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In defense of Nixon, he was not the first Republican since the advent of FDR's New Deal to try this approach. As time moved on, he would prove not to be the last, either. For whatever reason, it seems the McCain strategy is the same as Nixon's in 1960. Let's call the roll of other moderate Republican presidential campaigns, their strategies and their results.

* 1940 -- Wendell Willkie. As recorded by one biographer, his nomination was "acclaimed by the press as...revolutionary." The mainstream media of the day just loved the guy. Why? Again, in the words of a biographer of the day, Willkie was bent on "a reinterpretation by the Republican Party of the meaning of free enterprise." Instead of drawing a sharp distinction between himself and FDR, Willkie endorsed a litany of New Deal programs outright. "Reaching out" to the Independents and Democrats of the day just as McCain is trying to do now, he supported everything from FDR's Wagner Labor Relations Act to expanding the federal role in social security to soil conservation programs, commodity loans, crop insurance etc. Deliberately he set out to embrace FDR's New Deal -- just a little less so. Results? Willkie lost to FDR, carrying ten states and 44% of the vote.

* 1944 -- Thomas E. Dewey. The Governor of New York, Dewey had not much more than contempt for the whole idea of conservatism. His version of "reaching out" meant accepting the philosophy behind the New Deal programs, but criticizing various programs for inefficiency or corruption or even Communist influence. The leading light of the Republican liberal Eastern Establishment, Dewey lost to FDR, 53% to 45%.

* 1948 -- Thomas E. Dewey. Re-nominated, Dewey famously campaigned a second time as a liberal Republican. He was overwhelmingly favored to win. He didn't. In a classic example of moderate GOP thinking, Dewey made it plain that he wanted to "reach out" by showing a willingness to accommodate the New Deal. One Dewey biographer says FDR's longtime aide Samuel Rosenman "had taken one look at Dewey's platform and pronounced it fit for any New Dealer to run on." Conservative leader Senator Robert Taft of Ohio was convinced this was a mistake. Dewey insisted, and quite famously lost a race every poll said he had in the bag. Said an angry Taft afterwards: "The only way to handle Truman was to hit him every time he opened his mouth. The result of the election was a tragedy, largely because it was entirely unnecessary. Dewey could have won, and we could have elected a Republican Congress if the right kind of campaign had been put on." As for Dewey, his version of "reaching out" is perhaps best captured in this anecdote from his days as governor. Dewey confessed he couldn't understand why his support of a particular big government program had not profited him politically. "Why, I supported a big housing project out on Long Island and when I ran for governor all the tenants voted against me." Dewey lost to Truman 49% to 45%.

* 1960 -- Richard Nixon. Campaigning on the theme that he and JFK really weren't that different except in the experience department, Nixon lost, 49.7% to 49.5%

* 1976 -- Gerald Ford. Succeeding Nixon on Nixon's resignation, Ford's first signal to the country was making liberal GOP icon, Dewey protege and ex-New York Governor Nelson Rockefeller vice president. Running to the left of primary challenger Ronald Reagan, Ford grudgingly replaced Rocky, albeit with the moderate Bob Dole. He continued his "reaching out" by running a campaign designed to appeal to moderates. Ford lost to Jimmy Carter, 50% to 48%. (Later, the two ex-presidents Ford and Carter would become fast friends, sharing a common disdain for Reagan.)

* 1992 -- George H.W. Bush. Elected in 1988 by aggressively presenting himself as Ronald Reagan's vice president and heir, sharply attacking liberal Massachusetts Governor Michael Dukakis for everything from his ACLU membership to support for flag burning and paroling convicted murderer Willie Horton. Promising Americans "read my lips: no new taxes," from the moment of his inaugural speech Bush concentrated not on governing as a conservative but on "reaching out" to liberal Democrats. Specifically, in McCain fashion, he said this: "To my friends -- and yes, I do mean friends -- in the loyal opposition -- and yes, I mean loyal: I put out my hand. I am putting out my hand to you, Mr. Speaker. I am putting out my hand to you, Mr. Majority Leader. For this is the thing: This is the age of the offered hand." The age of the offered hand turned out to mean breaking his tax pledge, deserting his conservative principles and thus his conservative base. Bush lost to Bill Clinton, 43% to 37%, with Ross Perot running as an independent conservative getting 18%.

* 1996 -- Bob Dole. Dole, like McCain a revered war hero, had a long record as a moderate. Once accused by Newt Gingrich of being the "tax collector for the welfare state," he campaigned as a moderate Republican. Even putting one-time ideological nemesis Jack Kemp on his ticket could not help overcome his decades-long reputation. He lost to Clinton 49% to 40%, with just over 8% going to Perot.

IN 1952 AND 1956, AFTER two-plus decades of FDR and Truman, GOP moderates hid behind the smile of Eisenhower, the famously successful general-hero of the day who had defeated Hitler and won World War II. Otherwise, left on their own to "reach out" the moderates lost. Seven times. From Willkie to Dewey to Dole, from 1940 to 1996, the moderate GOP formula for "reaching out" to win the presidency has been tried. It failed.

After the Goldwater realignment, moderates or conservatives who ran for president as conservatives won. Nixon never made his 1960 mistake again. Running on a sharply drawn "law and order" platform in 1968, Nixon won. Repeating this approach he charged McGovern in 1972 with supporting "acid, abortion and amnesty" (the latter for Vietnam War deserters), drew a stark line between himself and his opponent and won in a 49-state landslide. Reagan won twice, landslides both. Bush 41 triumphed once as a conservative, and, learning from Dad's 1992 mistake, Bush 43 won twice, albeit by the grace of those chads the first time.) Of the eight elections involved -- 1964, 1968, 1972, 1980, 1984,1988, 2000, 2004 -- nominees running flat out as a conservative won the White House seven times.

This isn't hard to understand.

Truce with the McCainiacs based on the National Review prescription? Sure. Winning with the McCain "reach out" approach? Doubtful.

Why not a conservative campaign?

Why not victory?

topics:
Taxes, Bill Clinton, Mainstream Media, Television, Social Security, Abortion, Law, NATO, Conservatism, Oil