For a substantial part of America's history, inflation was seen as a positive to be pursued.
As the Federal Reserve weighs the benefits of monetary easing
against the dangers of monetary inflation, it is easy to lose sight
of the bigger resolution that has occurred over the last quarter
century. For a substantial part of America's history and a
significant part of its population, inflation was seen as a
positive to be pursued. Yet within a generation, that perception
has completely reversed. This fundamental change has been global
and happened in spite of entrenched support from governments,
economists, and policy-makers. It should hearten conservatives
that, despite the vagaries of political battles, they are winning
the larger economic war.
The history of strong support for an inflationary monetary
policy is long and deep in America. Nineteenth-century America was
predominantly rural and largely populated by small farmers. In
general, farmers are almost invariably debtors, often needing
credit to purchase land and supplies between harvests. Even large
landowners were likely to be land-rich and cash-poor. As such, an
inflationary monetary policy offered them relief from their debts
-- affording them easier repayment with depreciated dollars.
Unsurprisingly, inflationary monetary policies were sought
through various political movements and means. The Greenback Party
pursued inflation through a continuation of paper currency
following the Civil War, while the Populists sought it by
supplementing gold-backed dollars with cheaper silver. Political
efforts crested in 1896 when the Democrat party was captivated, and
then captured, by William Jennings Bryan. Stampeded by his "Cross
of Gold" speech at its Chicago convention, Bryan won the first of
three Democratic nominations.
Though the Democratic Party split (incumbent Democratic
President Grover Cleveland opposed him) and despite running as
virtually a single-issue candidate, Bryan still managed to gain 47
percent of the popular vote, carried 22 states (to McKinley's 23),
and 176 electoral votes (to McKinley's 271).
Silver and inflation retained their sirens' song in the 20th
century. In 1933, FDR still felt obliged to "do something" for
silver. The Great Depression elevated inflation to acceptable
monetary policy. It became ensconced into economic theory, later
most notably in the so-called Phillips curve, whereby inflation
became linked to lower unemployment.
Nor was its support limited to economists. Governments and
policy-makers also benefited from inflation. Excess money creation
gave the government additional resources, without additional taxing
or borrowing. It generated additional revenue as "bracket creep"
drove individuals into higher tax brackets. And it effectively
depreciated government debt by allowing repayment with depreciated
dollars. For policy-makers, inflation was a powerful lever they
could seemingly pull at will to adjust the economy.
No longer just a response to the Depression, inflation had
become a positive policy in its own right. And especially so for
the worker. Higher inflation meant higher demand for workers and
higher employment and wages.
WHILE THIS WAS THE PREDOMINANT economic view following WWII, it
certainly was not universal. Economist Milton Friedman was its
foremost critic, explaining inflation as simply money creation in
excess of output, and his work helped sap inflation's theoretical
foundation. More significantly, economic performance in the 1960s
and 1970s frayed the positive connection between inflation and
lower unemployment. Maintaining steady levels of unemployment then
began requiring increasing levels of inflation -- termed
stagflation.
Finally, increasing inflation levels began yielding increasing
levels of unemployment. Friedman's 1977 Nobel lecture occurred at
that economic juncture: "The present situation cannot last. It will
either degenerate into hyperinflation and radical change, or
institutions will adjust to a situation of chronic inflation, or
governments will adopt policies that will produce a low rate of
inflation and less government intervention into the fixing of
prices."
The decision at this crossroads was to turn away from inflation.
Despite an array of history, economists, governments, and
policy-makers, inflation was swept away in just a quarter of a
century. And it happened globally, not just in the U.S. Instead of
desirable policy to be pursued, inflation now universally carries
the mark of economic failure.
Such sudden and widespread a collapse in thought and practice
rarely happens. Yet theory has now discredited, experience
repudiated, and the electorate renounced it.
SUCH ANIMADVERSION OFFERS us a couple of valuable reminders. One is
the population's improved economic condition. While many continue
to insist that modern society pauperizes the bulk of her people,
the changed perception of inflation argues otherwise. Today's
population is no longer dominated by debtors for whom inflation
offers relief. They are now largely asset holders for whom
inflation is now a threat.
The demise of inflation's acceptability also reminds us of the
limits of conventional wisdom. This was no minor policy that fell
from grace. Governments and economies espoused it and rested on it.
Yet ultimately expertise extends no further than experience. Within
a generation that experience re-educated over a century of thought
and rewrote the verdict on inflation around the world. By so doing,
it continues to caution us on accepting the consensus of
certitude.
Finally, inflation's fall from grace should remind conservatives
they are winning the economic war. The last quarter of a century
has seen not only inflation's demise but a host of the Left's
economic tools. State-run economies are historical relics, as are
price controls and rationing. Though they now seem antiquated, all
existed relatively recently. In their absence, markets are freer,
more widespread, and the world's population is benefiting
accordingly. To apply Friedman's verdict on inflation more broadly:
"brute experience [has] proved far more potent than the strongest
of political or ideological preferences." Inevitably, such will
always be the case.
About the Author
J.T. Young served in the Department of Treasury and the Office of Management and Budget from 2001 to 2004 and as a Congressional staff member from 1987 to 2000.