senate. In addition to neglecting the commonwealth,
he has been the primary sponsor of only nine bills that have
actually been signed into law (the last one in
1999). Even some liberals dislike Kerry. Ed Reilly is challenging
him in the Democratic primary, arguing that the incumbent is too
timid about ending the Iraq war, promoting same-sex marriage, and
impeaching President Bush.
For his part, Ogonowski plans to run to Kerry’s right on taxes,
government spending, earmark reform, and illegal immigration while
taking a populist line on energy independence. He stresses
bipartisanship — “It doesn’t matter whether something is a
Republican idea or a Democrat idea” — in a state where a plurality
of the registered voters are independents. He also emphasizes his
biography as a military man whose pilot brother was murdered by the
9/11 hijackers. It’s a narrative similar to the one that gave
Congresswoman Tsongas a scare in last year’s special election.
Talk of bipartisanship notwithstanding, won’t Ogonowski be hurt
by the Republican label? In his last race, it was an open seat,
there were no Democratic coattails for his opponent to grab onto,
and still he came up short. A presidential election year is likely
to prove an even more challenging environment for a Republican.
Bill Clinton helped Kerry survive a strong challenge by Bill Weld
in 1996.
Ogonowski points to a Survey USA poll showing John McCain tied with likely
Democratic nominee Barack Obama, arguing that he might be able to
count on McCain’s coattails this time around. Ronald Reagan carried
Massachusetts twice in the 1980s. Weld, Paul Cellucci, Mitt Romney,
and former state Treasurer Joe Malone all won statewide between
1990 and 2002. The last Republicans to represent Massachusetts in
Congress, Peter Blute and Peter Torkildsen, managed to overcome a
Clinton landslide in 1992.
That’s enough to keep Ogonowski going as a Republican candidate
in the country’s bluest state. That and a few more cups of
coffee.
