Memo to Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, Mike Pence of Indiana,
and John Thune of South Dakota, and perhaps to Butch Otter of
Idaho, too: It’s time for you gentlemen to run for president.
Yes, of the United States. Yes, this year.
Here’s the situation: Mainstream conservatives are being routed
in this year’s presidential contests. And if John McCain or, less
likely, Mike Huckabee goes into the Republican National Convention
in Minneapolis with a first-ballot majority, the conservative
movement will be completely shut out of a general election
presidential campaign for the first time since 1976. For the
movement that has brought peace, triumph and prosperity to this
nation for 27 years, such an outcome would be a disaster — and,
worse, it would be a disaster for the country.
But there’s a way to fight back. A way to ensure clout at the
convention, and perhaps still to find a way for a real conservative
still to get the nomination. The way to do so is to force an open
convention — a convention where nobody enters the proceedings with
enough pledged delegates to secure the nomination, and thus where
the delegates actually must deliberate, and perhaps engage in
several rounds of balloting, before a victor emerges.
The way to force an open convention is for conservative
candidates to amass delegates pledged to themselves rather than to
McCain or Huckabee. And the way to do that is by reviving the old
stratagem of the “favorite son” candidacy. Rather than having a
candidate try to run nationally, a candidate can compete just in
his own home state. Win the state, or at least a majority of the
delegates thereof, and you go to the convention with some
bargaining power.
The filing deadlines for presidential primaries or caucuses in
seven states, boasting 285 convention delegates, occur
after Super Tuesday. Mega-state Pennsylvania, with 74
delegates, allows candidates to qualify up until Feb. 12. The
filing deadline in South Dakota isn’t until March 25. If favorite
sons run and win in all those states, and if Mitt Romney continues
to fight McCain and Huckabee throughout the primary season, then
the favorites sons could, collectively, hold the balance of power
at an open convention.
IN RECENT WEEKS, Pennsylvania’s former Sen. Santorum has gone on a
tear in criticizing his former colleague McCain. He has been saying
that behind closed doors in the Senate, McCain consistently fights
against even allowing floor consideration for conservative issue
after conservative issue. Well, here is Santorum’s chance to block
McCain: Qualify for the presidential primary in Pennsylvania, fight
a hard campaign, and win it.
Thune should do the same for the South Dakota contest. Pence
should do the same for Indiana. Keenan and Otter should do the same
in their states. And a leading conservative should take the plunge
in Nebraska, New Mexico, and Oregon, too.
Cynics will say it would never work. By the time Pennsylvanians
vote on April 22, they will say, the race will be over.
Maybe, maybe not. Here’s the thing: Nobody has tried something
like this for such a long time that the very newness of it, and the
uncertainty, could keep the race alive. A candidate who loses most
races on Super Tuesday, but who still garners significant
delegates, might be encouraged to remain in the race rather than
drop out. Pundits will have such a field day speculating about
whether a series of favorite-son candidacies could work that the
speculation itself would have the effect of stopping the tendency
toward a premature coronation of a front-running candidate before
nearly half the country has even voted. And candidates who have
already dropped out might even be encouraged to reconsider. With a
new paradigm at work, they might figure, just about
anything could happen.
In that light, Fred Thompson ought to announce that he is asking
Tennessee Republicans to vote for him after all on Super Tuesday.
Tell them he wants to be his home state’s favorite son, in order to
carry a conservative message and some conservative bargaining chips
to the national convention. And if Thompson really had gumption, he
could tell Virginians voting on Feb. 12 that they should consider a
vote for him to be the equivalent of a vote for a favorite-son
candidacy of his friend and supporter George Allen, to whom he
would publicly cede any delegates Thompson might win that day.
And so on. Party rules allow delegates to vote for any candidate
they choose (subject to various state laws), regardless of whether
the candidate is formally nominated. The greater the number of
favorite sons who announce candidacies or surrogate candidacies in
their respective states, the more uncertainty there would be. In
this case, uncertainty would be a good thing. An open convention
would be a good thing. It would garner unprecedented TV
attention.
The sight of actual, old-style, person-to-person, republican
government in action could enthrall a nation of voters made cynical
by modern media campaigns. Here, they would see, ordinary citizens
participating in the process, rather than professional politicians,
would actually be making decisions that mean something for the
future of their country.
BUT WHY, ONE MIGHT ASK, should conservatives go to such
trouble?
Because conservatives ought to be horrified by the prospect of
John McCain winning the nomination without first needing to
earn our votes at a convention rather than merely being
ceded those votes by default.
Because John McCain disdains the conservative movement. Because
he has a temper so volcanic that Democrats could easily bait him
into a “Howard Dean moment” in the fall that ruins his campaign and
hands a landslide to either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama.
Because McCain has run an entirely dishonorable, mendacious primary
campaign so far. Because, from a conservative standpoint, McCain is
bad on border security, bad on taxes, bad on judges, bad on respect
for the letter of the Constitution, bad on respecting those who
disagree with him, bad on energy exploration, bad on free-market
economics, and absolutely horrendous in his zealous support for
excessive regulation. He hearkens back not to Ronald Reagan’s
principles but, quite openly, to Teddy Roosevelt’s — and the truth
is that TR was a big-government interventionist with an
authoritarian streak and an out-of-control ego. Just like McCain is
today.
McCain might still win an open convention…but in an open
convention at which conservatives hold the balance of power, almost
anything could happen. At the very least, McCain would be forced to
take active steps to make conservatives part of his team rather
than shutting them out. He could be forced to choose a vice
presidential nominee more amenable to the conservative movement.
And he might still be defeated.
Thompson could re-emerge as a compromise, consensus choice. Or
Dick Cheney. Or Jeb Bush. Or SEC Chairman Chris Cox (also a perfect
VP choice for just about anybody). Or one of the favorite sons
themselves; I can think of far worse general-election scenarios
than a Republican ticket led by Thune, Santorum, or Pence.
Sen. Santorum, the first move is yours.
