Not every politician gets a week like the one John McCain got
last week, and most of his good fortune was not of his making. Yes,
he did clear the threshold of 1191 delegates to officially gain the
nomination and, yes, that did lead to a helpful photo-op at the
White House. But the real gifts were delivered by his potential
Democratic rivals and by the Democratic Party itself.
Most obviously, Hillary Clinton did not quietly exit the stage.
By beating Obama badly in Ohio, she ensured the race would go on
and the intra-party warfare would continue. Her victories revealed
Obama’s weakness in attracting lower income whites and Hispanics,
two groups he would need to hold in November.
Barack Obama also lent credence to Clinton’s point that maybe
foreign policy leadership does require experience when his advisers
were caught assuring foreigners that their boss does not really
mean all that wacky stuff about reneging on NAFTA and bugging out
of Iraq when things are improving.
Obama’s efforts to shoo away the offenders did not settle the
underlying dilemma — is he being disingenuous with voters or does
he not have command over his advisers? Suddenly there did
seem to be a stature gap between him and Clinton, who can at least
keep her advisers from publicly undermining her policy
pronouncements.
McCain got the soundbite equivalent of “I voted for the $87
million before I voted against it” when Obama adviser Susan Rice
said of the Democratic contenders, “They’re both not ready to have
that 3 a.m. phone call.” Clinton pitched in as well, repeatedly
saying that both she and McCain have a lifetime of experience but
Obama…maybe not so much.
These events reinforced the reason for McCain’s candidacy: he is
unmatched in foreign policy acumen and experience. Clinton will
make half the argument on a daily basis, lambasting Obama as a
neophyte. Obama will make the other half, pointing out that Clinton
is scarcely better prepared. Meanwhile, McCain will be jetting to
foreign countries, meeting with foreign leaders and proving his
point that he is the only one ready for national security
responsibility.
And last week’s attack on the military recruiting station in New
York City and the terrorist shootings in Jerusalem served as
reminders, if any were needed, that we live in dangerous times.
HOWARD DEAN AND the Democratic Party did their part as well. The
problem: Michigan and Florida. Their solution: They have not a
clue.
The prospect of redo primaries or an ongoing rules fight over
whether to exclude the delegates gives Clinton more reason to
soldier on. The possibility that no arrangement can be found and
that two of the most populous states will have no say in selecting
the Democratic nominee raises the delicious prospect that a
Democratic nomination arrived at without allowing every vote to be
counted. It would reek of unfairness and send many voters (at least
in Florida) running into McCain’s open arms in November.
While all of this was going on, the Democrats and the DNC found
it impossible to turn their guns on McCain, who is financially and
organizationally at his most vulnerable. As Bob Dole found out in
1996, an underfunded Republican in the post-nomination and
pre-convention period can collapse under attacks from a well
organized and funded opposition. But the Democrats have too much on
their hands to bother much with McCain, a situation that may go on
for weeks or even months.
Now, many have speculated that McCain has benefited from one of
the longest streaks of good luck in history. Mike Huckabee rose
just in time to topple Mitt Romney. Rudy Giuliani left New
Hampshire and virtually evacuated the race, leaving the early
primary states to McCain. The surge worked in time for primary
voters to appreciate McCain’s role in its success.
What politician has been this fortunate? The Democrats are
starting to worry that McCain’s luck has only just begun.
