For the third time in this race, Barack Obama headed into
election night with the opportunity to deliver a knockout blow to
the campaign of Hillary Clinton. And for the third time, he let
Clinton escape from the corner to fight another round.
Obama’s first chance came when he rode a wave of change from
Iowa into New Hampshire, and opened up a double-digit lead in
polls. Then Clinton pulled off an amazing upset. Heading into Super
Tuesday, Obama had another chance to send Clinton packing by
winning in California or one of the other large states, but he was
unable to overcome her built in advantages.
On Tuesday, the story was similar. Though just weeks ago Clinton
enjoyed massive leads in Ohio and Texas and the conventional wisdom
was that all Obama needed to do was come close enough in the states
to solidify his delegate lead, the premature coronation of Obama by
the media raised the expectations.
Obama came into last night with a string of 11 consecutive
victories, a comfortable lead in the delegate count, and a
tremendous money advantage. Suddenly, Clinton pulling off a solid
win in Ohio and a small victory in Texas’s primary became enough
for her to provide a rationale to stay in the race.
Exit polls showed that late deciders overwhelmingly voted for
Clinton. Last week, the Obama campaign charged that Clinton would
unleash a “kitchen sink” strategy of attack against Obama in hopes
that something would stick, and they were right.
In the build up to Tuesday, the Clinton campaign seized on
reports that Obama’s top economic advisor had assured Canadians
that Obama didn’t really believe his harsh rhetoric on NAFTA, ran a
“red telephone” ad suggesting he wasn’t ready to be commander in
chief, and questioned his relationship with the indicted Tony
Rezko. This strategy appears to have worked.
“The people of Ohio have said loudly and clearly: we’re going
on, we’re going strong, and we’re going all the way,” an exuberant
Clinton declared to supporters in Columbus, portraying herself as
an underdog who was counted out and “refused to be knocked
out.”
At this point Clinton’s rationale for staying in the race is to
argue to superdelegates that she has won the major states such as
New York, New Jersey, California, Massachusetts, Texas, and the
bellwether of Ohio. With Pennsylvania coming up on April 22 — a
state that favors Clinton because it is similar in makeup to Ohio
and because Gov. Ed Rendell is a strong supporter — she has the
chance to pick up another big victory.
Furthermore, with Obama now undergoing media scrutiny for the
first time, the longer she hangs in, the more chance there is for
something unpredictable to happen that could hinder Obama’s
campaign.
THAT DOESN”T MEAN that Clinton doesn’t still have her work cut out
for her. Obama is well positioned to win the caucus in Texas that
was held after the primary, and may very well come out of the state
with more delegates. This Saturday, Wyoming votes followed by
Mississippi next Tuesday. Both states fit the profile of states
Obama has already won, and offer him the chance to expand his
delegate lead. While Clinton may win Pennsylvania, Obama could
counter with a huge victory in North Carolina two weeks later.
But what last night made clear is that this will be a bitterly
fought race that will continue at least until late April, very
possibly until June in Puerto Rico, and perhaps even until the
Democratic National Convention in Denver this August.
And if last night were any indication, it could get ugly between
the two campaigns, with the potential for lawsuits that could turn
the race into a repeat of Florida in 2000. As voting was still
going on in Texas, the Clinton campaign held an “emergency”
conference call with reporters to discuss voting
irregularities in Texas and claim that Clinton supporters were
“locked out” of caucus sites by Obama backers. Campaign officials
declared “all options are on the table” as far as action they may
take to address the problem.
The call became a circus when Bob Bauer, Obama’s general
counsel, crashed the question and answer session and demanded that
Clinton officials “stop attacking the caucus process that didn’t
start bothering the Clinton campaign until it ran a series of
fairly extraordinary losses.” A heated exchange with Howard
Wolfson, Clinton’s communications director, ensued.
Meanwhile, Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland, who campaigned vigorously
for Clinton and is one of her strongest supporters, flashed the
nuclear option. Warming up supporters at Clinton’s victory rally,
Strickland shouted to cheers, “Let us go to Michigan and Florida.”
Clinton won both states, but they were penalized by the Democratic
Party for holding their nominating contests too early and stripped
of all of their delegates. Candidates didn’t campaign in either
state and Obama wasn’t even on the ballot in Michigan.
The issue was supposed to be moot because the Democratic race
was supposed to be locked up by now, but with the race dragging on
it remains a prominent and barbed issue: Should Clinton be able to
rewrite the rules in the middle of the process and allow Michigan
and Florida delegates to be seated at the convention even though
she agreed to a system under which they would not? Should voters in
two major states be denied their right to have their voices heard?
What legal issues are raised by having new primaries in the two
states?
These questions will be debated in the coming weeks and months.
But one thing is for sure. John McCain is one happy man this
morning.
