Interesting scenarios, all.
However, in order for his column’s thesis to work, Quin assumes that the majority of those who vote in 2008 Republican primaries are in fact conservative.
Based on my research of the exit polls from those Republican cauci/primaries that have been held thus far, the vast majority of voters have been either moderate or have a right-side/extreme-left-of-center bent to them (a la Bloomberg).
As stated, the only way this could work would be to deny a majority to any one candidate. With the Governator endorsement in CA, and with the former NY mayor’s endorsement, that proposal seems unlikely. After wins there, the inertia would be too much.
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