For the first time in months, Republicans are feeling optimistic
about this year's presidential election. Barack Obama and Hillary
Clinton are damaging each other when they are not self-destructing.
John McCain is polling competitively both in national head-to-head
match-ups and in battleground states. One encounters cheerful
conservatives for the first time since the afterglow of 2004.
Get over it. The congressional elections are at least as
important as the presidential race and there things don't look
quite so rosy for Republicans. Remember this basic rule of thumb:
The more Democratic the next Congress, the more liberal the next
president will be in the first two years. This rule is likely to
hold no matter if it is Obama, Clinton, or McCain putting their
hand on the Bible on Jan. 20, 2009. Without a critical mass of
Republicans, there will be no check on President Clinton or Obama
and President McCain will sign a slew of legislation along the
lines of McCain-Kennedy, McCain-Feingold, and McCain-Lieberman.
Let's start by looking at the House, where Republican prospects
ought to be better. The Democrats picked a lot of the low hanging
fruit in 2006. Republicans would be nearly a third of the way to a
majority if they just won back all the reliably GOP seats they lost
two years ago because of scandals. Democratic freshmen from
long-term GOP districts should be on the defensive, especially the
Brad Ellsworths and Heath Shulers who needed some conservative
votes to win.
Instead the GOP is continuing to lose ground in red districts,
such as the recent special election loss of former House Speaker
Dennis Hastert's seat. Candidate recruitment has faltered. Melissa
Bean, the Illinois Democrat who toppled Phil Crane in 2004, has an
A-List challenger. Ohio's Zack Space, New York's John Hall, and
Florida's Ron Klein do not. Neither do Indiana's Ellsworth or North
Carolina's Shuler, which does not bode well for efforts to retake
the House.
TO MAKE MATTERS worse, the Cook Political Report estimates that
Republicans hold 12 of the 14 seats most likely to switch parties
in November. Twenty-two Republicans have announced their retirement
from the House compared to just six Democrats. These retirements
include GOP incumbents holding at-risk seats. Departing Congressman
Tom Reynolds of New York, for example, beat an eccentric Democratic
challenger by just four points in 2006.
The GOP's Senate math is even more daunting. Structurally, the
Republicans were always going to be at a disadvantage since they
had to defend 23 seats to the Democrats' 12. Several specific races
have made matters even worse. Virginia, the only Southern state to
vote for Gerald Ford over Jimmy Carter in 1976, is the Democrats'
best pick-up opportunity. In this fall's Old Dominion Senate race,
former Democratic Gov. Mark Warner is almost certain to trounce his
Republican predecessor Jim Gilmore.
New Hampshire, New England's last Republican bastion, is in the
midst of blue tide. Consequently, GOP Sen. John Sununu is at
serious risk of being bumped off by former Democratic Gov. Jeanne
Shaheen in a rematch from six years ago. Shaheen might have won the
seat in 2002 if Sununu hadn't primaried Sen. Bob Smith.
Joining Sununu on the Democrats' most wanted senators list are
Gordon Smith of Oregon, Norm Coleman of Minnesota, and Susan
Collins of Maine, all of whom have strong Democratic challengers.
The Democrats have also recruited Mark Udall to run for a
Republican open seat in Colorado and Tom Udall to do the same in
New Mexico. The only Democratic incumbent facing a serious GOP
challenger is Mary Landrieu in Louisiana.
A miracle or a Democratic implosion could deliver the Senate to
the GOP. Faith teaches us that the former is possible, experience
proves the latter. Nevertheless, a bigger Democratic majority is
the way to bet. Fortunately, all Republicans really need to have a
say in how the country is run is just 41 Senate seats. Senate
Republicans have proved this ever since Harry Reid became majority
leader, frustrating the Democrats on Iraq, the alternative minimum
tax, the stimulus package, card check, and countless other pieces
of legislation.
CAN THE DEMOCRATS get to a filibuster-proof majority? Only by
running the table against vulnerable Republicans and putting
harder-to-reach states like Senate Minority Leader Mitch
McConnell's Kentucky in play. That may be a tall order. Collins is
still leading in Maine; conservative Republican Bob Schaeffer is
competitive against Udall in Colorado; Smith has won some tough
races in Oregon. Even Coleman, who is trailing, is close enough
that he might not end up Democratic challenger Al Franken's punch
line.
On the other hand, the Democrats could reach deeper into
Republican territory. Alaska Sen. Ted Stevens is 84 and under
investigation by the feds. Liberal groups are raising money for a
challenge to McConnell. In most recent elections, a majority of the
close Senate races have cut one party's way. In 2002, the
Republicans won all of them except for South Dakota. In 2006, the
Democrats won all of them except for Tennessee.
The ideological composition of the Republicans who return to the
Senate will also be important. If moderates like Collins and Smith
are reelected while conservatives like Sununu fall, it will be
harder to keep filibusters together even if there are more than 41
Republicans. Bob Dole was able to derail Hillarycare and came
within one vote of stopping the 1993 Clinton tax increase with just
43 Republican senators, including such Rockefeller liberals as John
Chafee, Jim Jeffords, David Durenberger, and Mark Hatfield. But
some of McConnell's filibusters have prevailed by close enough
margins as it is.
Further complicating matters is the presidential election.
Republicans haven't won most close Senate races while a Democrat
rode to the White House since 1992, when Arlen Specter, Bob
Packwood, Kit Bond, Alfonse D'Amato, and John McCain defied
Clinton's coattails while Lauch Faircloth and Paul Coverdell picked
off Democratic incumbents. If McCain carries swing states like New
Hampshire, Minnesota, Colorado and New Mexico or runs up huge
margins in red states like Kentucky or even Virginia, it could make
the difference in the Senate contests.
In other words, Republicans must hope that McCain does well
enough to pull some Senate candidates across the finish line.
Conservatives should hope there are enough Republicans to pull
McCain to the right.
topics:
John McCain, Barack Obama, Harry Reid, Iraq, NATO, Alaska
