Journalists and intelligence officers are well acquainted with
the many wild theories that constitute conventional wisdom among
the people and pundits of the Middle East. Characterizing the
American military presence in Iraq as a return of the Crusaders
with ambitions to destroy Islam has been a basic theme.
It is interesting, therefore, that challenges to this perceived
central concept of western ambition are now being floated by these
same indigenous conspiracy theorists. The problem, as usual, is to
determine whether any of this outlandish information and analysis
holds even a kernel of truth.
Beirut and Cairo are two of the most prolific centers for the
production of arcane intelligence. Most recently, in concert with
the well-publicized Barack Obama call for immediate withdrawal of
U.S. military forces from Iraq, there has been a bumper crop of
rumors concerning the impact of an American pullout.
Counter-intuitively, the consensus is that a speedy departure of
the U.S. military actually scares the Middle East region from Syria
to Saudi Arabia.
FROM BEIRUT COMES the story that the Syrians are convinced the
Israelis are about to attack them in order to cut off Hezbollah’s
supply route and lines of retreat when Israel Defense Forces next
attack Lebanon.
That seemingly logical fear is balanced, however, with a special
Lebanese twist. Supposedly Bashir al Assad counts on the American
military presence in Iraq giving Israel the confidence to stay out
of Syria. Thinking “outside the box” has special meaning for the
Middle East.
According to coffee purveyors in a Cairo souk, “everyone” in the
region knows that Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States benefit mightily
from the American military presence in Iraq. The big, bad Persian
wolf cannot harbor the ideas it traditionally has had to dominate
its Gulf neighbors.
This Cairo source suggests that the same “everyone” knows the
Americans keep the Iraqi Shia in check, much to Saudi delight.
“Everyone” knows all this and the fact that the Americans spend
billions in the region to maintain their forces.
But the big winner in the Arabian Nights fantasies is Iran. As
long as there is a sizeable U.S. contingent in Iraq, Tehran has an
easily available bete noir with which to petrify and focus
the attention of the Iranian people.
The Great Satan and his army is right next door and ready to
pounce. Any and all privations are easily attributed to the
Americans and their proximity makes the claim all the more
plausible. Ahmadinejad needs the Americans in Iraq. Our coffee guy,
Daoud, seems a bit sharper on this one.
Daoud’s brother, the internationalist, says the Russians find
the large US military in the region to be a definite disadvantage.
Those American troops with all their hi-tech equipment are a
constant reminder of the inadequacy of the Russian Army.
Moscow wants the Obama plan to succeed so they can get their oil
and gas people into Iraq as soon as possible to follow up on the
development contracts begun with Saddam. Hmmm.
AND SO IT GOES: Wild stories passing as considered thought
proliferate the popular scene, but far more dangerously, also the
regional foreign affairs establishment. It’s amazing how gullible
diplomats and other government officials are in the Middle East.
Every rumor is turned somewhere into an intelligence
assessment.
In other words, in the Middle East the story is more important
than the subject. In fact the ability to tell a story lifts the
narrator far above his listeners. Classical Arabic is a language
that lends itself to both flowery generalization and allegory. The
Westerner with a rudimentary knowledge of street language may be
able to communicate but never will be able to fully comprehend.
So it is also with analyzing events and intentions in Middle
Eastern political life. Some of the Arab and Persian obfuscation
and dissemblance is meant to camouflage true meaning, some to give
a false impression, and some just to be polite and hospitable.
Information gathered from sources in “the street” has all these
characteristics and so do their official counterparts.
In the end one always must search for the true meaning of the
information passed on — and then not be too sure in the
assessment.
Maybe the Syrians really are counting on the American army to
hold back the Israelis. And maybe so are the Israelis?
